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Coach, Inc. Message Board

equityrich 61 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 23, 2015 3:48 PM Member since: Apr 16, 1998
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  • Reply to

    congratulations fellow longs. patience pays off

    by cccr2008 Feb 23, 2015 10:34 AM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 23, 2015 3:48 PM Flag

    Never congratulate a long who is holding any stock. Only congratulate them after they cash out. There are two parts of every trade. The buy and the sell. Most investors wait to sell once the stock has retreated or turns from a gain to a loss. No celebrations in order until profit if locked in with stock sold

  • Reply to

    Could be a first....

    by llpinter Feb 23, 2015 2:01 PM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 23, 2015 2:30 PM Flag

    Good luck. Almost 800B market cap. They are going to have to sell a ton of iPhones every year for the next 7 years to justify this market cap. You better hope they don't have a single down quarter YOY. If iPhone falls so does the market cap. iPads already falling into oblivion as refresh cycles loom large and phablet replacing. It's all iphone. All the time.

    They have to find a lot of new buyers and now that large screen demand is satisfied upgrade cycles will be slower.

    Worse yet the telecoms are in a price war. As their margins get cut don't count on them subsidizing iPhone to fill apple's fat coffers while they all lose money. Things are changing in telecom and apple won't be immune to the massive competion now that Sprint is chopping bills in half and T-Mobile is going for broke too. It's a race to the bottom and only so many dollars to go around. What happens when everyone has to pay full price for smartphone? Upgrade cycles will go from 1 to 2 years to 3 to 5 years. Devastating for apple.

  • equityrich equityrich Feb 23, 2015 2:26 PM Flag

    You are a stock market genius and destined to make millions from apple

  • the market is dramatically mispricing one or both of these. Kors is growing top line and same store sales at a very rapid pace with a bright outlook for 2015. Coach on the other hand continues to shrink revenues and same store sales are slumping and negative.

    One would think a much higher mulitple for the company growing would be afforded. Not the case. Coach is trading at a 30% higher multiple premium to the fast growing Kors versus Coach's self imploding business.

    It is sometimes funny to see just how irrational the market can be at times whether it be the momentum guys playing, the algo traders or technical guys watching charts.

    Either way Kors is now setup for a big upside run once the charts and all the other BS start to all of a sudden "work". Since going public one thing has always worked and that is Kors top and bottom line growth and same store sales growth. Phenomenal every quarter and beaten every quarter.

    I've seen this same thing play out before in many stocks that stay epoxied at low levels for months or years only to explode to the upside very quickly. Apple, Seagate, Adobe and tons of others. All stayed at depressed valuations while the businesses continued to prosper then all of a sudden the street one day decides to stop hating and ignoring the red headed stepchild.

    That day for Kors could be next week, next month or further out but if coach vs Kors valuations in contrast to each one of their businesses, balance sheet and fundamentals tells us something it is that this day will come.

  • If they learned anything from apple they are going to have to do one or all three soon. Stock is extremely important to retaining and attracting top talent. Google execs admitted this on the conf call. Now it is a matter of seeing if or when they act on it and which levers they pull.

    Another flatline or down year for google will make 2 in a row and the exodus will continue if they don't take some action to turn the stock around.

    My suggestion would be an authorization for 30B buyback. Start a dividend of $5/share which is about 1%. Split the stock 10 for 1.

    Even Tim Cook who is clueless realized he had to do all this and their stock has almost doubled since.

  • Reply to

    Bad news event coming

    by auagboy Feb 12, 2015 11:30 AM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 12, 2015 5:28 PM Flag

    It is a small part of their total revenues plus it remains to be seen if the biosimilar will get FDA approved and if patients will accept it.

    Remicade can have adverse infusion reactions among other complications. Patients and doctors are going to be very very nervous about taking long term patients off Remicade that has been working and risk a potentially fatal infusion reaction with some generic biosimilar.

    Biosimilar approvals are going to be a much bigger hurdle in the USA then generic approvals for non biologics.

    Also the patent was going to run out in 3 years (2018) anyway so even if the J&J appeal gets rejected they will still have traction up until the patent expires anyway. Also expiration has already been built into the numbers going out in 2018 by analysts and management.

    Today is typical trader type knee jerk read the headline and sell then move on stuff. Next....

  • Reply to

    Bad news event coming

    by auagboy Feb 12, 2015 11:30 AM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 12, 2015 2:46 PM Flag

    Nope. Nobody died:

    Just sector rotation as I said.

  • equityrich equityrich Feb 12, 2015 2:44 PM Flag

    If you are a long term investor of celgene looking forward to that 2020 $12.50 number and a 20 PE pushing this to 250/share by then you want the price to be low between now and then. The lower the better. Why? Celgene is buying back stock and has tons of cash. The lower it is the more your shares are worth and the better ROI over the long term for those purchases.

    Imagine you owned 50% of celgene and your partner (we'll call him MarketMan) offered you some of his shares each day to buy out his half. You both agreed over five years you will buy him out. Each day you can buy some of his shares at the price he offers to you. Some days MarketMan is feeling bold and strong and wants a lot so maybe you don't buy and wait for a better day. Some days he is in a panic or needs money for his new house or Porsche and he's willing to give you a huge discount. So you buy.

    The buyback is no difference. Pray for lower prices. If you are not a day trader and are in this for a few years it only benefits you. Bob Hugen, Celgene CEO, is smart when it comes to buying back stock at opportune times.

  • Reply to

    Bad news event coming

    by auagboy Feb 12, 2015 11:30 AM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 12, 2015 11:51 AM Flag

    naah...sector rotation. lots of big pharma and biotech falling today. the etf's are selling off in health/bio so they take jnj, celg, etc all along for the ride. funds rotating into apple right now cuz it's "working". when that stops working they come rotate right on back and make their rounds. not hard to see why they always underperform, is it

  • equityrich equityrich Feb 9, 2015 4:12 PM Flag

    Naaah...see my post in this forum. $20 in 2016 earnings. 25x multiple on 25% eps growth. $500 to $550 target. Comps will be much lower around mid single digits and store growth only 10%. With buyback they will hit 25% eps growth.

    The current multiple is way too high and only there due to technical and momentum traders. Investors could use it and could have to get out near a short term top. Stock got ahead of itself a few years.

    I'd be a strong buyer and add to my core position once we start coming under $550 and I'd buy all the way down. If the market goes negative people might put a 20 multiple on it and you get $400 to $450 worse case but that is a longshot.

    I see 10% chance of

  • Looks like KORS business is fundamentally on solid footing. More than the main stream media hype machine would have one believe. The death of KORS is highly exaggerated.

    So I spent an hour listening and learned alot.

    1) Earnings and revenues would have both been quite a bit higher had it not been for FX (foreign currency) headwinds. It took a toll on both so if you look at constant currency basis the growth rates and financials were all actually higher. Translation Business is growing nicely and better than even the positive press release reveals.

    2) KORS is getting into wearables soon. No mention of this by any of the analysts or media hucksters

    3) Forward guidance, which main stream media morons (MSMM's) poo-poo'd as being soft, was not actually as light as they reported. Why? Foreign currency. After taking into account the extra 5 to 7 cents if you account for FX on a constant currency basis which looks through exchange rates they actually are guiding OVER both revenue and earnings estimates for next quarter! Again no mention by the MSMM's or analysts who are all too lazy to slice out an hour and actually listen to the call.

    4) We also learned that the stores this year were taking back returns from online sales at their stores this year. Last year Nordstrom was taking back returns. This year KORS was accepting returns. So this year those returns pull down same store sales whereas last year they didn't. Had this not been the case and you compared apples to apples last year and this year the same store sales would have been higher.

    5) Online sales grew 73% making up 7% of KORS total revenue. It turns out many shoppers are turning to online (amazing right) to purchase merchandise. Wider selection and more sizes. Some of this will of course pull from brick and mortar stores and it did. Had they added this into same store sales those also would have been higher.

    Listen to the conference call is my advice.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • equityrich equityrich Feb 6, 2015 10:52 AM Flag

    If you are short you might want to listen to the conference call. Quite a bit was not said in the press release or main stream media coverage who wanted to stick to the narrative that KORS is over.

    Far from it. Turns out that their guidance was actually above analysts, not below it. What they didn't mention on the release but discussed on the call was that FX was in that guidance and accounts for 5 to 7 cents. Taking that into account (which they didn't on their release) on a constant currency basis their comps, earnings, revenues and guidance were ALL up higher then reported and forecast.

    Some things you gotta do the homework on. Sure it sucks listening to a one hour phone call but if your money is at stake why not. It's really hard work. Who wants to do that. Maybe only those who wish to get rewarded.

    KORS is the leading brand in its sector with a clear roadmap for continued double digit growth and the fashion icons to execute it.

    Also they are getting into wearables. Didn't hear that on the media anywhere. Hmmmm

  • Reply to

    Another analyst downgrades NOV

    by jpraschnik Feb 6, 2015 10:22 AM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 6, 2015 10:37 AM Flag

    It's a good opportunity. thank the analyst. It's allowing me to add aggressively to my position now. Apparently the analyst didn't listen to the conference call closely. Sure we will have a down cycle. We always do. But within a year or two max we will be out of it and NOV will lead the charge

  • Reply to

    Time to Admit a Mistake and Move On

    by alpha2735 Feb 5, 2015 8:00 AM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 5, 2015 10:01 AM Flag

    People bailing is a great sign of a bottom. Might see stock go positive by days end. Kors beat top and bottom line last 5 out of 5 quarters. It's outperforming top and bottom line for the entire sector it operates in. Just because the stock doesn't follow is a wall street mechanic thing. These things change rather quickly once the stock changes direction.

    In the short term the market is only a voting machine. Long term it's a weighing machine

  • equityrich equityrich Feb 5, 2015 9:55 AM Flag

    KORS is doing just fine. They could not grow same store sales at 40% forever. Today's comps are industry leading. No other retailer put up the comps that KORS did today. The stock is cheaper than ever.

    The reason the stock goes down is that KORS keeps guiding under analysts. That could be two problems. Not enough analysts sandbagging so KORS can guide above them or just KORS lowballing too much when they should be at least guiding to estimates. Needless to say this is now 5 for 5 quarters where they beat on top and bottom line

    Strong buy still. 15 times earnings multiple but growing over 100% faster than that. The only thing being heavily discounted with KORS is their stock

  • equityrich equityrich Feb 5, 2015 9:52 AM Flag

    Affordable luxury sells because women like the fashion. It isn't about "exclusivity" when she makes her purchases. KORS consistently has their finger on the fashion pulse.

    Same stores sales are slowing because 40% same store sales is not sustainable in any business.

    Please show me one retailer with comps higher than what KORS put up today?

  • Reply to

    KORS killing it - As I expected!

    by big_stock_pimp Jan 29, 2015 9:47 PM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 5, 2015 9:50 AM Flag

    Bad stock management. they always beat top and bottom. last 5 quarters all beats.

    stock went from 100 to 60. why? they can't keep guiding under estimates and then beating them. They need to at least guide in-line if they want to hold stock price. Now they are just going to have to get so cheap that value investors come in and start supporting the stock.

    They should be buying back stock at these prices hand over fist. Stock trades at 15 times current year earnings ex-cash and is growing well over 2x that rate. I know they are buying back but they should go all in here and borrow to pull in at least 15% of the float

  • Reply to

    How many of you have owned CMG since 2006...

    by cjdbs Feb 3, 2015 4:31 PM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 4, 2015 11:22 AM Flag

    How's that working out for you today

  • Reply to

    How many of you have owned CMG since 2006...

    by cjdbs Feb 3, 2015 4:31 PM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 3, 2015 5:00 PM Flag

    I would not short a momentum stock. It can go up to absurd levels like it has but the day the momentum traders leave it can drop 50% overnight.

  • Reply to

    How many of you have owned CMG since 2006...

    by cjdbs Feb 3, 2015 4:31 PM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 3, 2015 4:39 PM Flag

    You are only wrong for now. If they get in line with their growth rate vs earnings the stock could see 400 in a hurry. then you will be more right than you knew. Just a timing issue. You can't account for how long the market was going to irrationally price CMG too high at that massive premium to earnings. over 4x the market multiple for only 2x over market growth. It always corrects. Now with low single digit comps in 2015 lower share prices ahead

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