"What bothers me is the lack of sponsorship(recommendations) from the major players on Wall Street, although we've had upgrades from Leerink and Cowen, why haven't we seen any new recommendations from the likes of ML,GS,JPM,MS,etc"
"I am actually somewhat alarmed by the increase of short interest..."
You're both looking to an outside source for some confirmation that you've made a good investment. When the mainstream analysts climb on board, that's probably a god signal that the rally is near the end. The bigger the short position, the larger the eventual pressure to cover.
The worrisome thing should be the climbing share price. Eventually we reach something approaching fair value. Psychologically though the rising share price usually inspires more confidence that the rally can only continue to higher and higher levels. Despite the overall market, I see continued positive news flow fundamentally pushing the stock higher through ESMO. That might be a good time to reassess where we go next.
"Congrats to anyone who bought the 275,000 shares $7.30 each, they all just made $110,000 in 15 minutes..
How about my 90 shares at $7.20? I got a partial fill in the pre-market. That should be at least 7 or 8 more BIG Mac meals. I guess the next question is what do the Germans do? You have to wonder about the future of an organization with France as one of its two pillars of stability.
"The fear is that they are the first domino which will trigger other countries to follow suit and eventually lead to the collapse of the entire EU."
I'm having a tough time trying to figure out exactly how this will impact EXEL's business prospects. Perhaps a chain of events leading to governmental reimbursement agencies seeking lower drug prices due to a generally poor economic environment. That's the best I can come up with. I can make a direct connection to how this effects EXEL share price. It's still a supply/demand market with margin calls and all that entails. Drug companies may be somewhat recession proof, but their shares are not. Tried to pick some up in the pre-market, but there wasn't enough volume to support my bid.
"tight trading range also...no more room for big macs :)..."
Getting tougher and riskier to scalp a few hundred. Earlier this week I did make a buy at 7.65. I was getting ready to take a profit and decided to fold them into the core position instead. I'm pretty sure I see how ESMO is going to play out, but past that it gets a bit foggy. Starting on Jul 1 we can start counting down the days it closes above $6.91. Rather remarkable that they got a sustained rally to carry the share price above the 130% threshold at just the right time to convert the debt. It does nag at me just a bit that things aren't usually this easy. We'll see.
"I suppose it might be the suitor that goes public with their offer amount if the buyer thought the price more than fair - but what if the board were holding out for a grand slam when majority investors would be happy with a 2-run homer? How would we know about any offers?"
I'm sure someone will argue about fiduciary responsibility and withholding material information. Set those arguments aside, here is what happens in the real world. Company A makes an offer for company B. Company B rejects the offer as inadequate. If Company A thinks they can go around the board and management of B, they will make the offer public. They can do a public tender to try to gain control or approach the shareholders to exert pressure on the reluctant management. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. Sometimes company B will seek a White Knight with a better offer. Once the whole thing goes public, there is a good chance something will happen. If an offer is made and rejected, and the suitor does not go public, we the shareholders will never find out anything happened.
"ASCO 2016 Update: Checkpoint Immunotherapy Advances in Solid Cancers"
"This combination also improved 6-month overall survival, from 1% in patients treated with the standard of care, to 72%."
That looks like a typo to me. If I recall, regorafenib has about a 6 1/2 month mOS.
"USPSTF Issues New Colorectal Cancer Screening Guidelines"
Don't become a cancer statistic. I would prefer that everyone's only interest in the Atezo/Cobi CRC trial be only from an investment perspective.
"I think that might be a little redundant unless it interrupts a compensatory feedback loop that can over come the MET inhibition and that seems to lay in the pim protein kinase pathway from what I know."
There is some overlap with the PD1 MOA and its something I've been wondering about also. One positive though is that Cobi's effectiveness with Atezo is explained by Roche as being related to up-regulation of MHC1. Per Peter Lamb on the ASCO company presentation, Cabo has the same effect. So we'll see, perhaps as early as October. MMM has been talking about a Cabo/PD1 pivotal trial for some time. Surely he is creating that expectation based on only preclinical work. From a share price perspective it doesn't really matter all that much, the current rally is all about RCC, HCC and Cobi/Atezo.
"From the French article just posted..."
Its on Les Echo. It is an interview with CEO Garidel.
"they ( Ipsen ) are looking to enter Cabo into combo trials asap."
The comment about combinations was the author's, not Mssr. Garidel's, although the author's comment may have been prompted by something Garidel did say, that was not quoted. I agree that the article seems to indicate a move into Cabo/PD1, it's hard to tell if it is speculation on the part of the author or a concrete statement by Ipsen.
"This probably happens more than we realize."
See "Arbitration: Big Pharma, Big Player" The American Arbitration Association has a life sciences division that specializes in pharma and biotech dispute resolution.
"Seems a likely catalyst for increased M&A activity across the sector, as value-perceived assets are sure to be disputed - as in the case of Cobi...Any experience with this?"
This probably happens more than we realize. It may go unreported or unnoticed. This is the first example I've ever seen, but partnerships are so common, that it must happen fairly frequently. I mentioned Imclone's drug Erbitux. It has a tree way split with BMS, Merck and Lilly. Surely there must have been disagreements on that profit share relationship. Arbitration makes the most sense, that way the profits get split instead of squandered on legal costs.
"Is this an issue that might warrant a PR when resolved?
Or will we perhaps hear of it again at the next ER?"
I think the most you will hear is that it has been resolved or has gone to arbitration. I think they perceive it to be in their best interest to project at least a façade of good relations even if that is not the case.
From the 10K "This notice asserts claims against Genentech related to its clinical development, pricing and commercialization of COTELLIC, and cost and revenue allocations arising from COTELLIC’s commercialization in the United States. If the dispute is not resolved within thirty days of Genentech’s receipt of this notice, we intend to initiate an arbitration."
It seems to dispute every facet of the agreement including the pricing of Cotellic, the amount of the expense side that Genentech is attributing to Cotellic and the revenue split.
That's it, short interest is only updated once every two weeks. It does not tell you who is short, just the total short interest.
"Where is the best place to go to find out the number of short interest shares ?"
The next report will be after market close today. I'm going to guess a we will see a significant drop.
"If EXEL chooses to redeem bonds in cash, then is it not the case that the bondholders have their cash, no bonds, and now have to go to the market for shares to cover their short position."
That's true, but a cash redemption at the current share price would be about $400M for the total issue. Less than year ago, EXEL did a secondary at $5.40. Their financial position has improved considerably since that offering, but they are still burning cash and liquidity makes managements job considerably less complicated and gives them more options. They can do a partial redemption or a combination of cash and stock. I would like to see more than a token proportion of the redemption done in cash, but I would be surprised to see it.
"Sold my trading shares (bot @ 7.22 on 6/14/16) at 7.54. Did a little better than some Big Macs, but I have a sinking feeling of selling too soon."
That's why you keep a core position. Nice trade and congrats to everyone saw their shares appreciate today. The rally is very much intact.
"Cramer blamed the end of session weakness in the Dow on the drop in oil."
Sold the trading position at 7.37. It bothers me that even after the double pump and MF the stock wasn't able to break the 52 week high. I'm wondering whether 7.20 will hold on the downside. Core position still intact and my current intention is to leave it alone until at least ESMO.
"Don't be shocked if it gets there by Fri!"
I hope the share price performance makes you like the smartest investor in the universe. All the rest of us will be happy with whatever trickle down is left over.
"It's a benefit to everyone holding common (including the BOD and leadership) if they can figure out a way to convert with cash prior selling the company, as one must assume the sale would be at a premium higher than the current valuation."
The face value of the debt is $287.5 M. The cash cost to retire that debt if the share price stays steady at $7.40 would be about $400 M. That's probably a bit out of reach. If we're exploring best case scenarios, how about this. EXEL is sitting on a $3.5B offer. They announce the bond redemption on the 15th of Aug. Borrow $200 M from the acquiring company, pay the bonds in cash. The remaining $3.3 B is spread over 54 M fewer shares. The per share works out to about $13.