A must read for longs or shorts
the market is dramatically mispricing one or both of these. Kors is growing top line and same store sales at a very rapid pace with a bright outlook for 2015. Coach on the other hand continues to shrink revenues and same store sales are slumping and negative.
One would think a much higher mulitple for the company growing would be afforded. Not the case. Coach is trading at a 30% higher multiple premium to the fast growing Kors versus Coach's self imploding business.
It is sometimes funny to see just how irrational the market can be at times whether it be the momentum guys playing, the algo traders or technical guys watching charts.
Either way Kors is now setup for a big upside run once the charts and all the other BS start to all of a sudden "work". Since going public one thing has always worked and that is Kors top and bottom line growth and same store sales growth. Phenomenal every quarter and beaten every quarter.
I've seen this same thing play out before in many stocks that stay epoxied at low levels for months or years only to explode to the upside very quickly. Apple, Seagate, Adobe and tons of others. All stayed at depressed valuations while the businesses continued to prosper then all of a sudden the street one day decides to stop hating and ignoring the red headed stepchild.
That day for Kors could be next week, next month or further out but if coach vs Kors valuations in contrast to each one of their businesses, balance sheet and fundamentals tells us something it is that this day will come.
Most novice investors bail at the bottom and at the same time analysts who are late to the party also at the bottom. Good to see you couldn't take the pain. Along with this it's a great tell that the stock has bottomed. I predict 700 by year's end.
20 multiple. 35/share in earnings for 2016. 90/share in cash right now and growing. Range could be $700 to $790 for fair value. Google will grow top and bottom around 20% in '15 and '16.
The Firefox deal if media did homework they would realize google was keeping the lights on for them. They refused to pay up on a deal that wasn't profitable so they let Mayer pay up for it. 300 million. Maybe more. All for a browser share that is much smaller than it was when google paid 300M for it many years back. But what does Mayer care? She blew $100M on an employee (Castro) that was fired within a year. She has Alibaba money and doesn't care if market share gains are at a loss.
BTW Google could have paid up for Firefox placement but knew it wasn't economical. Firefox is losing share each year. Most users will find their way to google and change default search provider. So what appears as a loss in share will actually help google's bottom line because they are not overpaying Mozilla Firefox in an unprofitable deal.
Better yet remember google has put billions into many companies. They have lost billions (i.e. motorola) on these ventures and others. Firefox would have cost them 300M or so to re-up the contract. Imagine how bad it had to be for them not to do it and not care?
Yes, we should see $100 sometime in the next 6 to 18 months timeframe. Facebook earnings keep chugging along and we haven't even seen the full blown implementation in two of FB dark horses namely Instagram and Whatsapp.
FB on its own could power the stock to $100 but with these two properties there is much upside from there. .
Instagram now has over 300 million monthly active users. Makes twitter look tiny. Daily Instagram users over 75 million. more than 1 out of 10 internet users on Instagram.
Instagram is a cash cow.
Also heard Whatsapp is introducing voice calling. This can be huge with a billion users and growing.
All hail Zuck!
Analysts are weathermen on Wall Street. They predict. They get it wrong and right. Doesn't matter they don't lose their job either way.
Listen to analysts at your own peril. Ignore them for your own gain. There isn't an analyst out there that is worth anything. Each has their own agenda and almost all are clueless more than you can imagine.
naah...sector rotation. lots of big pharma and biotech falling today. the etf's are selling off in health/bio so they take jnj, celg, etc all along for the ride. funds rotating into apple right now cuz it's "working". when that stops working they come rotate right on back and make their rounds. not hard to see why they always underperform, is it
If you are a long term investor of celgene looking forward to that 2020 $12.50 number and a 20 PE pushing this to 250/share by then you want the price to be low between now and then. The lower the better. Why? Celgene is buying back stock and has tons of cash. The lower it is the more your shares are worth and the better ROI over the long term for those purchases.
Imagine you owned 50% of celgene and your partner (we'll call him MarketMan) offered you some of his shares each day to buy out his half. You both agreed over five years you will buy him out. Each day you can buy some of his shares at the price he offers to you. Some days MarketMan is feeling bold and strong and wants a lot so maybe you don't buy and wait for a better day. Some days he is in a panic or needs money for his new house or Porsche and he's willing to give you a huge discount. So you buy.
The buyback is no difference. Pray for lower prices. If you are not a day trader and are in this for a few years it only benefits you. Bob Hugen, Celgene CEO, is smart when it comes to buying back stock at opportune times.
MIDD is a textbook Buffett target. Great company, culture, product and the CEO is all Buffett. The only hurdle would not be price but whether Selim would want to be acquired by Berkshire or not.
I think there would be advantages for Middleby as some of the corporate functions and costs could be shared/offloaded to Berkshire which is nice. More than that is they can wipe out their debt and have as much access to low cost capital as they need to grow the business further.
Ovens and these types of durable goods are the exact kind of "boring" businesses Buffett seeks out. He would get a leading CEO into Berkshire organizatiion as well.
I just have no idea whether Selim would have an interest in it. I'm sure Buffett would and as you said it would be in the 8B range if not a little higher. We'll see if it ever happens. As a shareholder I am mixed on it. Alone MIDD is likely to outperform over the haul as long as Selim is running it. If swallowed by Berkshire we would get a one time pop now on it but then its done. No more gain after that. Let this run and it doubles every 3 to 5 years perhaps for another decade or two.
Sorry but nobody knows anything. This is a technical selloff. Weak hands also giving up. The chart guys selling as it falls through whatever imaginary X day line it broke through. At some point it stops. Builds "support" and then heads up. then they all buy back in as it heads back up.
There is no news on the stock. Just technical trading mechanics
I got my proxy vote. Catch this:
"APPROVAL OF AMENDMENTS TO THE FIFTH AMENDED AND RESTATED CERTIFICATE OF INCORPORATION TO FACILITATE STOCK SPLITS."
The vote closes 1/27/15 so it would have to be after that where something could be announced.
Question is do they do 2 for 1? 3 for 1? 5 for 1? 10 for 1?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Only reason is that the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Yes CMG is way overvalued by a big margin right now. At best you can put a 25 to 30x multiple on them. This brings the fair value closer to 400 to 450. That said, read my first sentence.
Could it fall and come back to reality? Sure it could. Anytime. You just cannot predict when that judgement day comes. Maybe one quarter where comps are
KORS is doing just fine. They could not grow same store sales at 40% forever. Today's comps are industry leading. No other retailer put up the comps that KORS did today. The stock is cheaper than ever.
The reason the stock goes down is that KORS keeps guiding under analysts. That could be two problems. Not enough analysts sandbagging so KORS can guide above them or just KORS lowballing too much when they should be at least guiding to estimates. Needless to say this is now 5 for 5 quarters where they beat on top and bottom line
Strong buy still. 15 times earnings multiple but growing over 100% faster than that. The only thing being heavily discounted with KORS is their stock
Right now you get over 12 times more earnings with McDonald's than you do with Chipotle yet McDonalds market cap is less than 5x larger than Chipotle's (98B vs 22B). Looks like MCD is either underpriced, CMG is overpriced or both?
For CMG to hit MCD earnings they have to grow net income 1300% from here! However the market is pricing the CMG stock as if it is already almost halfway to that goal.
People bailing is a great sign of a bottom. Might see stock go positive by days end. Kors beat top and bottom line last 5 out of 5 quarters. It's outperforming top and bottom line for the entire sector it operates in. Just because the stock doesn't follow is a wall street mechanic thing. These things change rather quickly once the stock changes direction.
In the short term the market is only a voting machine. Long term it's a weighing machine
Good luck. Almost 800B market cap. They are going to have to sell a ton of iPhones every year for the next 7 years to justify this market cap. You better hope they don't have a single down quarter YOY. If iPhone falls so does the market cap. iPads already falling into oblivion as refresh cycles loom large and phablet replacing. It's all iphone. All the time.
They have to find a lot of new buyers and now that large screen demand is satisfied upgrade cycles will be slower.
Worse yet the telecoms are in a price war. As their margins get cut don't count on them subsidizing iPhone to fill apple's fat coffers while they all lose money. Things are changing in telecom and apple won't be immune to the massive competion now that Sprint is chopping bills in half and T-Mobile is going for broke too. It's a race to the bottom and only so many dollars to go around. What happens when everyone has to pay full price for smartphone? Upgrade cycles will go from 1 to 2 years to 3 to 5 years. Devastating for apple.
Excellent post and great points. Hopefully those who are both long and short read this to understand a little more about the real story. Most of the longs are using "hope" as their investing thesis. That rarely ends well.
I put Tesla in the too easy to short but too dangerous to short category. The markets can remain irrational longer than I could stay solvent. Whether judgement day comes down on Tesla in a week, month, year or longer I just don't know. I just know it will. If I could time it even just about right I could buy PUT options and walk away over 100M richer.
In the meantime Musk will continue to tweet his hyped messages that just don't seem to ever come true or hit the mark. Keep the Kool-Aid flowing for those who are willing to drink it.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Cramer means no harm. He just goes where the wind blows. Loves the market when its up. Gets depressed like the rest when its down and gets cautious often times right before a rally.
He'll be negative on SSYS now probably when in reality it is probably at or near its bottom.
At company forecast of around 2.25 for 2015 a 30 multiple gets you 67/share or over 10% up from here in 12 months. IF they beat that there is more upside. If they hit 3 billion in 2020 you will see market beating returns from here.
You have to decide on 3D Printing industry as a whole and whether it has merit. I know it does from the companies I follow and have been involved in. It will only get bigger, much bigger.
Lots of fear of what HP has up their sleeve but I wouldn't be too worried about their vaporware just yet. SSYS has lots of patents too so will be interesting if HP steps on some or many.
Do people know that McDonald's revenue is larger than Wendy's, BK, Taco Belle, Panera and Chipotle's combined? I laugh when media talks about how Mcdonalds is over and one foot in the grave. They simply dwarf all these other restaurants COMBINED!
Looks like KORS business is fundamentally on solid footing. More than the main stream media hype machine would have one believe. The death of KORS is highly exaggerated.
So I spent an hour listening and learned alot.
1) Earnings and revenues would have both been quite a bit higher had it not been for FX (foreign currency) headwinds. It took a toll on both so if you look at constant currency basis the growth rates and financials were all actually higher. Translation Business is growing nicely and better than even the positive press release reveals.
2) KORS is getting into wearables soon. No mention of this by any of the analysts or media hucksters
3) Forward guidance, which main stream media morons (MSMM's) poo-poo'd as being soft, was not actually as light as they reported. Why? Foreign currency. After taking into account the extra 5 to 7 cents if you account for FX on a constant currency basis which looks through exchange rates they actually are guiding OVER both revenue and earnings estimates for next quarter! Again no mention by the MSMM's or analysts who are all too lazy to slice out an hour and actually listen to the call.
4) We also learned that the stores this year were taking back returns from online sales at their stores this year. Last year Nordstrom was taking back returns. This year KORS was accepting returns. So this year those returns pull down same store sales whereas last year they didn't. Had this not been the case and you compared apples to apples last year and this year the same store sales would have been higher.
5) Online sales grew 73% making up 7% of KORS total revenue. It turns out many shoppers are turning to online (amazing right) to purchase merchandise. Wider selection and more sizes. Some of this will of course pull from brick and mortar stores and it did. Had they added this into same store sales those also would have been higher.
Listen to the conference call is my advice.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I think we will see a buyout price between 75 and 80 a share. it won't be as low as 71 if 3G is indeed in talks to purchase it. At that price KRFT would have shareholder lawsuit for selling too low.