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Michael Kors Holdings Limited Message Board

equityrich 41 posts  |  Last Activity: 15 hours ago Member since: Apr 16, 1998
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  • Looks like revenue growth falling off a cliff! Bad trend here

    FY10: 39.56%
    FY11: 40.56%
    FY13: 21.87%
    FY14: 15%

  • It seems just about everyone is long apple now. Price pop appears to be short covering. Now with everyone long the stock who is left to buy? Are you long? Will you be buying more here at 120? Do you have any more cash to add to the position at all time highs?

    Will apple finish up in the green today after the short covering is over?

  • equityrich equityrich Jan 27, 2015 6:43 PM Flag

    At some point the law hits. It's just reality. Only so many dollars out there and people capable of spending those types of dollars at X intervals.

    I think the large screen is a one time anomoly. I know people who had iphone 3G's and 4's that finally bit the bullet and upgraded. I couldn't believe they didn't upgrade before to the 5 or 5S at least. Anyway alot of these long cycle upgraders won't be back to the well for a long time and there will be more like them unless apple finds a must have catalyst for a new phone.

    What would get you to buy another iphone now after the 6 or 6 plus? It won't be a larger screen which is what people have been wanting for years now. I think Apple milked the cow as much as they could in terms of screen size. Think about "why" the 6 is selling so well now. Why are people buying it? Large screen is the answer. Ask yourself what's next.

  • Reply to

    Silly shorts keep forgetting

    by fishart4 Jan 27, 2015 6:37 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jan 27, 2015 6:39 PM Flag

    Yes, the same moat microsoft, intel and blackberryhad.

  • Reply to

    aapl WILL BE $75 ONE YEAR FROM TODAY

    by g0ldman2001 Jan 27, 2015 4:58 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jan 27, 2015 5:00 PM Flag

    You are wrong. It won't be that high

  • Uh oh! this isn't good. iPad down 22% YOY. over 1/5th of the ipad business is now GONE. This makes apple more and more a one trick one product pony. Scary

  • Reply to

    2015 EPS Goes to $12.50 vs. $7.72 Estimate

    by balooga2_2000 Jan 27, 2015 4:40 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jan 27, 2015 4:57 PM Flag

    Howling! Good luck with that. You just called the top

  • equityrich equityrich Jan 27, 2015 4:55 PM Flag

    Well now we know 120 will never happen, ever

  • Reply to

    178B in cash but 40B in debt now

    by equityrich Jan 27, 2015 4:47 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jan 27, 2015 4:54 PM Flag

    And someday Apple because of

  • Reply to

    178B in cash but 40B in debt now

    by equityrich Jan 27, 2015 4:47 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jan 27, 2015 4:54 PM Flag

    Not really. the debt is only being used for buybacks and dividends. that is not much leverage unless the stock keeps going up. dividends paid out are zero leverage. You get an F for your economics class

  • Reply to

    178B in cash but 40B in debt now

    by equityrich Jan 27, 2015 4:47 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jan 27, 2015 4:53 PM Flag

    DOne! 10k shares shorted!

  • Will financial media mention NET cash or just total cash! LOL. Apple has 40B in debt. Net cash is 135B now. Plus they are servicing all that debt. Higher china taxes. falling ipad sales. Watch failure. They are now one trick pony. live and die by iphone.

    Gateway, Dell, Samsung, Nokia, Blackberry...all consumer hardware companies never quite panned out

  • equityrich by equityrich Jan 26, 2015 4:10 PM Flag

    Do people know that McDonald's revenue is larger than Wendy's, BK, Taco Belle, Panera and Chipotle's combined? I laugh when media talks about how Mcdonalds is over and one foot in the grave. They simply dwarf all these other restaurants COMBINED!

  • Right now you get over 12 times more earnings with McDonald's than you do with Chipotle yet McDonalds market cap is less than 5x larger than Chipotle's (98B vs 22B). Looks like MCD is either underpriced, CMG is overpriced or both?

    For CMG to hit MCD earnings they have to grow net income 1300% from here! However the market is pricing the CMG stock as if it is already almost halfway to that goal.

  • equityrich equityrich Jan 19, 2015 6:33 PM Flag

    Excellent post and great points. Hopefully those who are both long and short read this to understand a little more about the real story. Most of the longs are using "hope" as their investing thesis. That rarely ends well.

    I put Tesla in the too easy to short but too dangerous to short category. The markets can remain irrational longer than I could stay solvent. Whether judgement day comes down on Tesla in a week, month, year or longer I just don't know. I just know it will. If I could time it even just about right I could buy PUT options and walk away over 100M richer.

    In the meantime Musk will continue to tweet his hyped messages that just don't seem to ever come true or hit the mark. Keep the Kool-Aid flowing for those who are willing to drink it.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • A must read for longs or shorts

    http://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/2015/01/19/teslas-elon-musk-master-hyperbole/

  • equityrich by equityrich Jan 16, 2015 3:54 PM Flag

    I got my proxy vote. Catch this:

    "APPROVAL OF AMENDMENTS TO THE FIFTH AMENDED AND RESTATED CERTIFICATE OF INCORPORATION TO FACILITATE STOCK SPLITS."

    The vote closes 1/27/15 so it would have to be after that where something could be announced.

    Question is do they do 2 for 1? 3 for 1? 5 for 1? 10 for 1?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    bear thesis

    by retailbaloon Jan 4, 2015 3:44 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jan 16, 2015 2:53 PM Flag

    Big difference having a bear thesis on a 700B company vs a 20B company. At 700B apple needs another iphone hit to keep growing. Watch will be at best Apple TV success...a hobby. ipads sinking and getting worse as phablets replace many of them. iPhone is at peak.

    To see where apple is headed look at Samsung. Samsung is down in sales not because apple is taking share away as much as all their customers already got large screen phones over the last 3 years. Now that they have them the reason to upgrade is non-existent. Apple will follow this same exact path over the next 2 to 3 years as all contracts come due and everyone left with smaller screen phones upgrades. After that the upgrade cycles will move from 1-2 years to 3 to 4 years or more.

    Remember I called it.

  • Reply to

    bear thesis

    by retailbaloon Jan 4, 2015 3:44 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jan 16, 2015 2:53 PM Flag

    Big difference having a bear thesis on a 700B company vs a 20B company. At 700B apple needs another iphone hit to keep growing. Watch will be at best Apple TV success...a hobby. ipads sinking and getting worse as phablets replace many of them. iPhone is at peak.

    To see where apple is headed look at Samsung. Samsung is down in sales not because apple is taking share away as much as all their customers already got large screen phones over the last 3 years. Now that they have them the reason to upgrade is non-existent. Apple will follow this same exact path over the next 2 to 3 years as all contracts come due and everyone left with smaller screen phones upgrades. After that the upgrade cycles will move from 1-2 years to 3 to 4 years or more.

    Remember I called it.

  • Reply to

    Huge December sales

    by signnation Jan 8, 2015 9:44 AM
    equityrich equityrich Jan 16, 2015 1:57 PM Flag

    I closed out my PUTS (short ones). I fear Ruger is still losing share as their competitors have been aggresively promoting while Ruger share plummets as they refuse to. I think they are getting inventory builds and will be forced to discount heavily at some point to clear the channel.

    With Obama on the way out it seems like all the fears that caused the gun superspike have played out and there is still some air to be let out of that bubble. I was in at 50 and missed the top at 80. held down to 38 for small loss on few hundred shares. Instead of buying more than that I wrote PUTS so that softened the downside. Those PUTS expire today but I closed them out because I do not want to own the stock.

    I think the gun stocks are just too toxic with much lower unit sales ahead as things "normalize" to non panic buying levels. Also RGR put on much new capacity that now has no use so their overhead is significant as these facilities have to stay idle.

    Easier ways to make money in the market and I just admit I missed the trading peak on this one. Should have peeled half the position off when I was up 60% rather than watch this risky one turn into losses. The shorts got this one very right in the end.

KORS
72.53-1.03(-1.42%)Jan 29 4:02 PMEST

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