Comcast buyout of Time Warner is very good for Ciena. Comcast uses 6500 OTN. Expect that the time warner properties will have 6500 OTN as well. The first technical challenge would be expanding the CRAN network to include the Time Warner headends......that's a lot of headends folks.
Some people haven't connected the dots. Ciena currently isn't in china. China mobile selected Ericsson for their 4G LTE rollout. A partnership with ericsson now gives Ciena a major customer in the most populated country in the world. I'm still amazed that they didn't just buy Ciena outright. But who knows maybe they wanted to work with them awhile before they made their buyout offer. That way they get more information and data by which to make an offer.
also could be the news of the t mobile att price war which has spooked the telecom companies.
however, if it did sell off it sold for the wrong reasons....a pricewar is actually good for the equipment makers as the carriers will feel compelled to improve their networks to maintain or increase market share. T gets hammered by t mobile so it decides to turn up the heat on 4 g deployments even more than before. That means a lot of optics to the cell sites....ditto Tmobile who will also rush to improve their coverage for fear of being left behind.......a major feedback loop is created. The classic example of this behavior are countries at war that buy more cannon to defeat the other side. In the end the cannon makers win out with big sales. The Krupp family did this for centuries.
she makes me want to bing watch duck dynasty as I clean/oil my deer rifle........
ciena to $35 in 2014.....good luck to longs.
whatever happens hold your stock.
I think you could see trip going after away. During the end of the Trip CEO call he stated that they would be going after acquistions that make long term sense for the company. They have flipkey and can see the value in AWAY that priceline and expedia may not see as they don't do vacation rentals . Sounded very aggressive.
you gotta be on meds to handle the news flow on the china economy...
its good, its bad, its good, its bad, its good its bad.
last few days it was bad, I give it 5 days and it will be good again.
The politicos are going to use energy as a weapon against the Russians, some morning we'll wake up and I'll be investing with other peoples money. Aint gonna be long either, I expect it any day now. American energy has always been our trump card weapon, we pull it out as necessary. It will be pulled out again to kick putin in the nuts..Then we will be on the trajectory back to 20.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
exactly only fools think of Comcast as cable tv.
....lvtl, win, xo, etc will fail in that they lack the attachment rights on the last mile. Much of the fiber is old, IRUd and limited in use. Unlike Comcast wich owns the strand [600,000 miles] and can simply upgrade their fiber for reasonable cost if fiber is limited. Also CLECs have invested heaviliy in expensive tdm technology that is functionally obsolete. Comcast can buy very reasonably priced Carrier Ethernet gear [like ciena] that's prepackaged to be placed on the wall for minimal installation costs. This stuff is 1/20 the price of the Futitsu and other legacy TDM equipment. . Its autoloads a configuration from a server and is functional in minutes with minimal tech time.
they are going to mop the floor with these incumbent CLECs in the lucrative biz space. The incumbent CLECs days are numbered. Comcast makes higher margins at a fraction of the price of their competitors.
the perfect play....go long Comcast, long ciena, hedge the broader market by going short LVLT, TWTC, XO, WIn.
also short T as its cellular biz is in a price war and Comcast will eat their lunch on business services. Comcast has a non union duopoly in the local market. Its the best cash generating machine in the space.
Comcast has 145,000 route miles of fiber. To replicate this network its gonna cost GOOGle $30k per mile to get attachment rights and build the plant. Then its gonna take years to do it. The cost of plant will be 138x the cost of what Comcast has their assets listed on their PPE.
Add time warner into the mix and you grow cash like sprinking water on a chia pet. These guys are untouchable .
its very irrational.
I think we get a groundswell of support for the need to export nat gas so the Eutopeans don't get shocked by the Russian issue. Eventually the cause and effect of thermal coal vs nat gas inventories and prices will come home to roost.
I've been out for several months, but now back to buy at yard sale prices.
midterms coming up a lot of democratic senators will be getting nervous and will move to the middle to cover their butts.....I.remember barry loved coal right before the elections.
personal rule of trading.......buy the leaps. Too short time windows too much risk. Buy deeper in the moneys with a long expiration. This stock is re defining an entire industry. Its actually a e commerce revolution taking place. I'm still getting lots of first time home away guests that had great experiences vs hotels.....being able to cook ones own meals is huge. It saves big $$$ for families and makes the experience superior. Also not hanging out at the end of the bed vs a hotel. Night and day difference for less money. My take is its going to go viral once people have great experiences. Also the rating system increases the probability that you'll have a good time and not get screwed.
love the company and what it brings to travel....
given that ciena has a lot of submarine cable sales and 6500 does a great job with older fiber cable and dispersion/PMD problems, why would Level 3 source select Infinera over ciena? Seems like a lot of risk given that most of the major carriers are selecting Ciena instead of infinera? Why would somebody risk their network to a provider that hasn't signed a major carrier? By following the major carriers you have the benefit of high unit production and somebody else paying for all the bugs that is inherent in any system to be worked out. L3 got burned buying cheap Chinese equipment before that had a lot of deployment problems. If INFN gets picked it sounds pennywise and pound foolish.
citi conference went very well....its online for anyone to hear. Always amazes me how Shaples and atchinson know the business inside and out. What they say resonates as very factual, insightful and honest. They are also willing to discuss weakness...eg. Leakage. Had a property manager bait and switch me during a recent trip, so this is a real issue. But they addressed it and have a plan. Would expect citi to start coverage with an outperform....
at the top of the IPO curve with a breakout we should set sale for $50 near term
pacific crest reiterates outperform....they must have listened to the citi conference call
if you look at Sharples selling it has occurred all along thru the years.
Insiders selling doesn't correlate well with stock prices. Very little information there.
Insider buying is better but still suspect.
trip advisior up big with Expedia earnings but it appears that Away has yet to be effected as a sympathy trade.
could happen this afternoon or not at all....who knows but online travel is hot right now.
the world is being changed by this company.....just take a minute to think about it.
20 years ago if I wanted to go abroad....I'd need a team of people to get me visas, find accomodations, get flights with a travel agent to stay in a hotel. It was very difficult to make a call depending on the telephone carriers and voice mail jail. A car was a royal pain. Forget renting a house on the local economy....that would never happen.
now I get on my smart phone, book a flight on orbitz along with a rental car, get on homeaway with world class accomodations for my entire family in any country in the free world in less than an hour of time. After all that I fly in, grab my car electronically, drive to the digs with my Garmin and voila.... on the beach for happy hour.
so much for all the cdn networks like amazon, akami, level3 etc
the Netflix deal proves that Comcast can build their own cdn network and cut out the middlemen....
Comcast has 600,000 route miles, they can just do optical add/drop and pick up all the players around their network. Cut out the middlemen. They are the internet.
if you do a 6 month compare of expedia vs homeway there is amazing correlation in the two charts.
go back to late October and you'll see a major uptick in EXPE. Then look a few days later for AWAYs earnings and you see an almost identical move. Not saying that one begats the other, but they are trading in lockstep.
is expedia a leading indicator for homeway? I think it is.
those calls will go up big on a 15% move. My guess is if they have a blowout like expedia we are vectoring to 50.
expe, trip and oww all beat estimates and are all up big
away and pcln are on deck