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HomeAway, Inc. (AWAY) Message Board

erbium_doper 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 3, 2015 9:11 PM Member since: Jul 7, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Obama when for a run and couldn't breathe....

    by coalfox1 Aug 3, 2015 2:35 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Aug 3, 2015 9:11 PM Flag

    So Obama smokes and hates coal? Save the world AL gore style by flying a private jet, living in a McMansion and owning a Yacht. Its OK to by a hypocrite and be president?

  • Reply to

    Needs to go up 49 percent

    by billspringxyz Jul 20, 2015 3:27 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Jul 20, 2015 8:44 PM Flag

    this stock reminds me of going to monte carlo, and being on the roulette wheel and doubling down 7x in a row.

    so now the bet is whether or not they go bankrupt. Several factors to consider, is china going to rebound?, were is india in all of this?, is Bernie sanders going to run as an independent virtually assuring that Hillary loses her presidential bid, thus Obama is replaced by a coal friendly administration and multiple executive orders get rewritten including export terminals for coal shipments to Asia, increased LNG capacity worldwide. EPA is told to back down, and we get a modern day James Watt in the administration.

    the climate could change dramatically in 6 months.

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Jul 20, 2015 8:09 AM Flag

    so the Chinese are talking co2 reductions with the worlds greenies meanwhile they study sun Tzu and do what ever the communist hierarchy wants to do.....claiming they will reduce their CO2 usage for political purposes and buy the cheap coal for economic purposes? When they control the numbers and own the pen what would anyone expect?

  • Reply to

    CSX beats estimated

    by summitrps Jul 14, 2015 4:14 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Jul 14, 2015 8:54 PM Flag


  • Reply to

    Shale drillers’ hedges set to expire

    by coalbull9 Jul 3, 2015 5:35 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Jul 5, 2015 10:38 AM Flag

    so with no money to drill new wells we get low supply elasticity so when the LNG tankers roll 6% of the product oversees, there is no appreciable increase in supply. Price will continue to rise but supply won't keep up.

    bodes well for coal stocks, as electic utilities will run the coal instead of the Nat gas.

    if Oklahoma supreme court ruled in favor of increased lawsuits for earthquakes, other states likely to follow suit. The soft costs are likely to increase going forward, so nat gas prices will increase.

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Jul 4, 2015 7:59 AM Flag

    trying to get my head around the supply/demand curve on LNG/nat gas. I guess if the nat gas goes to substitute for home heating oil in asia, then the supply for electrical generation becomes less. The nat gas price increases and we get increased use of coal as a result. With the price of nat gas so low then we get some supply constraint as the desire to drill for a loss constrains supply. Or is the use of lng goes into the elimination of gas turbines which actually burn diesel then we don't get a substation for coal. If nat gas simply replaces coal then I don't see a net gain.

    it comes down to the elasticity of supply for nat gas. If supply isn't appreciably adjusted upward then coal prices have a shot at stabilizing.

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Jul 3, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    the other factor that may influence the price is that large Cheniere LNG export terminals will be coming on line year end 2015. If we see large exports of nat gas to asia were the price is enourmous, how will that effect US prices? If we see breakout of nat gas out of its trading range that would be a tailwind for Thermal coal.

    If 6% of US nat gas goes overseas its not clear on the impact to nat gas prices, as its not necessarily a linear function.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Jul 1, 2015 10:19 PM Flag

    mans been around about 3 million years if you count the monkeys. In this period we've had 10 ice ages.

    whats to believe that we aren't headed for another ice age. If we do whats the effect of global warming? Does it slow the next ice age another 20 years? ....30 years? It just doesn't matter, mother earth and first order effects will dominate regardless of what humans do. Burn as much coal as you want, its #$%$ in the wind.

    might as well send millions of people out of poverty with electricity with the most abundant easily utilizied form of energy......coal. Undergraduate eco-terrorists can't connect the dots maybe it because they smoke too much weed?

  • Reply to

    FINALLY , someone uses their brain

    by divin4tacos Jun 29, 2015 12:58 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Jun 29, 2015 7:52 PM Flag

    Whats the price that the stress your average household experiences because they can't make ends meet because they need to pay the 200 per month electric bill or they don't have a job?. Whats the death rate of heart disease as compared to CO2? Whats the comparison? 1000x times, 100,000 times as high? 1,000,000 as high. So a dollar of CO2 risk is actually a million dollars of stress related risk? I'll take cheap energy over co2 any day.

    the EPA is out of control...... thank god for the supreme court.

  • Reply to

    Shepard has been selling his shares for months

    by dr_ooopha Apr 24, 2015 8:41 AM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Jun 7, 2015 10:27 AM Flag

    shorts are trying to talk down the stock. As if a yahoo message board could do this...haha. Fact is even if away wants everyone on automatic payment some including myself will resist. I'll never go on autopay for my 2 properties and I don't need too because they are completely booked out. If I drop in the search order it doesn't matter, I'm getting enough bookings because the site is getting tremendous traffic. Even so I'd be willing to up my annual fee as my net margins have been improving year after year if I needed to increase in the search order but I don't. This all translates to more dollars for Homeaway and its customers. This thing is a freight train that's starting to roll out of the station, eventually it will increase speed and net margins that are well below, trip, airbnb, expedia, priceline will translate to the bottom line.

    100% autopay will never happen and who cares. So I can't book my property on expedia or kayak, once again who cares. Its only a goal. Goals will never be completely met and everyone with a brain knows it. So some properties can't be booked automatically....who cares. Many will be and that's all that matters.

    I say chill out and enjoy the ride, any reversion to the mean when Airbnb has a 20 billion market cap will cause this stock to climb. Airbnb is likely to come down and Homeaway will revert to Airbnbs mean which is an order of magnitude higher than the current stock price. The wildcard is with Kayak competing against Expedia its just a matter of time before Priceline gets into a pricewar with Expedia over Away ownership.

    this thing is undervalued at twice the price based on Private equity pricing models.

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