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erbium_doper 24 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 11, 2014 10:49 AM Member since: Jul 7, 2000
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  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Apr 11, 2014 10:49 AM Flag

    longs are swimming directly into a rip tide. The tsunami of margin calls will eventually drown them. Just sit back wait and watch. Too many bought this stock on momentum. Nearly 500 billion in margin dollars in the market. Far higher than y2000 which was half this level.

  • Reply to

    Dumbo tamaracktpg/signal_attenuation:

    by smilin_clyde Apr 7, 2014 9:01 AM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Apr 7, 2014 10:41 AM Flag

    how cheap do they get before ericsson buys them with their coffee money.

    Not gonna see 20 unless the market tanks. It can't get much cheaper. Couldn't resist. Picked up some 2015 calls.

  • Reply to

    Classic Shakeout

    by blubby2000 Apr 4, 2014 12:02 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Apr 7, 2014 10:16 AM Flag

    Air bnb has a 10 billion market cap and you get to sleep on somebodys apartment floor....

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Mar 29, 2014 9:55 AM Flag

    they raised cash now to fund operations/acquisitions but will tend to dilute the stock later on if the price of the stock rises.

    the bottom line is that they need to make good use of the money [ROI] to offset dilution down the road. So it all boils down to making good investment decisions with the cash they raised. All businesses face this issue....making good Return on Investments.Nothing really new under the sun. A very wealthy friend of mine told me that we don't invest in companies so much as we invest in management of those companies. So we need to trust that they do the right thing with the capital they raised.

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Mar 21, 2014 2:23 PM Flag

    Ok that would be $8 from the post earnings top. Thats about a standard 20% correction.

    hopefully the expedia announcement will come soon, we need something to pull us out of this funk.

    the airbnb release should be welcome news...the 10 BIllion market cap should be appealing for away with a much smaller market cap.

  • Reply to

    Buffet Favors XL Approval!

    by bradshaw22000 Mar 3, 2014 2:52 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Mar 16, 2014 10:11 AM Flag

    Totally agree with your premise.

    Additionally, the weekend news blitz is on. The moderate Americans are calling for energy independence to offset the national security threat from the Russians invading the Ukraine.

    its game on for the Keystone XL. With the midterms coming up the two issues that will gain them the house are Keystone XL/ energy security and Obamacare. The American people are overwhelmingly in favor of Keystone and this number will increase as the national security issues become obvious.

    Obama will be forced to move to the center and say yes to Keystone. He'll leave Hillary out of the decision so she can retain the base during the next presidential election. The eco extremists are gonna take one for the team.

    Its as obvious as dog your bets accordingly I'm betting on TRP.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Gotta admit...

    by historyrepeats45 Mar 13, 2014 10:25 AM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Mar 14, 2014 9:32 AM Flag

    good the stock long term but 80% of the market is macro issues. With the big market rally the stock didn't move up. Now with a correction, the stock is moving down. Probably a good time to exit and try to re-enter later.

    probably time to bail and re-enter in the 14s with a reasonable stop loss in case it breaks that range as well. Not a big believer in technical but because everyone else believes, its real. Stocks trade in quantum levels like an electron they don't remain but pass thru intermediate levels. Given the break below 15.6 if I were to guess its probably going lower.

  • Reply to

    Indicator for day traders of BTU?

    by historyrepeats45 Mar 12, 2014 10:36 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Mar 13, 2014 9:50 AM Flag

    China has a middle class of 300 million expected to grow to 700 million. Windmills cant provide the base load, that leaves nuke or nat gas or coal. With nat gas going to 5 in the US its much more in asia. Coal will increase.

    so natural resources are the inevitable benefactor. After the beating down to this support level we are seeing capitulation. Just keep that in mind. Its time to be patient, it will break north. This will be a great 5 year play especially when the republicans win the senate back during the midterms. The EPA is gonna get streamlined.

  • Reply to

    Asian news driving action

    by dark_glimmer Mar 10, 2014 10:43 AM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Mar 11, 2014 7:58 PM Flag

    you gotta be on meds to handle the news flow on the china economy...

    its good, its bad, its good, its bad, its good its bad.

    last few days it was bad, I give it 5 days and it will be good again.

    The politicos are going to use energy as a weapon against the Russians, some morning we'll wake up and I'll be investing with other peoples money. Aint gonna be long either, I expect it any day now. American energy has always been our trump card weapon, we pull it out as necessary. It will be pulled out again to kick putin in the nuts..Then we will be on the trajectory back to 20.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    52 Week Low was $14.34 on July 5, 2013

    by joeschmo_4 Mar 10, 2014 10:39 AM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Mar 11, 2014 2:50 PM Flag

    its very irrational.

    I think we get a groundswell of support for the need to export nat gas so the Eutopeans don't get shocked by the Russian issue. Eventually the cause and effect of thermal coal vs nat gas inventories and prices will come home to roost.

    I've been out for several months, but now back to buy at yard sale prices.

    midterms coming up a lot of democratic senators will be getting nervous and will move to the middle to cover their butts.....I.remember barry loved coal right before the elections.

  • Reply to

    Riding Trend toward Optical

    by telecom_buildout Mar 6, 2014 1:46 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Mar 7, 2014 7:31 AM Flag

    Some people haven't connected the dots. Ciena currently isn't in china. China mobile selected Ericsson for their 4G LTE rollout. A partnership with ericsson now gives Ciena a major customer in the most populated country in the world. I'm still amazed that they didn't just buy Ciena outright. But who knows maybe they wanted to work with them awhile before they made their buyout offer. That way they get more information and data by which to make an offer.

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Mar 3, 2014 8:07 PM Flag

    exactly only fools think of Comcast as cable tv.

    ....lvtl, win, xo, etc will fail in that they lack the attachment rights on the last mile. Much of the fiber is old, IRUd and limited in use. Unlike Comcast wich owns the strand [600,000 miles] and can simply upgrade their fiber for reasonable cost if fiber is limited. Also CLECs have invested heaviliy in expensive tdm technology that is functionally obsolete. Comcast can buy very reasonably priced Carrier Ethernet gear [like ciena] that's prepackaged to be placed on the wall for minimal installation costs. This stuff is 1/20 the price of the Futitsu and other legacy TDM equipment. . Its autoloads a configuration from a server and is functional in minutes with minimal tech time.

    they are going to mop the floor with these incumbent CLECs in the lucrative biz space. The incumbent CLECs days are numbered. Comcast makes higher margins at a fraction of the price of their competitors.

    the perfect play....go long Comcast, long ciena, hedge the broader market by going short LVLT, TWTC, XO, WIn.

    also short T as its cellular biz is in a price war and Comcast will eat their lunch on business services. Comcast has a non union duopoly in the local market. Its the best cash generating machine in the space.

  • so much for all the cdn networks like amazon, akami, level3 etc

    the Netflix deal proves that Comcast can build their own cdn network and cut out the middlemen....

    Comcast has 600,000 route miles, they can just do optical add/drop and pick up all the players around their network. Cut out the middlemen. They are the internet.

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Feb 27, 2014 11:03 AM Flag

    you got it.

    they will roll out direct gige fiber feeders to business for a fraction of the price that a RBOC, LVLT, TWTC or other cap access provider is doing it for. There is carrier ethernet equipment that goes back to the headend that can drop a gige for a couple of grand per business. This service is mucho expensive and these guys will do it for pennies on the dollar as compared to the SDN infrastructure that currently exists. They have ciena 6500 OTN on the backbone so they can turn up 100g waves.

    I don't see the reason for MPLS when you have Q in Q

    they won't need to buy Lvlt as a lot of their wave equipment is obsolete. Those guys will just die on the vine.

    any word on the status of a CRAN upgrade?

    disclosure long cmcsa, short LVLT

  • Reply to

    what the heck is wrong?

    by raman_ds Feb 21, 2014 4:09 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Feb 24, 2014 4:37 PM Flag

    Comcast has 145,000 route miles of fiber. To replicate this network its gonna cost GOOGle $30k per mile to get attachment rights and build the plant. Then its gonna take years to do it. The cost of plant will be 138x the cost of what Comcast has their assets listed on their PPE.

    Add time warner into the mix and you grow cash like sprinking water on a chia pet. These guys are untouchable .

  • Reply to

    geez in the past a 150 up day

    by barc37000 Feb 24, 2014 10:58 AM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Feb 24, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    bigger players shaking out the weak hand momo buyers....

    send the price down a couple of points pre market..#$%$ out the weak longs and then run it back up.


  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Feb 20, 2014 4:50 PM Flag

    nice move....

    I'm guessing those treated you well.

    well that a 5 for 5 event.

    expedia, trip advisor, orbitz, homeaway and priceline after hours.

    I'm guessing home away will be up again tomorrow after the priceline beat.

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Feb 18, 2014 6:49 AM Flag

    internet travel:

    expe, trip and oww all beat estimates and are all up big

    away and pcln are on deck

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Feb 13, 2014 8:24 AM Flag

    Comcast buyout of Time Warner is very good for Ciena. Comcast uses 6500 OTN. Expect that the time warner properties will have 6500 OTN as well. The first technical challenge would be expanding the CRAN network to include the Time Warner headends......that's a lot of headends folks.

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Feb 12, 2014 7:38 AM Flag

    whatever happens hold your stock.

    I think you could see trip going after away. During the end of the Trip CEO call he stated that they would be going after acquistions that make long term sense for the company. They have flipkey and can see the value in AWAY that priceline and expedia may not see as they don't do vacation rentals . Sounded very aggressive.

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