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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

erniewerner 343 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 24, 2016 2:53 PM Member since: Jan 18, 2000
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  • Reply to

    As the share price approaches $6.91

    by erniewerner May 31, 2016 10:29 AM
    erniewerner erniewerner May 31, 2016 12:16 PM Flag

    "So you are right about the amount of outstanding shares but the shorted convertible shares are already being traded so those would not dilute."

    Not everyone understands, so let me explain. Company XYX has 1000 company issued shares outstanding and owned by various investors. Acme hedge fund shorts 100 shares. To do so they borrow John Smith's 100 shares and sell them to Mary Brown. XYZ still only has 1000 shares outstanding, but thanks to Acme, there are investors who own a total of 1100 shares. John still owns his 100 shares, but Acme borrowed them and sold them to Mary, who now also owns 100 shares. So even though the official share count is 1000, there are currently 1100 shares available for trade.

    So for EXEL, post conversion, the share count will go up by 54 million, but the number of shares available for trade will go up by a lesser number, based on how many of the bondholders use those shares to close out a short position.

  • Reply to

    As the share price approaches $6.91

    by erniewerner May 31, 2016 10:29 AM
    erniewerner erniewerner May 31, 2016 12:00 PM Flag

    "Ernie, thanks for the info. If you dont mind me asking how do you view this current run?"

    I would normally sell into a nice rally like we are seeing today, but I have not done so. I see a clean run to $6.90. From there I want to see how the stock moves. I see my position as more of a core that I want to hold onto and I probably will not trade until we see a reasonable pullback of some kind. The fundamentals are all very positive, but there is too much optimism surrounding the stock, so it could bounce back down again just to frustrate the faithful. So I'm jut waiting to see where it goes and ready to buy more on a correction.

    $5.31 is an important level as it is the conversion price. $5.40 was the most recent secondary. I see those as permanently in the rearview mirror unless there is a serious setback of some kind. That leaves $6.91 and perhaps $8 at which level a secondary was consummated prior to the convert deal. I think the limiting factor on share price will just be the overall market cap as compared to projected revenue. Celestial has to play into that scenario. The end game is still an eventual sale of the company.

  • Reply to

    Apolo states triplet well tolerated

    by wildbiftek May 31, 2016 10:15 AM
    erniewerner erniewerner May 31, 2016 10:59 AM Flag

    "On twitter, at "apolo_andrea" is stating that the triplet of Cabo+Nivo+Ipi is well tolerated. This bodes well for a shock and awe firstline offensive in firstline RCC and perhaps other tumors types."

    Her initial focus is Urothelial Cancer. From an investor's viewpoint, I'm not sure I want to see Cabo/Nivo/Ipi in RCC. The upfront separate retail price of the combination is staggering. I think it likely, Cabo would have to be offered at a deep discount. As I project things out in RCC, I think it likely, Cabo will initially own the 2nd/3rd line space, eventually perhaps a chunk of frontline dollars and even further out settle in as the 2nd line SOC, importantly, all as monotherapy. As counterintuitive as it may sound, the revenue as monotherapy may be greater than moving up the treatment algorithm as part of an effective combination treatment.

    Cabo currently has no piece of UC, so in that setting being a part of a successful combination would make sense and I could see the logic in a pivotal trial with cost sharing with BMY and shared discount pricing strategy agreed to beforehand.

    From a medical viewpoint, the triplet in RCC might show great promise. If that is the circumstance, then the ph 3 funding may need to come from a source other than BMY and EXEL.

  • "....will be subject to redemption at our option, in whole or in part, on or after August 15, 2016, but only if the last reported sale price of our common stock for 20 or more trading days in a period of 30 consecutive trading days ending on the trading day prior to the date we provide the notice of redemption to holders exceeds 130% of the conversion price in effect on each such trading day...."

    The first opportunity for the company to call the converts early will be at the end of the 3rd Q, ie Sep 30. $6.91 is the 130% threshold that needs to be maintained as defined above from the convert prospectus. Should this occur, it will likely be a non-cash transaction. The immediate effect would be the retirement of $287.5 million in debt and the issuance of 54 million new shares of EXEL common stock. The current number of outstanding shares is 228 million, so it would be a dilution factor of 28%. As I type the current sp is $6.57 giving EXEL a market cap of $1.5 B. Let's assume the conversion occurs in October and the share price is $7. EXEL's market cap would be about $2.0B wth 282 million shares outstanding and a very manageable debt level considerably less than cash on hand.

    I am not predicting this will happen, but it certainly is a plausible outcome at some point in 2016 or 2017.

  • erniewerner by erniewerner May 31, 2016 7:25 AM Flag

    I have been taking out the trash on this and other message boards for years. I get it. Someone said something that really makes you angry. You want to publicly take them to the woodshed. Here's the thing. You have to remember that this is a diverse group reading the message board. You have to find a way to publicly humiliate that "bad actor" without making yourself a target. If the best you can do is place that member in a regional area, a profession, a political party, an ethnicity, etc., that isn't going to cut it. Your doing surgery with a lawn mower instead of a scalpel. Your going to p.o. more people than the one individual you want to indict and turn the mb into a tit for tat battle ground that undermines the usefulness of the venue in general. Find some less than endearing trait to criticize that everyone, or many can agree on without alienating others. Including quotes or examples will help your cause. If you can't do that, then perhaps you should reexamine the justification for your initial anger.

    Every now and then someone needs a bit of comeuppance. But let's not paint with so broad a brush next time. When you critique, remember that what you say may say more about yourself than your target.

  • Reply to

    Nivolumab past patient progression in RCC

    by wildbiftek May 27, 2016 9:17 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner May 27, 2016 11:01 PM Flag

    "I doubt insurance will cover Nivolumab post progression for now though."

    Calling progression is a judgment call by the oncologist. I'm speculating here, but I would suspect that if a patient and the oncologist both want to continue with Nivo, they can make it happen. It hasn't been uncommon for patients in the various PD1 trials to progress and then have a delayed response after going off therapy. See "Pseudoprogression and Immune-Related Response in Solid Tumors."

    There is definitely a need for better predictive markers like mismatch repair proficiency and also for better post treatment diagnostics to better determine when treatment should stop in favor of a different approach. Interesting post.

  • erniewerner erniewerner May 27, 2016 5:12 PM Flag

    "$1B in PAR is still an optimistic speculation at this point."

    Duck I'm pleasantly surprised. Is that a hint of stern objectivity? I just read the article too. I don't see $1B unless the CaboSun data is worthy of standalone filing and Celestial also hits. Both of those are certainly in the realm of reasonable possibility, but we have to wait and see. I keep looking for the proverbial fly in the ointment and it is getting more difficult to make a negative argument. Kind of spooky with even the regular trolls keeping a low profile.

  • Reply to

    Added more at 6.28

    by erniewerner May 27, 2016 9:35 AM
    erniewerner erniewerner May 27, 2016 4:19 PM Flag

    "..that's probably one of the reasons she left.."

    Yes, I am divorced and as she was just as truth impaired as yourself, I am much happier for it. I don't have anything to hide Salty. No judgements, no DUI's, not much debt, big house. Pretty boring really.

  • Reply to

    Added more at 6.28

    by erniewerner May 27, 2016 9:35 AM
    erniewerner erniewerner May 27, 2016 4:03 PM Flag

    "Hard to build a core position if you sell every time it advances a few cents above your purchased price?"

    Settled for a sale at $6.35 at the close, but hung onto 500 that I bought at 6.28. It netted out to where the cost of these shares was $5.88. If I offered to well you shares for $5.88 would you take me up on it?

  • Reply to

    Added more at 6.28

    by erniewerner May 27, 2016 9:35 AM
    erniewerner erniewerner May 27, 2016 2:16 PM Flag

    "Hard to build a core position if you sell every time it advances a few cents above your purchased price?"

    I have a substantial core position and I've been adding to it almost daily with my daytrading. I sell a few less shares than I buy. Some posters here are strictly buy and hold and some are traders. I'm both.

  • erniewerner by erniewerner May 27, 2016 2:00 PM Flag

    "Dr. Heimlich, 96, saves choking woman with namesake maneuver"

    “I sort of felt wonderful about it, just having saved that girl,” Heimlich said.

    Dr. Henry Heimlich invented his eponymous maneuver in the 1970's, but until recently had never had the opportunity to use it himself in an actual choking situation. The "girl" the frisky 96 year old saved was an 87 year old fellow resident of his senior living center. Way to stay relevant Dr. Heimlich!

  • Reply to

    Added more at 6.28

    by erniewerner May 27, 2016 9:35 AM
    erniewerner erniewerner May 27, 2016 11:36 AM Flag

    "Considering you bought some trading shares today, at what price will you be selling?"

    If it gets to the high 5.30's I'll set some go. If we get to the low 5.20's, I'll pick some more up. It looks like it wants to trade sideways for a while, but who knows.

  • erniewerner erniewerner May 27, 2016 11:09 AM Flag

    "Unlike say-on-pay votes, which typically give shareholders a chance to weigh in annually on executive compensation, advisory votes on golden parachutes aren’t required until just before investors vote on a takeover. And they can only vote against the payments by voting down the deal, and that almost never happens."

    Wall Street Journal Dec 30, 2013

  • Reply to

    Added more at 6.28

    by erniewerner May 27, 2016 9:35 AM
    erniewerner erniewerner May 27, 2016 10:48 AM Flag

    "What ever happened to sell early in the day, buy late ?"

    That worked for a while, but I think once a pattern gets noticed it gets exploited and evaporates. I like trading this stock because I know the fundamental underpinnings are here to bail me out if I get overextended. I'm confident there will be future news to push it higher. Probably a good time to recap what's coming down the road.

    ASCO update on Atezo/Cobi

    June 5 investor presentation

    June/July EMA approval and milestones

    Early Aug 2nd quarter conf call with sales updates

    Oct probable presentation of CaboSun data

    Oct 3rd Q CC with more sales updates

    Late 2016/early 2017 First interim on Celestial with recommendation to continue to next analysis

    The news flow will not be as dense as it was last summer, but it is still lining up positively. The Celestial first interim will not be a positive announcement, but it will signal the countdown to the 2nd interim and the final analysis. There is also room for other positive developments like Cabo/Nivo data, new trials for Cabo and/or Cobi, and a Japanese partnership.

  • erniewerner by erniewerner May 27, 2016 9:35 AM Flag

    Continuing to increase my core position, but I will also continue trading to reduce my basis.

  • erniewerner erniewerner May 27, 2016 9:11 AM Flag

    "Exelixis would be required to call a separate shareholder vote to approve golden parachutes in the case of M&A. Companies usually get the votes."

    I've been through several of these and I don't recall there being a separate vote on the golden parachute issue. Usually those provisions are side deals between the acquirer and the specific individuals or are included in the merger agreement itself with a single up/down vote. In some cases the vote itself is almost irrelevant. When BMY bought MEDX, there was a provision to double the outstanding share total with all the additional shares pledged to vote in favor of the merger.

  • Reply to

    Wilder, where are you?

    by joeflow77 May 25, 2016 10:58 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner May 27, 2016 8:32 AM Flag

    "Now kindly, GFY..."

    Being ill-tempered and crotchety is a condition often associated with old age. I guess its part of dealing with slipping into irrelevance. That said, truth impairment isn't usually seen as a geriatric affliction, it is more likely the continuation of a lifelong pattern of hypocrisy and prevarication.

  • Reply to

    Wilder, where are you?

    by joeflow77 May 25, 2016 10:58 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner May 27, 2016 7:53 AM Flag

    "Any further postings of such will be considered attempted stock manipulation & dealt with accordingly. Thank you."

    Let me give you a little more actionable material. You Salty are a contemptible liar. If you would like to add libel to your list of actionable offenses I would be happy to provide my contact information. Last time I checked, truth was an absolute defense.

  • Reply to

    Wilder, where are you?

    by joeflow77 May 25, 2016 10:58 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner May 26, 2016 1:10 PM Flag

    "Our now single convert hasn't been very active for almost a month..."

    I think your saying that trading volume of trading of the convert bonds has been low. Do I have this right? Or are you alluding to some kind of arbitrage involving the bonds?

    "Retail trading has increased in the last two weeks as seen on L II."

    I sold 5k today @ 5.35 and it took 22 transactions of mostly 100 share blocks to fill the order. Small retail interest is very high.

    "..totally sponsored trails, but with cash from Ispen, will sponsors back as many $.."

    What is a totally sponsored trial? What sponsors are you alluding to? Drug companies? Venture capital?

    "Last year, the CEO of R/G said that Exelixis is a valued research partner, but between the lines, I interrupted no buyout from them."

    Who is R/G?

    "I think there's a possibly that Exelixis may set up shop again in Massachusetts."

    Incorporate the company in Mass or physically move the HG to Mass?

  • Reply to

    I have a tip for whoever is interested

    by biotechblood May 26, 2016 6:35 AM
    erniewerner erniewerner May 26, 2016 11:44 AM Flag

    "Which do you think has the potential for a bigger update market mover Asco or the company CC to investors after they present?"

    It will not be a conference call, it will be a presentation that will have KOL's reviewing the data and company officers presenting future plans. The only potential needle mover in the ASCO presentations I see is the Atezo/Cobi update to the abstract, so in my mind, the investor presentation on the 5th is very important.

    "As far as bucking the trend, it seems like Exel is a possibility for that."

    That's what I'm betting on. The mood on the mb has me a bit worried, it's just a bit too confident. The real potential mover is the CaboSun data. Are they blowing smoke or do they actually have what they seem to be saying they have? Hoping for some more hints on the 5th.

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