I am excited to test drive the Model S tomorrow to find out what the hype is all about. If it is as great as everyone says I shall buy Tesla stock no matter what price it is. I am thinking 100 years ahead. The stock will be cheap by then. I will probably be dead but who cares. I will give the stock to my heirs!
I own a '13 BMW M5. I test drove the Tesla Model S today. It is a fine car but for the P85+ model with most options you clock in at around 110k after federal credit. You can get a '14 BMW M5 for the same money or less. Let me tell you as an owner and prospective Tesla Model S buyer that the BMW M5 is alot more car for the money than the Model S.
If you are going to drive just one sedan I could not understand why you would buy a Model S over an M5 unless you just love the novelty of "owning an electric only" car. The M is more luxurious, better ride, faster 0 to anything, first class technology packages. I was looking at the S as another car for m collection and could possibly still consider it but if I had to choose just one it is no contest.
If you are a Model S buyer go drive the new BMW M5. I guarantee unless you MUST have electric power for whatever reason (green, novelty, etc) there is no way you will buy the Model S over the M5. The difference is that much more dramatic. The fit, finish, comfort of the M5 is well above the Model S.
Not saying the Model S is poor or of low quality. It appears to have a good quality but can't compare. Sorry.
I predict Icahn explains to Cook that IF he wants to see the stock rebound which will take employee, wall street and consumer sentiment UP with it that he MUST do a 150B buyback. Not over 3 years but NOW. If they do they buy back about 1/3 the company. Part of it is self financing since dividends no longer need to be paid out to those shares bought back.
If they go big you'll also have massive accumulation of the stock over a few months time. This will propel the stock to 600 to 650 range as Icahn predicted and knows it would. IT's just a matter if Cook cares at all about the finance and stock side of the business. If he doesn#$%$ dead in the water. If he does then borrowing at 4% and buying back at least 150B if not 200B would bring the stock within reach of all time highs.
As it does this it breaks technical indicators on the upside so the technical traders all pile on. Then the momentum guys who don't even care about valuation join in. You could have a run up and overshoot to 1000. At that point the analysts will all chase it. Nobody left to buy and it comes back down to 600-750.
Mark this post as this is how it will play out IF Cook is willing to play bull and not be a #$%$
Two reasons. Under armor is a more heavily traded stock while Sierra is thinly traded. Sierra is a new recommendation while UA is not.
Look at the volume at noon and u see it explode the second the newsletter hit. The stock will pull back as day traders take profits
This is great. Now I can get in under 50. Nothing wrong with that. $2/share in 2015. PE of 25 on a 50% grower. Cheap stock. decades of growth ahead and many businesses to leverage and start using their network
While Tesla and gasoline vehicles share the risks of fire does the Tesla also include one additional risk of potential electrocution. All those amps in the batteries require special procedures for fireman to deal with them in a crash but could the driver or passenger be at risk in a certain type of crash? Just curious
Went to store. 5S sold out still. Guess this makes sense why no china mobile deal. Why do a deal with China Mobile when you can't make enough phones already for existing markets. Save that for the "off season" in Q1 or Q2 to get a boost once supply catches up and demand in existing markets cools a little.
There are two federal credits for Tesla Model S now that exist until they hit 200k units. Once that happens will Tesla eat the $12,500 subsidy no longer available or pass it along to the MSRP?
ZEV credit of $5000 per vehicle
Federal Tax Credit $7500 per vehicle
Total: $12,500 in Federal Tax credits
So if they are successful enough to sell 200k cars (at current pace 4 to 6 years) those credits are over. This means if Tesla eats the difference to hold MSRP the gross margin plummets. IF they pass it along you will have to pay another $12,500 to buy the already over priced for what you get Model S.
People are really long this stock at this market cap? Retail investors....always learn the hard way
The run is 100% from the Motley Fool reco. They release the newsletter new EST. You can see the spike right as it hits although a little front running is apparent. somebody knew right before and went in.
In a way a newsletter can almost become self fulfilling in its own performance. If you have a newsletter with performance then people follow you and your stock picks get exposure. The stocks run up or carry higher PE's and returns as a result of the picks. Fool readers are less traders and more holders so they tighten up their own supply.
That said I've done extremely well with the fool letters and picks. They have some ideas I never would have known about before they hit mainstream like ISRG, CMG, CELG.
They are nuts if they don't. Trading well over 100 times next years optimistic estimates.
My assumptions in the market show that the demand for 100k electric only vehicles that today come along with a subsidy (and won't soon) is limited. Tesla is riding the front side of the demand curve but once the initial demand is satisfied and used Tesla's start hitting the market as well the sales direct from Tesla will slow. Even at today's stock price they have to grow orders of magnitude over what wall street is estimating.
They should take advantage of this bubble and do the secondary of 10 million to 30 million shares to raise 2 billion to 6 billion and put a floor under the coming fall.
Apple "could" win but it would have to care about its stock.
They should split the stock 10 for 1. The last time there was a rumor about this the stock shot up like a rocket. You can't play the option hedges unless you have almost 50k to play with. This shuts people out and keeps smaller investors from buying shares as well. It also leads to psychology of expensive stocks as anything with a high price must be expensive (not true but the psychology never breaks this anchor). Witness the obsession with apple hitting 1000
2nd they should have and still could do a massive buyback as icahn suggests. Buyback 50% of the float if they have any conviction in apple's future. Part of it is self financing as it saves 50% of the dividends they would have to pay annually. The rest can come from cash flow and debt. Even if not 50% they need to do at least 1/3 if they care (they don't though)
I don't think I've seen a PEG this high before since the dotcom bubble. Yahoo shows it as 16.54. Tesla would have to outperform growth estimates by 15 fold to justify todays price. What month does the bubble pop? That will be the time to buy some PUT contracts in quantity
Looks like the "we will speak again in 3 weeks' is timed for roughly right before or right after the earnings and conference call. Is this a choreographed timing for the announcement of the massive buyback? At 150B they can take back 1/3 of the shares which is what they should have done 6 months ago.
Too bad Cook didn't listen to the email I sent him then which told him the same thing except he could have got the stock for under 400 bucks and been up 20 percent AND it would have been even more accretive to earnings. Yes he chose to ignore my email suggesting a massive 100B to 200B buyback. Son of a #$%$!
Chipotle says they might be able to do 3000 to 3500 stores. not 30,000. They can double from here the store count in 8 years. If you double earnings you get 20/share putting the stock trading 5 years out (assuming 5% same store sales) at a PE of 25 in 8 years. If the revenue slows to 10% you might see technical traders and momentum guys hopping off. A PE correction putting the PEG in line at 1.0 times growth would be 10 to 15 times EPS of 20 in 5 or 6 years giving you a price of 200 to 300/share
Longs better time their exit accordingly
Be fearful when others are greedy. If this was a pizza joint down the block no rational investor would purchase the entire business growing at 15% per year at 3 times that growth rate. Using any DCF or valuation method you want it this price for CMG is grossly overpaying for a business. You are buying a 2.08% earnings yield right now based on forward projections. At 15% growth it will take a long time for this investment to make sense.
That sense CMG (like TSLA, AMZN, NFLX) has now disconnected from the company underlying it. These are all now trading tickers. Momentum tickers. The earnings (a miss by CMG in this case or same with AMZN) are no longer relevant. What matters is that it keeps going up and the chart and momentum players will continue to pile on. This will happen until it stops. Could be a week, month or years. You never know with these. At some point though it WILL matter.
I do not recommend shorting these names. I sold most of my CMG. Playing with the houses money. At these levels it makes no sense to wait for the day when the ticker jockey's run to the next ticker
When it goes to 620 you can book a sizable loss. hopefully they will offset some gains you have somewhere else. good strategy to pay no taxes!
Tesla has 3 fires out of 20k vehicles. ICE does not have that fire to production rate. I've seen 100's and 100's of accidents in my life if not not 1000's and have only seen one fire on an ICE
Stock is going to $1000. Once you disconnect from fundamentals stocks do nothing but go up, until they don't and everyone bails. Until then ride the wave to $1000 and beyond