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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

erniewerner 345 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 hours ago Member since: Jan 18, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Brexit Open

    by morgiefl00 Jun 23, 2016 11:36 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner 9 hours ago Flag

    "Congrats to anyone who bought the 275,000 shares $7.30 each, they all just made $110,000 in 15 minutes..

    How about my 90 shares at $7.20? I got a partial fill in the pre-market. That should be at least 7 or 8 more BIG Mac meals. I guess the next question is what do the Germans do? You have to wonder about the future of an organization with France as one of its two pillars of stability.

  • Reply to

    Brexit Open

    by morgiefl00 Jun 23, 2016 11:36 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner 16 hours ago Flag

    "The fear is that they are the first domino which will trigger other countries to follow suit and eventually lead to the collapse of the entire EU."

    I'm having a tough time trying to figure out exactly how this will impact EXEL's business prospects. Perhaps a chain of events leading to governmental reimbursement agencies seeking lower drug prices due to a generally poor economic environment. That's the best I can come up with. I can make a direct connection to how this effects EXEL share price. It's still a supply/demand market with margin calls and all that entails. Drug companies may be somewhat recession proof, but their shares are not. Tried to pick some up in the pre-market, but there wasn't enough volume to support my bid.

  • Reply to

    Volume

    by michael-poggi Jun 23, 2016 1:56 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 23, 2016 4:41 PM Flag

    "tight trading range also...no more room for big macs :)..."

    Getting tougher and riskier to scalp a few hundred. Earlier this week I did make a buy at 7.65. I was getting ready to take a profit and decided to fold them into the core position instead. I'm pretty sure I see how ESMO is going to play out, but past that it gets a bit foggy. Starting on Jul 1 we can start counting down the days it closes above $6.91. Rather remarkable that they got a sustained rally to carry the share price above the 130% threshold at just the right time to convert the debt. It does nag at me just a bit that things aren't usually this easy. We'll see.

  • Reply to

    hostile takeover?

    by godhairyballs Jun 22, 2016 2:58 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 23, 2016 11:02 AM Flag

    "I suppose it might be the suitor that goes public with their offer amount if the buyer thought the price more than fair - but what if the board were holding out for a grand slam when majority investors would be happy with a 2-run homer? How would we know about any offers?"

    I'm sure someone will argue about fiduciary responsibility and withholding material information. Set those arguments aside, here is what happens in the real world. Company A makes an offer for company B. Company B rejects the offer as inadequate. If Company A thinks they can go around the board and management of B, they will make the offer public. They can do a public tender to try to gain control or approach the shareholders to exert pressure on the reluctant management. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. Sometimes company B will seek a White Knight with a better offer. Once the whole thing goes public, there is a good chance something will happen. If an offer is made and rejected, and the suitor does not go public, we the shareholders will never find out anything happened.

  • Reply to

    OT--All you folks over 50 should consider this

    by erniewerner Jun 20, 2016 7:36 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 20, 2016 7:58 PM Flag

    "ASCO 2016 Update: Checkpoint Immunotherapy Advances in Solid Cancers"

    "This combination also improved 6-month overall survival, from 1% in patients treated with the standard of care, to 72%."

    That looks like a typo to me. If I recall, regorafenib has about a 6 1/2 month mOS.

  • "USPSTF Issues New Colorectal Cancer Screening Guidelines"

    Don't become a cancer statistic. I would prefer that everyone's only interest in the Atezo/Cobi CRC trial be only from an investment perspective.

  • Reply to

    EMEA/CHMP meeting next week

    by slumdawg2011 Jun 17, 2016 12:11 AM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 20, 2016 10:36 AM Flag

    Surely he is NOT creating that expectation based on only preclinical work.

  • Reply to

    EMEA/CHMP meeting next week

    by slumdawg2011 Jun 17, 2016 12:11 AM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 20, 2016 10:36 AM Flag

    "I think that might be a little redundant unless it interrupts a compensatory feedback loop that can over come the MET inhibition and that seems to lay in the pim protein kinase pathway from what I know."

    There is some overlap with the PD1 MOA and its something I've been wondering about also. One positive though is that Cobi's effectiveness with Atezo is explained by Roche as being related to up-regulation of MHC1. Per Peter Lamb on the ASCO company presentation, Cabo has the same effect. So we'll see, perhaps as early as October. MMM has been talking about a Cabo/PD1 pivotal trial for some time. Surely he is creating that expectation based on only preclinical work. From a share price perspective it doesn't really matter all that much, the current rally is all about RCC, HCC and Cobi/Atezo.

  • Reply to

    EMEA/CHMP meeting next week

    by slumdawg2011 Jun 17, 2016 12:11 AM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 20, 2016 9:11 AM Flag

    "From the French article just posted..."

    Its on Les Echo. It is an interview with CEO Garidel.

    "they ( Ipsen ) are looking to enter Cabo into combo trials asap."

    The comment about combinations was the author's, not Mssr. Garidel's, although the author's comment may have been prompted by something Garidel did say, that was not quoted. I agree that the article seems to indicate a move into Cabo/PD1, it's hard to tell if it is speculation on the part of the author or a concrete statement by Ipsen.

  • Reply to

    EXEL dispute w Genentech over Cobi

    by wilderguide Jun 19, 2016 10:48 AM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 19, 2016 1:36 PM Flag

    "This probably happens more than we realize."

    See "Arbitration: Big Pharma, Big Player" The American Arbitration Association has a life sciences division that specializes in pharma and biotech dispute resolution.

  • Reply to

    EXEL dispute w Genentech over Cobi

    by wilderguide Jun 19, 2016 10:48 AM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 19, 2016 12:53 PM Flag

    "Seems a likely catalyst for increased M&A activity across the sector, as value-perceived assets are sure to be disputed - as in the case of Cobi...Any experience with this?"

    This probably happens more than we realize. It may go unreported or unnoticed. This is the first example I've ever seen, but partnerships are so common, that it must happen fairly frequently. I mentioned Imclone's drug Erbitux. It has a tree way split with BMS, Merck and Lilly. Surely there must have been disagreements on that profit share relationship. Arbitration makes the most sense, that way the profits get split instead of squandered on legal costs.

  • Reply to

    EXEL dispute w Genentech over Cobi

    by wilderguide Jun 19, 2016 10:48 AM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 19, 2016 12:01 PM Flag

    "Is this an issue that might warrant a PR when resolved?
    Or will we perhaps hear of it again at the next ER?"

    I think the most you will hear is that it has been resolved or has gone to arbitration. I think they perceive it to be in their best interest to project at least a façade of good relations even if that is not the case.

    From the 10K "This notice asserts claims against Genentech related to its clinical development, pricing and commercialization of COTELLIC, and cost and revenue allocations arising from COTELLIC’s commercialization in the United States. If the dispute is not resolved within thirty days of Genentech’s receipt of this notice, we intend to initiate an arbitration."

    It seems to dispute every facet of the agreement including the pricing of Cotellic, the amount of the expense side that Genentech is attributing to Cotellic and the revenue split.

  • erniewerner erniewerner Jun 17, 2016 9:43 AM Flag

    That's it, short interest is only updated once every two weeks. It does not tell you who is short, just the total short interest.

  • erniewerner erniewerner Jun 17, 2016 8:26 AM Flag

    "Where is the best place to go to find out the number of short interest shares ?"

    The next report will be after market close today. I'm going to guess a we will see a significant drop.

  • erniewerner erniewerner Jun 17, 2016 8:17 AM Flag

    "If EXEL chooses to redeem bonds in cash, then is it not the case that the bondholders have their cash, no bonds, and now have to go to the market for shares to cover their short position."

    That's true, but a cash redemption at the current share price would be about $400M for the total issue. Less than year ago, EXEL did a secondary at $5.40. Their financial position has improved considerably since that offering, but they are still burning cash and liquidity makes managements job considerably less complicated and gives them more options. They can do a partial redemption or a combination of cash and stock. I would like to see more than a token proportion of the redemption done in cash, but I would be surprised to see it.

  • Reply to

    We got head faked, I thought today was our day!

    by rrpoker16 Jun 15, 2016 4:13 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 16, 2016 6:19 PM Flag

    "Sold my trading shares (bot @ 7.22 on 6/14/16) at 7.54. Did a little better than some Big Macs, but I have a sinking feeling of selling too soon."

    That's why you keep a core position. Nice trade and congrats to everyone saw their shares appreciate today. The rally is very much intact.

  • Reply to

    We got head faked, I thought today was our day!

    by rrpoker16 Jun 15, 2016 4:13 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 16, 2016 9:46 AM Flag

    "Cramer blamed the end of session weakness in the Dow on the drop in oil."

    Sold the trading position at 7.37. It bothers me that even after the double pump and MF the stock wasn't able to break the 52 week high. I'm wondering whether 7.20 will hold on the downside. Core position still intact and my current intention is to leave it alone until at least ESMO.

  • Reply to

    That 20 day countdown..

    by ulingt Jun 12, 2016 1:04 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 15, 2016 7:15 PM Flag

    "Don't be shocked if it gets there by Fri!"

    I hope the share price performance makes you like the smartest investor in the universe. All the rest of us will be happy with whatever trickle down is left over.

  • Reply to

    That 20 day countdown..

    by ulingt Jun 12, 2016 1:04 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 15, 2016 7:08 PM Flag

    "It's a benefit to everyone holding common (including the BOD and leadership) if they can figure out a way to convert with cash prior selling the company, as one must assume the sale would be at a premium higher than the current valuation."

    The face value of the debt is $287.5 M. The cash cost to retire that debt if the share price stays steady at $7.40 would be about $400 M. That's probably a bit out of reach. If we're exploring best case scenarios, how about this. EXEL is sitting on a $3.5B offer. They announce the bond redemption on the 15th of Aug. Borrow $200 M from the acquiring company, pay the bonds in cash. The remaining $3.3 B is spread over 54 M fewer shares. The per share works out to about $13.

  • Reply to

    That 20 day countdown..

    by ulingt Jun 12, 2016 1:04 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 15, 2016 6:48 PM Flag

    Thumb's up Duck. I agree with everything you said. I'm not a fan of more dilution either and a mix of cash and stock makes sense. From the company's perspective, they know a few things that feed into this decision that we can only guess at. Here's a list:

    They have approximate dates for the Celestial interims and the final analysis.

    They know the exact CaboSun results and are likely already negotiating with FDA to see if they will entertain a supplemental NDA for frontline and any requirements for protocol changes and data treatment.

    They know how the Apolo trial is proceeding and whether that data set merits an immediate jump into a ph3 in UTC or perhaps expansion cohorts into other indications (NSCLC).

    They know how the Cabometyx launch is proceeding

    They know how the Japan discussions are going.

    They know if there have been any offers or feelers for M&A discussion.

    So I guess my point is that they have a feel for what the future capital requirements are likely to be and also how much is coming in. Remember a $15 buyout is worth about a quarter billion to the holders of company awarded options. That has to be a powerful incentive.

EXEL
7.69-0.16(-2.04%)Jun 24 4:00 PMEDT