you gotta be on meds to handle the news flow on the china economy...
its good, its bad, its good, its bad, its good its bad.
last few days it was bad, I give it 5 days and it will be good again.
The politicos are going to use energy as a weapon against the Russians, some morning we'll wake up and I'll be investing with other peoples money. Aint gonna be long either, I expect it any day now. American energy has always been our trump card weapon, we pull it out as necessary. It will be pulled out again to kick putin in the nuts..Then we will be on the trajectory back to 20.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
its very irrational.
I think we get a groundswell of support for the need to export nat gas so the Eutopeans don't get shocked by the Russian issue. Eventually the cause and effect of thermal coal vs nat gas inventories and prices will come home to roost.
I've been out for several months, but now back to buy at yard sale prices.
midterms coming up a lot of democratic senators will be getting nervous and will move to the middle to cover their butts.....I.remember barry loved coal right before the elections.
Some people haven't connected the dots. Ciena currently isn't in china. China mobile selected Ericsson for their 4G LTE rollout. A partnership with ericsson now gives Ciena a major customer in the most populated country in the world. I'm still amazed that they didn't just buy Ciena outright. But who knows maybe they wanted to work with them awhile before they made their buyout offer. That way they get more information and data by which to make an offer.
exactly only fools think of Comcast as cable tv.
....lvtl, win, xo, etc will fail in that they lack the attachment rights on the last mile. Much of the fiber is old, IRUd and limited in use. Unlike Comcast wich owns the strand [600,000 miles] and can simply upgrade their fiber for reasonable cost if fiber is limited. Also CLECs have invested heaviliy in expensive tdm technology that is functionally obsolete. Comcast can buy very reasonably priced Carrier Ethernet gear [like ciena] that's prepackaged to be placed on the wall for minimal installation costs. This stuff is 1/20 the price of the Futitsu and other legacy TDM equipment. . Its autoloads a configuration from a server and is functional in minutes with minimal tech time.
they are going to mop the floor with these incumbent CLECs in the lucrative biz space. The incumbent CLECs days are numbered. Comcast makes higher margins at a fraction of the price of their competitors.
the perfect play....go long Comcast, long ciena, hedge the broader market by going short LVLT, TWTC, XO, WIn.
also short T as its cellular biz is in a price war and Comcast will eat their lunch on business services. Comcast has a non union duopoly in the local market. Its the best cash generating machine in the space.
so much for all the cdn networks like amazon, akami, level3 etc
the Netflix deal proves that Comcast can build their own cdn network and cut out the middlemen....
Comcast has 600,000 route miles, they can just do optical add/drop and pick up all the players around their network. Cut out the middlemen. They are the internet.
you got it.
they will roll out direct gige fiber feeders to business for a fraction of the price that a RBOC, LVLT, TWTC or other cap access provider is doing it for. There is carrier ethernet equipment that goes back to the headend that can drop a gige for a couple of grand per business. This service is mucho expensive and these guys will do it for pennies on the dollar as compared to the SDN infrastructure that currently exists. They have ciena 6500 OTN on the backbone so they can turn up 100g waves.
I don't see the reason for MPLS when you have Q in Q
they won't need to buy Lvlt as a lot of their wave equipment is obsolete. Those guys will just die on the vine.
any word on the status of a CRAN upgrade?
disclosure long cmcsa, short LVLT
Comcast has 145,000 route miles of fiber. To replicate this network its gonna cost GOOGle $30k per mile to get attachment rights and build the plant. Then its gonna take years to do it. The cost of plant will be 138x the cost of what Comcast has their assets listed on their PPE.
Add time warner into the mix and you grow cash like sprinking water on a chia pet. These guys are untouchable .
bigger players shaking out the weak hand momo buyers....
send the price down a couple of points pre market..#$%$ out the weak longs and then run it back up.
I'm guessing those treated you well.
well that a 5 for 5 event.
expedia, trip advisor, orbitz, homeaway and priceline after hours.
I'm guessing home away will be up again tomorrow after the priceline beat.
expe, trip and oww all beat estimates and are all up big
away and pcln are on deck
Comcast buyout of Time Warner is very good for Ciena. Comcast uses 6500 OTN. Expect that the time warner properties will have 6500 OTN as well. The first technical challenge would be expanding the CRAN network to include the Time Warner headends......that's a lot of headends folks.
whatever happens hold your stock.
I think you could see trip going after away. During the end of the Trip CEO call he stated that they would be going after acquistions that make long term sense for the company. They have flipkey and can see the value in AWAY that priceline and expedia may not see as they don't do vacation rentals . Sounded very aggressive.
if you do a 6 month compare of expedia vs homeway there is amazing correlation in the two charts.
go back to late October and you'll see a major uptick in EXPE. Then look a few days later for AWAYs earnings and you see an almost identical move. Not saying that one begats the other, but they are trading in lockstep.
is expedia a leading indicator for homeway? I think it is.
those calls will go up big on a 15% move. My guess is if they have a blowout like expedia we are vectoring to 50.
if you look at Sharples selling it has occurred all along thru the years.
Insiders selling doesn't correlate well with stock prices. Very little information there.
Insider buying is better but still suspect.
trip advisior up big with Expedia earnings but it appears that Away has yet to be effected as a sympathy trade.
could happen this afternoon or not at all....who knows but online travel is hot right now.
expedia just announced blowout earnings up nearly 13% after hours.
homeaway has a special arrangement with Expedia. A very good indicator of the future.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
also could be the news of the t mobile att price war which has spooked the telecom companies.
however, if it did sell off it sold for the wrong reasons....a pricewar is actually good for the equipment makers as the carriers will feel compelled to improve their networks to maintain or increase market share. T gets hammered by t mobile so it decides to turn up the heat on 4 g deployments even more than before. That means a lot of optics to the cell sites....ditto Tmobile who will also rush to improve their coverage for fear of being left behind.......a major feedback loop is created. The classic example of this behavior are countries at war that buy more cannon to defeat the other side. In the end the cannon makers win out with big sales. The Krupp family did this for centuries.
pacific crest reiterates outperform....they must have listened to the citi conference call
citi conference went very well....its online for anyone to hear. Always amazes me how Shaples and atchinson know the business inside and out. What they say resonates as very factual, insightful and honest. They are also willing to discuss weakness...eg. Leakage. Had a property manager bait and switch me during a recent trip, so this is a real issue. But they addressed it and have a plan. Would expect citi to start coverage with an outperform....
at the top of the IPO curve with a breakout we should set sale for $50 near term