Looks like chipotle will hit $1000 pretty soon and then 10 for 1 split at least. Maybe 20 for 1. Then back to 100. No stopping this burrito. It is the best company in the world. They have limitless growth potential. 2 more restaurant concepts up and coming with another 10,000 store potential. Chipotle will be bigger than Mcdonald's, Panera, Burger King and Wendy's combined.
Growth rate is half of the forward PE. STock is overvalued by 100% today. Stock will get cut in half sometime when the music stops. Right now its riding on analyst estimates beat. This is a game where if you beat estimates your stock can go up even if the discounted cash flow makes zero sense. You could have zero growth and go up for years simply if analysts keep estimating under what you report at. Again at some point this game ends.
Adobe is a company that trades on technicals and analysts beat and lower game. Time to take profits and look elsewhere
Just random algo trading. Nothing more. Forward PE is now under 20. Amazing considering the revenue and earnings growth for KORS and how they are taking COH and everyone else out to the woodshed. KORS will be a $200 stock within 3 years even if growth slows considerably from here although that is not likely. KORS just raised numbers again
LOL. 20 for a burrito. Not anytime in the next decade.
CMG PE is about 2X where it should be. One bad quarter of comps and the enthusiasm and sentiment will turn and the stock will see the high 300's to low 400's and then it will be at a typical fair PEG 1.0 type valuation based on DCF. In the end cash flow is what matters and CMG traders/investors buying today at these prices are paying about 100% more for shares than they are worth. It will get corrected in time.
The valuation is not justified. Fair value based on DCF is around 400/share right now but you could plus or minus 50 on that too. That said many stocks often trade at a large premium or discount to their actual fair value based on investor emotion/sentiment. These things ALWAYS correct themselves. Sometimes it takes months and sometimes years. CMG will likely have a bad quarter with low single digit comps in the next year or two. When it does the 2X PEG valuation won't be awarded and the stock should lose 1/3 to 1/2 its value.
Best way to play it is to write short puts in the mid to low 400's. Take the premium from writing them. Write them with a far out strike date. If the stock plummets you may get put the stock but it will be at levels that represent a fair value. If you don't get put the stock keep the premium for 100% profit.
This is very important as the only excuse pundits are giving is that margins are under pressure, which they in fact are not. A good time to add to KORS. Forward PE is now 19 and that is before the estimates are raised. The forward PE will come down further. Stock is cheap trading around 17 times forward but growing profits over 50% and same store sales like few have ever seen in retail.
I've done checks around NJ and Las Vegas. Coach stores empty and KORS hopping with brisk activity. Checked five stores and liked what I saw. My wife who is into fashion walked into and out of both Coach and Louis Vuitton. Walked into Kors and bought watches and a few other things. Been the same story with her for almost 2 years now. Same with her friends for the most part. Kors seems to be on the pulse of the consumer year after year.
KORS is clearly dominating the entire space. Their team and designers have a firm pulse on the fashion industry and consistently bring it. The stock trades cheap based on their growth and even at 100 represents a bargain as the stock will double in the next 3 to 5 years. This will provide market crushing returns
Not really. A simple DCF calculation shows KORS Is actually cheap here. Even if growth gets cut in half the shares are in the bargain bin here.
KORS continues to crush it in the entire space they operate in bringing the pain to Coach and others.
This stock should double in the next 3 to 5 years
Love wall street. Same price today as a week ago before any buyout talks. PUshed right back down. Hedge funds called in media and analyst favors to panic people and push stock down so they can get out.
Stifel says deal won't happen
CNBC saying deal will take a long time and regulatory risk
On flip side Wells said deal is 90% plus probable.
So the price today reflects the traders thinking that there is 0% chance the deal will ever happen. They are giving zero pricing in the event it does. The stock was already at this price before any talk of acquisition was in the air. Nuts
Wells said deal is 90% likely to happen. Einhorn must have called his buddy at Stifel to come out and say the deal won't happen at all in hopes to cover his PUTS at less of a loss. My money is on Wells Fargo and the 90%. Stock down premarket with sheep listening to Stifel? Nuts but an opportunity to buy more for a quick 20% gain
I got lucky and got filled at 234 to add to my position. I also wrote PUT contracts with 220 strike expiring in December. Both positions well in green. MIDD long term hold. Great brands. Big moat. Best CEO. I've held for long time and also add when market gets irrational.
Stock up during conf call. Not sure why yet but will read notes when transcripted
The fair value is 25 times 2016 EPS of 16 which is 400/share. Another 80 on the downside just to get to fair value PEG 1.0 with no margin of safety if things get more dire on the EPS line from costs or resistance to higher prices. We could see 325 to 425 very soon. It is a buy down there. I'll be buying from about 410 and anything under that. The long term story is intact the stock just WAY ahead of itself on valuation no matter how you look at it.
Stock will gap down. Fair value is 25 times 2016 EPS of 16 which is 400/share. Another 80 on the downside just to get to fair value PEG 1.0 with no margin of safety if things get more dire on the EPS line from costs or resistance to higher prices