Obama is a socialist and believes in wealth redistribution. He also is entering his final term and it doesn't really matter if the market craters as he doesn't get a chance at re-election. So why would Obama care if wall street got socked in the nose? The only reason for him caring would be for Hillary to get re-elected or loyalty to his party. Otherwise he could care less if the evil CO2 spewing corporations got their just desserts.
I think its " sell in may and go away" psychology.
I'm out and will see what happens in a week.
Also, when you have private equity firms pricing uber at 40 billion and sending etsy IPo for 3 billion its disconcerting. It appears that wall street now has a new Ponzi scheme. Its a new confidence game were they bid something up while its private and then IPO the stock sticking some retail investor with a bag of dung.
Nothing like this ever ends well.
Imagine a hamburger on a table, and a room full of wall street guys buying and selling that singular hamburger. When the hamburger goes over a billion $$$ bad things can happen.
I was also buying lots of PBY back in the same time period....we conversed several times and I too made a lot of money on PBY.
my latest thesis is less good for these auto parts suppliers. At the time we were entering the great recession and major catalyst for their business was people retaining and fixing their cars. Now that the O'riely and auto zone and advance have run up so much, I'm actually short their stocks. I think the boom times are over regardless what the analysts say aboiut increased drive miles due to cheap fuel. I'm thinking people start buying large quantities of new cars and predict north of 20 million per year sales. Eventually this will cause and downward slide in prices and total revenue will pressure net margin for these companies.
Im a big seller but would love to hear your opinion as to why I might be wrong about this.
could the owners be dinosaurs from days gone by? Very likely. Whenever you get a cash cow type business that generates huge cash flow the organization tends to collect large quantities of suits that moved up by agreeing to the status quo. The Regional Bell Operating companies are perfect examples of this. A new technology comes in, in this case nat gas, that breaks the monopoly and kills the cash cow. This is what you are seeing in coal management. So the people left are often too stupid or non creative to find new markets because they never really worked that hard when they were getting their stock options and playing golf or playing grab butt with the secretarial pool. It still amazes me how we have many people that will never get a gas line in front of their house who pay outrageous amounts for home heating oil and don't have coal as an option for substitution. These guys were too lazy/stupid to see the future and prepare for competition so they never developed other markets like retail coal sales were the price is 500% higher than prices sold to the power companies.
that said, at some price its time to pick up the pieces at yardsale prices based on the intrinsic value of the assets. So BTU is a distressed asset purchase.
Uber has a private market cap of 40 billion dollars....they text people to give you a lift?
Maslow's hierarchy of needs no longer applies? Maybe this is what happens when the metrosexuals are in charge....its more important to get a cheap cab ride then electricity or heating or steel.
the USA is now urban vs rural....
urban metrosexuals like obama vs guys who have tractors in their yards.
guys that hang in a crib vs guys that hang in a barn
guys with thin socks vs guys with thick socks....
people who work in cubes vs people that produce real things like food, energy and structures
guys who find their women using tinder vs guys who find their women by meeting them at church or playing beer pong
eventually Expedia will buy out homeaway and the issue of Airbnb will be settled as Homeaway gets the marketing exposure of expedia. Expedia was created by acquiring companies, so its consistent with how the company formed. Away is the best quality in this space, already has a working agreement so no doubt they've had a look at their books. The acquisition is accretive and shouldn't hurt expedia's stock price.......with this market the expe stock price could rise.
come on expedia buy it already, don't let captain kirk get first dibs.
the Chinese industrialized in 2 decades, it tooks us a couple of hundred years to industrialize. Do you think a single year of "inflection" is a trend? They are just digesting this rapid growth. Long term expect their consumption of natural resources to resume.
The us total energy consumption is now 400% higher that it was in 1949. We had years that consumption had inflection points as well. but the trend was nearly a straightine up.
what data do you have that indicates the Chinese will consume less energy going forward. Renewables are a pittance of their current use...less than 1%. Even if they annually doubled their renewables how will they keep up with demand?
"The second main point we're going to make is that we need to have a reliability assurance mechanism, or safety valve," Cauley said. "If there's a reliability issue that comes up, we can't have an environmental rule that trumps reliability. We don't want to put companies in a position where it has to choose between violating an environmental rule or violating a reliability standard."
with smart meter technology its possible to load shed using automated methods.....
so make everyone with a meter decide if they want reliability or environmental power preference. For those who want environmental preference, load shed their meters first when loads become critical. Make them vote....if you want the coal plant eliminated...then you choose the environmental option for quality of service, which is low.
us account for less that 10% of the worlds coal consumption. While the US economy is still strong many other world economies are weak. When this trend changes, we'll see coal consumption pick up worldwide. Worldwide nobody cares about Obamas effort to use the EPA to fight a war on coal using executive orders except the liberal base he's pandering to. The climate change hula hoop is simply a political effort to rally for a cause and get votes for the next election. Its a false dilemma that the dems created for political gain. They don't care if electricity costs the middle class worker 40 cents a kilowatt and breaks their back because they don't really care about the middle class they only care about political gain and self aggrandizement. They use their defense of the middle class as a talking point for their political gain, just as they used their procoal talking points to buy votes during the last election only to turn around and betray the suckers who voted for them.
this down cycle will pass, the economics of coal energy are too compelling.
the bottom line is that the real growth in coal usage will be determined by less developed nations. Any of the natural resource plays are essentially the same. Look at steel scrap, talked to a guy from the scrap yard who was sitting on tons of scrap that had fallen in price. Right now the market is dead and he's taking a bath. Coal is in the same situation. With all the governments printing worldwide, eventually these markets will recover as these 2nd and 3rd world economies resume their consumption. Why? The first rule of economics, that wants always exceed needs. Once joe wang has extra cash in his pocket he'll buy a car or eat red meat or put lights into his house. Its just a matter of when, not if. So natural resource plays are cyclical. We are in the bottom of a down cycle so its time to load up on those that don't go bankrupt in the process of waiting. BTU is getting into a sweet spot were you can buy shares at option prices and ride out the storm. If it breaks significantly below $5 I'm out to wait for the next quantum level......but right now I'm long.
Timothy Puko And
Updated Feb. 26, 2015 11:27 p.m. ET
China’s coal consumption and production fell last year for the first time in 14 years, confirming a trend that has become one of the heaviest weights sinking the global coal market.
The world’s largest coal producer shrank both its output and demand by nearly 3%, according to fresh government data. The decline is an early sign of China’s success in joining countries around the world in trying to diminish air pollution and capitalize on falling oil and gas prices.
But analysts said the trend also is part of a worst-case scenario for coal miners the world over, who had hoped Chinese coal imports would save them from collapsing markets in the West.
The decrease puts China at or near an inflection point known as “peak coal,” at which a long-term decline in consumption of the mineral begins after decades of heavy use. The shift already is having knock-on effects, with coal prices world-wide falling to six-year lows, with mines closing throughout China and with some global mining companies facing insolvency.
Miners previously had “predicted a straight line of continued growth in China. Now here we are,” said Lucas Pipes, an analyst at Brean Capital LLC, an investment bank and asset-management firm. “That is a sea change in the global coal market.”
Data released by the government on Thursday show China used 5.9% more crude oil and 8.6% more natural gas in 2014. Coal output last year fell 2.5% to 3.87 billion metric tons from a year ago, while coal consumption fell 2.9%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
Economists had forecast China will hit peak coal around or slightly before 2020, but some analysts say there are signs that this has already happened. Coal demand in Europe and the U.S. is also shrinking, while growing economies like India aren’t importing enough to offset China’s outsize cutback.
International benchmark prices for the mineral have fallen nearly 50% to about $62 a metric ton and the U.S. benchmark has fallen 24% to $52.90 from peaks levels in 2012, when U.S. exports hit their high, according to Platts, a pricing service of McGraw Hill Financial Inc. Prices for metallurgical coal, which is used to make steel, have tumbled 55% from their 2012 peak to $102.8 a metric ton, as the Chinese government has moved to slow down its steel industry.
Chinese coal imports last year fell 10.9% from 2013 to 291.2 million tons, the bureau said.
“There’s no question that a lot of U.S. companies in particular latched their hope to significant gains in China…almost into perpetuity,” said Mark Levin, an analyst at BB&T Corp.’s capital-markets group. And given transportation costs, the U.S. miner is “the guy who gets priced out of Asia the fastest.”
A man loads coal into his tricycle cart at a processing station in Tangxian. Coal is still the dominant energy source in China. ENLARGE
A man loads coal into his tricycle cart at a processing station in Tangxian. Coal is still the dominant energy source in China. Photo: Associated Press
Coal’s troubles fit into larger struggles across the mining industry. Many companies boosted production to meet surging Chinese demand, only to oversupply the market. Miners have racked up major losses, but falling currencies and energy prices have cut costs and helped some producers keep ramping up production to compete for market share.
The goal of coal mining companies is to survive until there is a rebound for coal, which is still by far the dominant energy source in China. Some analysts have said Chinese coal consumption could rise slightly in the coming years if concerns about the flagging economy grow and prices for oil and other fuels shoot up. Many are hopeful about demand in India and other emerging markets.
The coal market is likely nearing a bottom, said Clive Burstow, a fund manager at Baring Asset Management Ltd. in London. His $10.1 million mining fund, part of $45.1 billion under management at Baring, looks for equities that can profit over three to five years. The coal market is clearly oversupplied now, but investments are slowing and emerging market demand is likely to lead a rebound in five years, he said. “Now is the time to be looking at coal companies,” Mr. Burstow said. “It does look very promising.”
just gonna take one announcement that Chinese GDP is increasing....then the price reverses:
older Huffingston post October 2013 news but still relevant
China, India to propel coal past oil by end of decade
* Muted impact from carbon policies aimed at curbing coal use
* China to drive two-thirds of coal growth this decade (Adds comments from Alstom on Asia power market, coal supply and prices; provides graphic link)
By Florence Tan
DAEGU, South Korea, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Coal will surpass oil as the key fuel for the global economy by 2020 despite government efforts to reduce carbon emissions, energy consultancy firm Wood Mackenzie said on Monday.
Rising demand in China and India will push coal past oil as the two Asian powerhouses will need to rely on the comparatively cheaper fuel to power their economies. Coal demand in the United States, Europe and the rest of Asia will hold steady.
Global coal consumption is expected to rise by 25 percent by the end of the decade to 4,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent, overtaking oil at 4,400 million tonnes, according to Woodmac in a presentation on Monday at the World Energy Congress.
"China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel," said William Durbin, president of global markets at Woodmac. "Unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable."
China - already the top consumer - will drive two-thirds of the growth in global coal use this decade. Half of China's power generation capacity to be built between 2012 and 2020 will be coal-fired, said Woodmac.
China has no alternative to coal, with its domestic gas output limited and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports more costly than coal, Durbin said.
"Renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source," he said.
the answer to the question is whats happening in Massachusetts:
Massachusetts consumers will pay significantly higher electric bills this winter as a persistent shortage of natural gas for generating plants drives power prices to record levels.
The cost for a typical household could top $150 a month, based on an announcement this week from one of the state’s two dominant utilities, National Grid. It said its rates will increase by a whopping 37 percent over last winter’s, solely because the cost of buying electricity from power plants has soared to the highest level in decades, according to a company spokesman.
Other utilities, including NStar, are also warning customers to brace for higher electric bills this winter, but they have not determined final rates for the winter.
“This is pretty bad, and it’s going to really have a bearing on a lot of Massachusetts households’ abilities to just make ends meet this winter,” said John Howat, senior energy analyst at the National Consumer Law Center in Boston.
The price shock is driven by New England’s increasing reliance on natural gas as a source for both heating homes and making electricity. The pipelines that ship natural gas into New England do not have enough capacity to meet the increased demand, and during winter, electric plants often end up paying much more for the fuel.
Other factors include the closing earlier this year of the coal-burning Salem Harbor Power Station and the planned shutdown of the Vermont Yankee nuclear plant, which will reduce the amount of electricity available to utilities this winter, said Dan Dolan, president of the New England Power Generators Association.
some crazy stuff going on in the retail electric market in New England.....
a buddy of mine from Mass just said his electric bill was $400 last month.....he said previous bills were as low as $200. My guess is that people aren't translating the cause and effect. Take the cheapest baseload out of the market and whats left? Its starting to hit people in the pocketbook.
how many people are willing to pay a $200/month global climate change tax?
the problem is that the technology to manage intermittent power sources in New England is years from implementation. Furthermore the costs to convert, assuming the breakthrough technologies occur, need to be subsidized as they are massive...billions if not trillions.
the greenies," viva la revolution" left brain impulses could drive us over the cliff.....so it is. Look at CUBA buildings collapse everyday because the average guy on the street only makes $20 per month and can't fix his house that was nationalized and provided to him free of cost .....taken from the running dogs.
if you have 1 store you have a monopoly, two stores a duopoly, 3 stores you get competition, 4 stores you get price wars. This hasn't been mentioned.
Cramers pothole presentation was the reason for Fridays lift as those in the know knew it would be broadcasting after the close. Cramers hypothesis has various weak points. The most important non-sequiter he mentioned was average car age 10-11 years. My disagreement with this is that after years of crawling under a car since the great recession started, its my belief that people have worn out their cars and want new cars.....wouldn't you? People are less inclinded to fix their old beater and buy a new one. I have a full garage with lift and snapons I bought a new pickup and sent my 2000 away. Haven't done any real maintenance other than oil changes this entire year. I was at the autoparts store monthly the prior year fixing stuff. When biz is good the carpenter will buy a new truck because he can't afford to have breakdowns and miss work. When work was slow, he didn't buy a new one because he didn't have enough work to make payments. When work was slow and the truck broke down, he delayed work because he had time and fixed the truck.
what does some wall street 30 something analyst suit which expensive shoes and thin socks know about the boots on the ground autoparts business? When did cramer ever have grease under his fingernails?
Sentiment: Strong Sell
you are driving in the rear view mirror....they "had" a great run rate. New cars sales have been up 12 consecutive months. When everyone buys new cars there is less need to buy replacement parts. Hell I bought pep boys 5 years ago and made a lot when I bought it at $3. But for all the same reasons I'm selling it now.
its called overshoot.....stocks shoot over the price they should trade at. AZO is a poster child for overshoot....there is no way in hell business can be as good going forward with everyone replacing their fleet of older cars. So the future isn't as bright as it was 4 years ago but the stock price doesn't reflect this truth.
Sentiment: Strong Sell