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HomeAway, Inc. (AWAY) Message Board

erbium_doper 19 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 5, 2015 10:38 AM Member since: Jul 7, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Shale drillers’ hedges set to expire

    by coalbull9 Jul 3, 2015 5:35 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Jul 5, 2015 10:38 AM Flag

    so with no money to drill new wells we get low supply elasticity so when the LNG tankers roll 6% of the product oversees, there is no appreciable increase in supply. Price will continue to rise but supply won't keep up.

    bodes well for coal stocks, as electic utilities will run the coal instead of the Nat gas.

    if Oklahoma supreme court ruled in favor of increased lawsuits for earthquakes, other states likely to follow suit. The soft costs are likely to increase going forward, so nat gas prices will increase.

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Jul 4, 2015 7:59 AM Flag

    trying to get my head around the supply/demand curve on LNG/nat gas. I guess if the nat gas goes to substitute for home heating oil in asia, then the supply for electrical generation becomes less. The nat gas price increases and we get increased use of coal as a result. With the price of nat gas so low then we get some supply constraint as the desire to drill for a loss constrains supply. Or is the use of lng goes into the elimination of gas turbines which actually burn diesel then we don't get a substation for coal. If nat gas simply replaces coal then I don't see a net gain.

    it comes down to the elasticity of supply for nat gas. If supply isn't appreciably adjusted upward then coal prices have a shot at stabilizing.

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Jul 3, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    the other factor that may influence the price is that large Cheniere LNG export terminals will be coming on line year end 2015. If we see large exports of nat gas to asia were the price is enourmous, how will that effect US prices? If we see breakout of nat gas out of its trading range that would be a tailwind for Thermal coal.

    If 6% of US nat gas goes overseas its not clear on the impact to nat gas prices, as its not necessarily a linear function.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Jul 1, 2015 10:19 PM Flag

    mans been around about 3 million years if you count the monkeys. In this period we've had 10 ice ages.

    whats to believe that we aren't headed for another ice age. If we do whats the effect of global warming? Does it slow the next ice age another 20 years? ....30 years? It just doesn't matter, mother earth and first order effects will dominate regardless of what humans do. Burn as much coal as you want, its #$%$ in the wind.

    might as well send millions of people out of poverty with electricity with the most abundant easily utilizied form of energy......coal. Undergraduate eco-terrorists can't connect the dots maybe it because they smoke too much weed?

  • Reply to

    FINALLY , someone uses their brain

    by divin4tacos Jun 29, 2015 12:58 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Jun 29, 2015 7:52 PM Flag

    Whats the price that the stress your average household experiences because they can't make ends meet because they need to pay the 200 per month electric bill or they don't have a job?. Whats the death rate of heart disease as compared to CO2? Whats the comparison? 1000x times, 100,000 times as high? 1,000,000 as high. So a dollar of CO2 risk is actually a million dollars of stress related risk? I'll take cheap energy over co2 any day.

    the EPA is out of control...... thank god for the supreme court.

  • Reply to

    Shepard has been selling his shares for months

    by dr_ooopha Apr 24, 2015 8:41 AM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Jun 7, 2015 10:27 AM Flag

    shorts are trying to talk down the stock. As if a yahoo message board could do this...haha. Fact is even if away wants everyone on automatic payment some including myself will resist. I'll never go on autopay for my 2 properties and I don't need too because they are completely booked out. If I drop in the search order it doesn't matter, I'm getting enough bookings because the site is getting tremendous traffic. Even so I'd be willing to up my annual fee as my net margins have been improving year after year if I needed to increase in the search order but I don't. This all translates to more dollars for Homeaway and its customers. This thing is a freight train that's starting to roll out of the station, eventually it will increase speed and net margins that are well below, trip, airbnb, expedia, priceline will translate to the bottom line.

    100% autopay will never happen and who cares. So I can't book my property on expedia or kayak, once again who cares. Its only a goal. Goals will never be completely met and everyone with a brain knows it. So some properties can't be booked automatically....who cares. Many will be and that's all that matters.

    I say chill out and enjoy the ride, any reversion to the mean when Airbnb has a 20 billion market cap will cause this stock to climb. Airbnb is likely to come down and Homeaway will revert to Airbnbs mean which is an order of magnitude higher than the current stock price. The wildcard is with Kayak competing against Expedia its just a matter of time before Priceline gets into a pricewar with Expedia over Away ownership.

    this thing is undervalued at twice the price based on Private equity pricing models.

  • Reply to

    AWAY scam

    by dr_ooopha Apr 23, 2015 5:51 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper May 30, 2015 8:02 AM Flag

    i list on both airbnb and homeaway and we cancelled our airbnb because the customer gets charged 10% and the interface is mean and pathetic. Can't have a reasonable dialogue without having airbnb censor much of the meaningful information. If you do anything Airbnb doesn't like they threaten your ratings and attempt to strong arm you.

    airbnb may be a great service if you are renting out a college dorm room or stuffing somebody in a rent controlled apartment in manhattan but isn't set up for the high level of customer service required to serve more affluent customers that away caters to.

  • Reply to

    reinvent

    by rnsawaya May 19, 2015 6:24 AM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper May 19, 2015 4:25 PM Flag

    the coal guys need to enter the distribution into the massive home heating market that was killed by cheap heating oil back in the 60s.

    there are a lot of places that nat gas will never reach for a lack of pipelines that will never be built. The quality of the stocker boilers is currently superb. An example is EFM. When powder river sells for $10 per ton and heating oil/diesel is still north of $3 it makes me wanna scream when I fill up my oil tank in the basement. Unfortunately coal costs $300 per ton locally because its anthracite. But why wouldn't I burn PRB pea coal instead, a few less BTUs but who cares.

    Looks like a real possibility for a carry trade of cheap coal to the northeast. Stuff is 1/10 the price of oil imported from a bunch of really bad people? #$%$

  • Reply to

    NG on the rebound.

    by historyrepeats45 May 12, 2015 1:55 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper May 15, 2015 7:30 AM Flag

    agreed that future demand will likely be Chinese and indian demand driven. Albeit a lot of other countries with little money could benefit as well. The issue to date was the drop in Chinese consumption of coal. Their rate of energy consumption was huge and it hit the doldrums. Whether or not this is a blip on a multiyear curve is the issue. Once a nation become industrialized, in the case of the US since 1948 its a straightline of energy consumption northward.....at least that was the case for usa

    its a globalized multiyear strategy....noticed there was a newsfeed recently that implied that the Rothchilds were buying coal assets....you think they might know something about long term global trends that some 30 year old hedge funder doesn't?

  • Reply to

    NG on the rebound.

    by historyrepeats45 May 12, 2015 1:55 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper May 14, 2015 11:34 AM Flag

    at this point in the "war on coal" its all about the supreme court and the EPA. If the cost of electricity doesn't matter, then coal is dead. If the government can subsizide wind and solar, shut down plants, weaken the grid, and justify a 40 cent per Kwhr of power then its game over in the USA for the foreseeable future.

    very much a #$%$ shoot until we get some clarity from the courts.

  • Reply to

    Priceline

    by kalum0 Apr 24, 2015 7:25 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Apr 27, 2015 10:03 AM Flag

    Expedia had a similar occurrence of an earnings miss back in feb. They also claimed it was based on Foreign exchange losses. Their stock price suddenly recovered in a few days time. In their case it was a golden buying opportunity as they've run up considerably since that time.

    so expedia gets a hall pass, does AWAY get one as well?

  • Reply to

    Back above the 20 dma again

    by railsnstocks Apr 17, 2015 10:39 AM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Apr 17, 2015 3:20 PM Flag

    Obama is a socialist and believes in wealth redistribution. He also is entering his final term and it doesn't really matter if the market craters as he doesn't get a chance at re-election. So why would Obama care if wall street got socked in the nose? The only reason for him caring would be for Hillary to get re-elected or loyalty to his party. Otherwise he could care less if the evil CO2 spewing corporations got their just desserts.

  • Reply to

    Back above the 20 dma again

    by railsnstocks Apr 17, 2015 10:39 AM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Apr 17, 2015 2:54 PM Flag

    I think its " sell in may and go away" psychology.

    I'm out and will see what happens in a week.

    Also, when you have private equity firms pricing uber at 40 billion and sending etsy IPo for 3 billion its disconcerting. It appears that wall street now has a new Ponzi scheme. Its a new confidence game were they bid something up while its private and then IPO the stock sticking some retail investor with a bag of dung.
    Nothing like this ever ends well.

    Imagine a hamburger on a table, and a room full of wall street guys buying and selling that singular hamburger. When the hamburger goes over a billion $$$ bad things can happen.

  • Reply to

    danin? you buying?

    by shorthighcoverlower Apr 14, 2015 10:10 AM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Apr 17, 2015 12:56 PM Flag

    dannin,

    I was also buying lots of PBY back in the same time period....we conversed several times and I too made a lot of money on PBY.

    my latest thesis is less good for these auto parts suppliers. At the time we were entering the great recession and major catalyst for their business was people retaining and fixing their cars. Now that the O'riely and auto zone and advance have run up so much, I'm actually short their stocks. I think the boom times are over regardless what the analysts say aboiut increased drive miles due to cheap fuel. I'm thinking people start buying large quantities of new cars and predict north of 20 million per year sales. Eventually this will cause and downward slide in prices and total revenue will pressure net margin for these companies.

    Im a big seller but would love to hear your opinion as to why I might be wrong about this.

  • Reply to

    Coal on coal?

    by datagrinder Apr 13, 2015 7:55 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Apr 17, 2015 12:22 PM Flag

    could the owners be dinosaurs from days gone by? Very likely. Whenever you get a cash cow type business that generates huge cash flow the organization tends to collect large quantities of suits that moved up by agreeing to the status quo. The Regional Bell Operating companies are perfect examples of this. A new technology comes in, in this case nat gas, that breaks the monopoly and kills the cash cow. This is what you are seeing in coal management. So the people left are often too stupid or non creative to find new markets because they never really worked that hard when they were getting their stock options and playing golf or playing grab butt with the secretarial pool. It still amazes me how we have many people that will never get a gas line in front of their house who pay outrageous amounts for home heating oil and don't have coal as an option for substitution. These guys were too lazy/stupid to see the future and prepare for competition so they never developed other markets like retail coal sales were the price is 500% higher than prices sold to the power companies.

    that said, at some price its time to pick up the pieces at yardsale prices based on the intrinsic value of the assets. So BTU is a distressed asset purchase.

  • Uber has a private market cap of 40 billion dollars....they text people to give you a lift?

    Maslow's hierarchy of needs no longer applies? Maybe this is what happens when the metrosexuals are in charge....its more important to get a cheap cab ride then electricity or heating or steel.

  • Reply to

    Cracks emerge in coal-utility alliance

    by blackoutbuzz Apr 16, 2015 10:51 AM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Apr 16, 2015 2:09 PM Flag

    the USA is now urban vs rural....

    urban metrosexuals like obama vs guys who have tractors in their yards.

    guys that hang in a crib vs guys that hang in a barn

    guys with thin socks vs guys with thick socks....

    people who work in cubes vs people that produce real things like food, energy and structures

    guys who find their women using tinder vs guys who find their women by meeting them at church or playing beer pong

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Apr 12, 2015 8:53 PM Flag

    sports book guys have her at 5/4 odds to win. Nobody else is close.

  • Reply to

    AWAY vs AIRBNB

    by degenerate_gamblor Feb 5, 2015 4:29 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Apr 8, 2015 10:28 AM Flag

    eventually Expedia will buy out homeaway and the issue of Airbnb will be settled as Homeaway gets the marketing exposure of expedia. Expedia was created by acquiring companies, so its consistent with how the company formed. Away is the best quality in this space, already has a working agreement so no doubt they've had a look at their books. The acquisition is accretive and shouldn't hurt expedia's stock price.......with this market the expe stock price could rise.

    come on expedia buy it already, don't let captain kirk get first dibs.

AWAY
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