I forgot that the markets are closed on friday, so good luck tomorrow!
Good luck to you! remember, it ain't over till the fat lady sings. There are 2 more trading days and news could come any time. It looks like the open interest for calls and puts - the $5 strike- are not too far apart, so there probably will not be too much price manipulation due to the expiration. Here's hoping for good news!!
Seems to be that at these levels, GSK might make an opportunistic bid for Theravance. I recall that when HGSI corrected all the way to $7, GSK made a bid for $13 and settled for $14.
The company's silence speaks volumes! Remember, Wedbush believes the lack of conference calls suggests the company is considering strategic alternatives for either a commercial partner or acquisition
CHTP's remains a compelling investment opportunity, notwithstanding the recent bloodbath in the biotech sector. The stock's market cap is less than $400 million, it has an FDA approved orphan drug with a conservative estimate of $430 million in worldwide peak sales. Whether they launch Northera on their own or get acquired, the fact remains that the stock is grossly undervalued.
As of March 31st, CHTP's short interest totalled 8,187,623 shares, an increase of 26.1% from the March 14th total of 6,491,725 shares,approximately 11.1% of the company’s stock is sold short. This could prove to be rocket fuel, it's just a matter of time.
ML notes from about an hour ago:
In its fifth full month on the market, Breo recorded 7,579 scripts vs. 5,507 in February. We note that the early launch has been slow due to reimbursement negotiations, heavy sampling and prolonged physician education (Chart 1). Partner GSK has recently initiated its DTC TV advertising campaign, which we expect to
start to drive penetration along with reimbursement improvements.
Last week,THRX noted Medicare coverage has increased to ~50% from 25% in early February. We look for an update on GSK’s 1Q earnings call on 4/30.
Analyst Actions: Lpath Initiated at Buy, $17 Target by Canaccord Genuity
MIDNIGHT TRADER 8:33 AM ET 4/16/2014
08:33 AM EDT, 04/16/2014 (MT Newswires) -- Lpath(LPTN) received a buy investment rating from Canaccord Genuity, which initiated coverage of the biotechnology company with a $17 price target, saying its iSONEP may be a "dark horse" in treating wet age-related macular degeneration.
LPTN was inactive in recent pre-market trading after closing Tuesday at $4.25, in a 52-week range of $3.87 to $6.70.
Hi ricemba, I have been away from the message board for a while, there has been NO news! But the news about the study (a little ahead of schedule) has woken me up and hopefully the stock price!
This from AF's twitter feed: Adam Feuerstein @adamfeuerstein 4h
. @lomu_j Worth noting, $SHPG may not disclose midodrine results publicly, under no obligation to do so given no marketing. $CHTP
Thanks for posting this important update. It seems like we may have news about the trial a little sooner than expected. http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01515865
He exercised options to BUY THRX at $9.6875, but did not sell them. Here's an excerpt from a seeking alpha story that was published 2 days ago on similar purchases by other directors:
In March 2014, four insiders Aronld Levine (director), Mathai Mammen (officer), George Whitesides (director) and Bradford Shafer (officer) exercised options to purchase a total of 190,538 shares. While these were not open market purchases, only Bradford Shafer sold some shares (65,806), which is a bullish indication from the insiders. These insiders would have sold all the exercised shares in the mid-to-high $30's if they believed that the stock was worth just $40.4.
The 16% collapse in the biotech index (IBB) since February 25th has triggered a 25% collapse in the shares of Theravance. This is akin to throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Theravance has a blue chip investor base (GSK: 27% and Baupost 18%) which has recently bought more Theravance shares at prices approximately 20-25% higher than where it is trading currently.
William Waltrip bought 25, 806 shares- a bullish development!
Credit Suisse sees a 60% probability of a settlement and mid-2019 launch.
Assuming one year pull forward in generic Angiomax
Following MDCO’s announcement that the judge presiding over its Angiomax patent
infringement suit against Hospira issued his opinion that Hospira neither infringed
nor invalidated two key patents, we have pulled forward our expectation of generic Angiomax entering the market(by one year) to mid-2018. As a reminder, we had modeled a mid-2019 entrance based on MDCO’s settlements with both TEVA and APP. We now model 2018 US Angiomax sales of $460mn ($820mn prev) and 2019 US sales of~$45 ($490mn previously). These changes resulted in a $4/share impact to our DCF. Our new PO for MDCO shares is $35. We are maintaining our Buy rating as we still see long-term growth prospects from contributions from several products to MDCO’s established hospital-based business model.
Next steps likely involve both sides appealing
The court has not yet entered a final judgmenton this case. We expect MDCO to appeal the decision on non
-infringement and expect Hospira to appeal the decison not invalidating MDCO’s patents. We believe this process could take ~1-2 years to settle.
There are several upcoming pipeline catalysts for MDCO. Cangrelor (IV antiplatelet agent) has an
April 30th PDUFA. We removed our estimates for this drug following a strongly negative panel vote in Ma
rch. An approval or request for a relatively short study would provide upside to our estimates. In addition, a settlement with Hospira that would result in a launch closer to the other settlements in 2019 would also
provide upside. The upcoming PDUFA for oritavancin in skin infections (August 6th), NDAs for both Ionsys and Fibrocaps in coming months,and Carbavance entering phase 3 for gram negative infections are additional catalysts.
Adam Feuerstein @adamfeuerstein 38m
Congrats $MNKD and supporters. You guys were right about Afrezza approval. Me? I was wrong! I’m a looser!
I am optimistic. The NBI (nasdaq biotech index) was up 3% and HELD its gains. As today's Seeking Alpha says, THRX is a blazing bargain at these levels!!!
if you do a google search on afrezza, you'll find the SA story (under biotech investor dot com)
Even mega-bear AF had this grudging semi-positive comment:
Adam Feuerstein @adamfeuerstein 2
$MNKD - My quick scan of FDA’s review of Afrezza: No knockout punch but lots concerns/issues and questions. Great panel fodder for next wk.
Mannkind Receives Positive Briefing Documents - Positive Adcom Vote Likely 1 comment
Mar 28, 2014 9:03 AM | about stocks: MNKD
Mannkind MNKD received positive briefing notes from the FDA this morning so expect the stock to jump on the news. Here's the overall conclusion below. An ADCOM will vote on Monday and I expect a positive outcome based on the briefing documents.
Afrezza provides a new therapeutic option in the management of both T1DM and T2DM
. Clinical trials have shown Afrezza to be safe and well-tolerated with a safety profile
consistent with its novel
insulin delivery. Afrezza
glycemic control with
the added benefit of weight neutrality and reduced hypoglycemia risk compa
red with other
Because of its unique PK/PD characteristics, glycemic efficacy, clinically-meaningful
hypoglycemia and weight advantages, and its delivery of insulin in an alternative,
noninvasive route of administration that provides c
onvenience and ease of use
represents a useful addition to the therapeutic options available to patients and HCPs
management of diabetes.
Its safety profile is not associated with any clear safety signals, and
potential risks will be better understood based on a comprehensive postm
th appropriate l
abeling of the product and the Sponsor's
commitment to identifying and implementing a broad risk management strategy, meaningful
s can be provided to
patients. The favorable benefit/risk profile of TI justifies
its use as a novel
insulin in diabetes management