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HomeAway, Inc. (AWAY) Message Board

erbium_doper 20 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 23, 2014 8:03 PM Member since: Jul 7, 2000
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  • Reply to

    I expected them to beat

    by albertdrone Jul 23, 2014 4:29 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Jul 23, 2014 8:03 PM Flag

    it reminds me of the miracle of the medowlands when Joe Piscarcik pooched the handoff to lose the game....

    #$%$ they burned 75 million marketing dollars [in bogus TV ads????] to increase marketing and missed their earnings numbers and tanked the stock. Put down the bong......What idiot authorized these spends? These are completely discretionary spends. Its not like needing to pay the electric bill????

    no good business owner in his right mind could have conceived of something so idiot?

    maybe somebody is drinking the coolaid or needs to report to the Betty ford clinic. The shareholders or the fools at Pacific Crest need to get someones head on a pike.

  • Reply to

    Not surprised by downward slide

    by graveylove Jun 6, 2014 4:44 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Jun 13, 2014 3:46 PM Flag

    priceline taking out opentable is a game changer.

    Expedia better quit waffling around with the homeaway listings or this company could be sold out and the partnership dissolved. Both Trip and Priceline could use Homeaway.

    as a homeaway investor either way its a win. We get 18 million hits per month thru expedia or a buyout premium from someone else.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Not surprised by downward slide

    by graveylove Jun 6, 2014 4:44 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Jun 10, 2014 9:45 AM Flag

    expedia get 18 million hits per month.

    doesn't seem like Homeaway would need any marketing with that type of traffic.

  • Reply to

    Not surprised by downward slide

    by graveylove Jun 6, 2014 4:44 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Jun 10, 2014 9:23 AM Flag

    he's a short.

    interesting set of upgrades and downgrades. First we get a downgrade because they need to spend money on marketing. Then we get and upgrade because of expedia and ppb.

    my question is why would they need to spend big $$ on marketing before they see the effects of placement on expedia. I'd wait, see how the brand expands due to massive exposure thru expedia. Who needs to pay for the exposure if they get it for free. Once people use the service and have a great experience...they are hooked.

    this stock is hated for unknown reasons. I guess if I were Hilton hotels I'd hate it.

  • Reply to

    Not sure how to trade this...

    by smoke_le May 21, 2014 6:21 AM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper May 21, 2014 7:28 AM Flag

    netflix is over-extending its supply lines. The competition in the USA is getting fierce and they are taking on new markets each with its unique set of problems. Not to mention that they are all euro socialist nations regulated to the hilt.

    Management needs to grow and improve dramatically which is very difficult to do.....failure is a very real possibility.

  • Reply to

    Looks like we'll test

    by evolution_1340 Apr 29, 2014 2:15 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper May 13, 2014 6:57 AM Flag

    read between the lines. The T direct TV merger is bad for Netflix.

    the AT&T merger with direct TV adds yet another competitor to the streaming mix. Now we get a CATV powerhouse with direct access to AT&Ts optical network. As a division of T that means they'll collocate into the AT&T central offices to get super fast access to the last mile making a very powerful competitor. They'll move the antennas from the houses and beam the content directly thru fiber.

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper May 12, 2014 5:39 PM Flag

    no particular volume to the move Friday or today. Could be a head fake. Just sitting at the 200dma.

    a lot of internet stocks up on low volume. sucker rally??

    is anybody other than a day trader/ HFTmachiine going to buy this junk?

  • Reply to

    Looks like we'll test

    by evolution_1340 Apr 29, 2014 2:15 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper May 11, 2014 7:39 PM Flag

    yet another competitor entering the mix....Dish will have internet streaming by year end.

    how many competitors before the Netflix biz gets chewed to pieces? No way to keep past growth rates into the future as many companies have duplicated the secret sauce. Eventually in a commodity biz somebody cuts price and starts a pricewar:

    pe of 20-30 is on the horizon

  • Reply to

    Good entry point. Could end in gree.

    by bosle007 May 6, 2014 12:02 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper May 11, 2014 8:10 AM Flag

    its either a falling knife or bottoming at support......howabout those waffles.

    away is a hated stock.....its really done nothing since IPO which isn't unusual for IPO stocks.....they eventually tank and then climb out of the basement after the initial thrill wears off.

    Unfortunately, regardless of the revenue growth, its getting priced like a MOMO stock. Is it a MOMO stock only time will tell?

    if I were priceline, trip advisor or expedia I'd look at this company as a buying opportunity. Expedia needs to get off top dead center and roll out Away on their site, but they are screwing around worrying about hurting their hotel biz.. They'd better watch out somebody might scoop these guys. This is coffee money for a priceline acquisition. Given that its a desirable property its probably keeping a bottom under the stock.

    This is one of those stocks you park and come back in 5 years.

  • Reply to

    Good entry point. Could end in gree.

    by bosle007 May 6, 2014 12:02 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper May 9, 2014 4:17 PM Flag

    gotta admit strong support at 30. This stock has been killed because its being treated like a MOMO. Its not really a MOMO cause it has good earnings increases.

    away has a long term biz plan and its sticky because it provides great value for the customers. It faces no real competition. Airbnb is #$%$ as is tripadvisor I don't use either site on my properties because they are junk.

  • Reply to

    Earnings not good enough

    by palosparkflash Apr 25, 2014 8:18 AM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper May 7, 2014 6:36 PM Flag

    good call....

    away is trading as a MOMO stock and feeling the effects of the beating that these stocks need to take.

    love the biz model, love the product, hate the price. Wouldn't touch it until Amazon hits $200 and starts approaching fair value. This is going under 30 and probably 25 before its over. Keep the powder dry.

  • Reply to

    Yellen 's address is very positive to the market

    by yibang May 7, 2014 10:57 AM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper May 7, 2014 6:03 PM Flag

    oops sorry longs.....Telsa getting devastated in after hours....

    name a MOMO that has beat earnings and gone up this earnings period?

    answer none. Its a never ending series of MOMO stock decimation with no reason to stop a crash and there was never any reason for the ascent.

    the jig is up, the cat is out of the bag, elvis has left the building

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Yellen 's address is very positive to the market

    by yibang May 7, 2014 10:57 AM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper May 7, 2014 4:01 PM Flag

    the market is hooked on stimulus. The yellen speech didn't help Netflix much. In the morning when the speech has warn off the selling can resume.

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper May 6, 2014 6:05 PM Flag

    the jig is up.....MOMO is tanking, oil and energy are the only safe havens...... money rotation into real assets and real businesses.

    Sell a streaming company with huge competition growing forward. The company has been gutted via stock compensation to the prinicpals in the scam. The remaining value...assets vs liabilities doesn't exist. These guys show 2 billion in intangible assets. That's trade secrets, copyrights, patents, trademarks. How can this be? Anyone with a server farm can stream video. Are you telling me house of cards has any residual value 2 years from now? NO.....ITS A HOUSE OF CARDS

    book value is actually negative. Once the subscriptions start churning due to price competition and net margins get slammed this stock will have zero liquidation value. The bondholders won't even get anything.

  • Reply to

    Looks like we'll test

    by evolution_1340 Apr 29, 2014 2:15 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper May 5, 2014 6:43 PM Flag

    the nature of low barrier to entry markets..........monopoly, duopoly and eventually perfect competition:

    IMHO the first mover NFLX monopoly is officially broken with real competition building expect pricing pressure moving forward:

    Competitior #1: Amazon cuts deal with HBO, becomes a legitimate contender for the streaming biz.

    competitor #2 Apple......sold 20 million apple tv boxes are per last earnings report....gaining momentum

    Competitor #3 Hulu
    ...ny times article from July 2013 year :

    "The three companies that mutually own Hulu — 21st Century Fox, the Walt Disney Company and NBCUniversal — said Friday that instead of selling the pioneering streaming video Web site, they would make a new investment of $750 million and use Hulu’s technology to compete against other online distributors like Netflix."....improving over time with significant financial backing.

    competitor #4 Redbox

    expect others to emerge as well ATT/Dish; Verizon FIOS; Comcast with new Xfinity box

  • Reply to

    Looks like we'll test

    by evolution_1340 Apr 29, 2014 2:15 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper May 1, 2014 6:03 PM Flag

    ok LNKD just busted....another stock that loses money on every transaction but makes up for it with volume. Like most MOMO stocks all the value is sucked away by the insiders thru stock options or other forms of tribute. Expenses were such they didn't make money.......wakeup people they aint never gonna make any money.

    Anyway, the last hits of MOMO dope are wearing off. Yellen is done. The FOMC is out of the way and they actually tapered which by all rights should have killed the MOMOs but people were so high they forgot to watch. Then ATT buys Dish, which was also really bad for NFLX but people were too smoked up to realize that another major competitor was just introduced. Hello can you say streaming pricewar? The 3rd competitor will absolutely decimate the pricing in this market. We got 2 major competitors now....who will be the 3rd major. When this happens the 2% net margins will get cut to the bone.

    Netflix takes a shot at the 200 DMA and gets beat back. So we get Friday, expect sell in am after the LNKD bust..

  • Reply to

    AT&T and directtv

    by keyshappyfun Apr 30, 2014 11:18 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper May 1, 2014 7:43 AM Flag

    Netflix was a virtual monopoly 2 years ago. Now its a duopoly with Amazon. Next year the field will seefull fledged competition. The biz will need to be priced accordingly with a P/E less than 30.

    anyone still use AOL? AOL had a similar monopoly for a few years back in the 1990s. Then everyone jumped into their market. Anyone remember PALM....ditto. Anyone remember netscape......ditto.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Looks like we'll test

    by evolution_1340 Apr 29, 2014 2:15 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Apr 29, 2014 5:25 PM Flag

    no actually a lot earlier than that.

    TWTR just busted bigtime in afterhours.

    today was the beginning of the FOMC meeting. In the past the MOMO addicts have expected an injection of MOMO juice to get the markets moving up. It was a monthly event were helicopter Ben would drop baggies from the sky so that MOMO addicts could increase their shares of NFLX.

    now that Yellen is in control and everything is wonderful, theres nobody to help the MOMO junkies. Even if she did care about the MOMO junkies, which she doesn't, she can't realistically print enough junk to compensate for the freefall that these stocks are currently in.

    wait till Friday after the meeting and Yellen is finished talking, after the methedone is gone...... then the snakes come.....250 could happen in a week.

  • Reply to

    Glad I covered my short.......

    by jvtreatmentsystems Apr 28, 2014 3:34 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Apr 28, 2014 6:39 PM Flag

    predictable bounce at 300.

    I wonder what the effect of margin calls is on all the MOMO ETFs and MOMO retail investors. After last week a lot of people are gonna get calls from their brokers asking for payments or risk liquidation. Gotta keep the selling pressure high?

    The greed/fear cycle of margin/leverage. Its so wonderful on the way up but so horrifying on the way down.

  • Reply to

    tempted to cover now............

    by jvtreatmentsystems Apr 25, 2014 3:47 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Apr 26, 2014 10:22 AM Flag

    curious to see what Yellen does over weekend. If she doesn't intervene the short party continues. She is after all Ben Light.

    now that the selling has accelerated for 3 days, that means margin calls should start factoring into the market. twitter alone lost a couple of billion in market cap Friday. Amazon lost 14 billion or there abouts.

    this would have happened 2 years ago if it wasn't for the helicopter.

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