We need volume... it's a dead cat bounce without higher volume than yesterday.
Maybe, just maybe, the MMs are going to do to the shorts what they've been doing to longs for the last few sessions...
C'mon, if you're going to bash, don't say stupid stuff.
The current customer is HP - was mentioned by name. There's another one that just passed final qualification, but don't know who that is.
As for shares being issued, as the price drops, so does the 15% discount HB gets - and the more illiquid the market for UNXL shares get. It is not in HB's interest to let the price drop further.
That being said, we are being shorted heavily here - we have tripped the circuit breaker the last 2 days. And I expect that tomorrow and Friday. My hope is for a blow-off bottom on Monday, likely below $2. Absent news, that is the best case.
I voted NO, too - they need to produce or shut up shop. The fact is, if they don't get the film working by October and with better margins, it'll all be moot.
Hoping all those red bars this morning are overwhelmed by green this afternoon
I got lots of thumbs down when I predicted we'd test $3, but we're now there. You could predict the few tutes who had stakes bailing, and now they are.
But MMs take the buy side of those dumped trades - and they'll only make money if they can lay them off on someone. That would point to an eventual reversal - damned if they want to be super-long here and definitely not with BK being a real possibility by year's end (if Hawthorne fails to execute on bringing the CIT process in-house).
I would not be surprised to go below $3, either - there are probably some firms who give margin on Pixie down to $3, and I can see a shakeout to get those people to dump, too.
But, are we doomed to bump along this area for the foreseeable future - or is someone going to step up?
Something tells me we will not get any real recovery until there is news - which may not be until Labor Day. Lord knows I pray that I am wrong - but I just don't see why the price would reverse after this string of awful news.
Yes, yes, XSense has customers - but we took on bad short-term debt, and we all got screwed by HB accelerating the bond payments.
BTW, I would not be surprised to see HB doing this over and over again - buy the shares at discount, sell them around market, make a small profit, but keep the ownership below 10%.
Still, who the heck is going to buy this anytime soon?
Eric - very, very sad, but not willing to change sentiment to Sell yet
Not a liar, nor two-faced. But I have gone from being a silent Pixie cheerleader to being in full Missouri mode ("Show Me" state).
I liked a lot of what I heard yesterday - really. But, until I see expanded margins or new sales, I do not trust the execution capabilities of Hawthorne (although the guy from Atmel - Shaykh? - i don't know about).
And I do appreciate three things in particular about the CC:
a) the candor about DG being a less than 10% product - would have set of alarm bells if he hadn't, since he's just selling the resin
b) the general tone was improved - he opened up a lot in the Q&A, dropping hints about the Tier 1 Asian phone client (I guess that would be Samsung, Xiaomi or Huawei?), explaining how you get from 10% margin to 40% in some detail. Much more forthcoming than last time
c) being CFP (cash flow positive) in Q2 next year and maybe in Q1
But, let's be clear - until I'm much less underwater than I am now (and I'm over $160K under - my average cost basis is about $10.96), I will no longer be impressed by anything than results. Plans are great, and so are expectations, but Pixie has slipped a lot of deadlines, both under Reed and Hawthorne.
And, to hoton and the other pom-pom-ers, current sales don't interest me - we didn't sell them. Yes, I want to go back to the transcript and see what that $4MM per quarter is - is it expenses, or cash burn. If it's expenses, then it might include the equipment depreciation, which puts us closer to operating margins. I also don't know how much of those figures include the costs of probably shuttering The Woodlands and/or Lufkin, and laying off staff.
But I need to see execution that moves the needle - 10% margin doesn't cut it, and relying on HP and only HP (CC made clear it was the only customer of size in production - although one other just passed final qualification) doesn't either.
So, not a liar - just a real change in sentiment that only abandoning 3 years of InTouch can bring.
The goodies were all in the Q&A. However, no real short-term improvement in hard numbers, so...
I expect a test of $3 tomorrow. Sigh.
In 3 months, the future may be brighter... Lots of hints, but nothing is realized yet.
From the 14A:
At the Special Meeting, you will be asked to ratify the terms of the issuance and sale of the Company’s Senior Secured Convertible Notes together with Warrants and to approve the issuance of all shares of the Company’s common stock issuable upon the conversion of the Senior Secured Convertible Notes and exercise of the Warrants, without need for any limitation or cap on issuance or restriction on adjustments to the conversion price or exchange price, as applicable, as provided therein, as required by and in accordance with NASDAQ Marketplace Rules 5635(a) and 5635(d).
"Without need for any limitation or cap on issuance" = no cap on dilution
The vote is not on the merger. It is strictly on whether or not the notes can be paid off in shares, regardless of the current share price. Right now, if they had to pay off the entire $15 million in shares, you'd be looking at over 4 million new shares. I'm not willing to agree to that.
If the proposal had put a particular cap on the conversion price (let's say $8/share), I might reconsider. But with this in place, the bondholders could short this to death to maximize their conversion of the notes.
We have enough problems with the shorts as it is.
Let Hawthorne deliver - and then the whole thing is moot. But, if he delays or fails again, I don't want to give him the lifeline of over 20% dilution.
Read the 14A (a link is on Market Pulse) - did I read it wrong?
Nope - still siting on 22,900 shares. Not happy in the least about it in the least, either. I want actual results - I'm hoping in a year's time I can get out with a significantly smaller loss (my cost basis is about $10.96)
My shares are voting No. I'm tired of Pixie's failures being borne on the back of shareholders, like the $32 secondary. I'm not willing to agree to unlimited dilution - if Hawthorne can't expand margins or increase sales in the timeline he's talked about, let him use cash and UNXL go Chapter 11.
I distinctly remember that we were going to ship in Q4 last year, which became Q2 this year, which... oh, right. It went poof.
Put up or shut up, Hawthorne - with house money, not my shares.
I think you have 3 days to make up a margin call, so today should be the last day - maybe some stragglers on Monday because of Wednesday's drop.
Chances are, however, that any rally will be modest. I think $5 is a reasonable ceiling until there is substantive news. I think that may change in July/August, when I believe they hope to have the film equipment in house and we'll get the Q2 CC, which should hopefully show real revenue and give us a real sense of post-transaction cash burn.
I have more hope for the Q3 call in November, where we may see some margin expansion news.
I don't think this will do anything by itself - if there is positive news after the bell (e.g. early install of the catalytic film equipment, which is extremely unlikely), maybe. Absent that, given the responses re: Diamond Guard and the XSense deal on the last call, it should be a non-event.
Sorry - wish it were otherwise. Seriously.
or stock - they can go either way. I assume if they're getting sales traction, they'll do cash. Otherwise, they might dilute (hope not).
We said the same thing at $10 and $5.... Eventually you will be right.
Shorting here may be dumb but not because of the risk of the price going up. It's a bad short because the possible gain probably doesn't justify the carrying costs.
But look... At this point I place no faith in Pixie mgmt until I see actual progress - new sales and expanded margins. Without both, this stock will not command a decent multiple.
Given the last twelve months of delays and zero revenue, I'm bearish. Business is profits, not just solving an engineering problem. Although, like a college lab exercise, Pixie threw away its work
Eric of the near-worthless 22,900 shares
Not for nothing - Friday when the margin calls bite, you will probably test $3. Not that it's necessarily warranted, but don't be shocked - purely as a technical matter.
At that point, I'll have lost over 72% of my investment - guess I'll be working until I'm 80.