wow! you are smart! how did you know to do this. that is a great trade. I wish I would have bought before the close. I could have made money too
Cook said in 2012 they would not split the stock because they don't support the stock and are meaningless. He just did a 180. I dont' trust him now. He could have done it 2 years ago and avoided many issues along the way. Now he does it too late.
Stock will gap down. Fair value is 25 times 2016 EPS of 16 which is 400/share. Another 80 on the downside just to get to fair value PEG 1.0 with no margin of safety if things get more dire on the EPS line from costs or resistance to higher prices
The fair value is 25 times 2016 EPS of 16 which is 400/share. Another 80 on the downside just to get to fair value PEG 1.0 with no margin of safety if things get more dire on the EPS line from costs or resistance to higher prices. We could see 325 to 425 very soon. It is a buy down there. I'll be buying from about 410 and anything under that. The long term story is intact the stock just WAY ahead of itself on valuation no matter how you look at it.
I got lucky and got filled at 234 to add to my position. I also wrote PUT contracts with 220 strike expiring in December. Both positions well in green. MIDD long term hold. Great brands. Big moat. Best CEO. I've held for long time and also add when market gets irrational.
Stock up during conf call. Not sure why yet but will read notes when transcripted
Wells said deal is 90% likely to happen. Einhorn must have called his buddy at Stifel to come out and say the deal won't happen at all in hopes to cover his PUTS at less of a loss. My money is on Wells Fargo and the 90%. Stock down premarket with sheep listening to Stifel? Nuts but an opportunity to buy more for a quick 20% gain
Love wall street. Same price today as a week ago before any buyout talks. PUshed right back down. Hedge funds called in media and analyst favors to panic people and push stock down so they can get out.
Stifel says deal won't happen
CNBC saying deal will take a long time and regulatory risk
On flip side Wells said deal is 90% plus probable.
So the price today reflects the traders thinking that there is 0% chance the deal will ever happen. They are giving zero pricing in the event it does. The stock was already at this price before any talk of acquisition was in the air. Nuts
Not really. A simple DCF calculation shows KORS Is actually cheap here. Even if growth gets cut in half the shares are in the bargain bin here.
KORS continues to crush it in the entire space they operate in bringing the pain to Coach and others.
This stock should double in the next 3 to 5 years
KORS is clearly dominating the entire space. Their team and designers have a firm pulse on the fashion industry and consistently bring it. The stock trades cheap based on their growth and even at 100 represents a bargain as the stock will double in the next 3 to 5 years. This will provide market crushing returns
This is very important as the only excuse pundits are giving is that margins are under pressure, which they in fact are not. A good time to add to KORS. Forward PE is now 19 and that is before the estimates are raised. The forward PE will come down further. Stock is cheap trading around 17 times forward but growing profits over 50% and same store sales like few have ever seen in retail.
I've done checks around NJ and Las Vegas. Coach stores empty and KORS hopping with brisk activity. Checked five stores and liked what I saw. My wife who is into fashion walked into and out of both Coach and Louis Vuitton. Walked into Kors and bought watches and a few other things. Been the same story with her for almost 2 years now. Same with her friends for the most part. Kors seems to be on the pulse of the consumer year after year.
The valuation is not justified. Fair value based on DCF is around 400/share right now but you could plus or minus 50 on that too. That said many stocks often trade at a large premium or discount to their actual fair value based on investor emotion/sentiment. These things ALWAYS correct themselves. Sometimes it takes months and sometimes years. CMG will likely have a bad quarter with low single digit comps in the next year or two. When it does the 2X PEG valuation won't be awarded and the stock should lose 1/3 to 1/2 its value.
Best way to play it is to write short puts in the mid to low 400's. Take the premium from writing them. Write them with a far out strike date. If the stock plummets you may get put the stock but it will be at levels that represent a fair value. If you don't get put the stock keep the premium for 100% profit.
LOL. 20 for a burrito. Not anytime in the next decade.
CMG PE is about 2X where it should be. One bad quarter of comps and the enthusiasm and sentiment will turn and the stock will see the high 300's to low 400's and then it will be at a typical fair PEG 1.0 type valuation based on DCF. In the end cash flow is what matters and CMG traders/investors buying today at these prices are paying about 100% more for shares than they are worth. It will get corrected in time.
Just random algo trading. Nothing more. Forward PE is now under 20. Amazing considering the revenue and earnings growth for KORS and how they are taking COH and everyone else out to the woodshed. KORS will be a $200 stock within 3 years even if growth slows considerably from here although that is not likely. KORS just raised numbers again