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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

erniewerner 343 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 24, 2016 2:53 PM Member since: Jan 18, 2000
  • Reply to

    Not much of a bounce off 6.92

    by erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 12:15 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 9, 2016 1:43 PM Flag

    "He's a great contrarian indicator"

    Right back at you Salty. You are a contrarian indicator of sorts for me also. I see you creating narratives to fit your desires, cyberstalking, sniping from behind an anonymous ID, erasing your past posts to cover up the truth and letting your paranoia override whatever common sense remains. You are an excellent role model for how "not to."

  • Reply to

    Not much of a bounce off 6.92

    by erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 12:15 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 9, 2016 12:21 PM Flag

    "I can see another pop coming every you're selling yours for a big Mac ;)"

    I've had a few Big Mac trades, but this one was pretty good. My most recent purchase was at $7.07 and the two prior were in the same neighborhood, 7.11 and 7.13 I think. It's a matter of perspective. I don't measure by the best possible case, which would be selling near the high for the day. I'm thankful and pleased for the profit I realized rather than disappointed I didn't hold out for more.

  • Reply to

    Not much of a bounce off 6.92

    by erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 12:15 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 9, 2016 11:34 AM Flag

    "Hey Erni, I wonder which strategy is more successful over time, tryin to pick a bottom with trading shares or adding on a breakout?"

    I don't have a name for what I do. My best trades have come based on news events. Call it conceit or ego, but I think my opinion on what a news event is worth in terms share price is better than the markets valuation and I think I see it sooner. It's why I've often sold into announcements that are totally foreseeable events and why I built a core position back up pre-ASCO based on Cotezo and CaboSun. The daytrading outside the core position started out as just for fun, but it has proven to be very profitable. I know it irks a certain segment of the readership to no end and I suppose that is also part of the appeal.

  • Reply to

    Not much of a bounce off 6.92

    by erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 12:15 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 9, 2016 10:39 AM Flag

    "What's stronger the resistance or golden cross?? Lol"

    Great question for the short term. Sold the rest of my trading position @ 7.29, still holding the core. I think I'll get to restock on trading shares today. We'll see.

  • Reply to

    Not much of a bounce off 6.92

    by erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 12:15 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 9, 2016 9:57 AM Flag

    "If this is the correction, it sure was a small window of opportunity. Hey, if it checks a box for the TA guys and makes a run at another 52 week high permissible, I'm all for it."

    New 52 week high. Looking to the technicians here for an update. I know this is a significant event technically, but I would appreciate a bit more in depth analysis beyond my superficial opinion.

  • Reply to

    The Rock Stars who developed Cabo and Cobi

    by ksjcook Jun 8, 2016 9:06 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 9, 2016 8:33 AM Flag

    "So from a valuation perspective, other than XL888, do you think all of EXEL's cards are on the table?"

    Pretty much. CS 3150 is worth a mention, but it is relatively early in development and likely has a low royalty rate on it. There are a few other partnered programs still alive, but nothing that is likely to move the needle.

  • Reply to

    No politics!

    by erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 5:53 AM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 9, 2016 8:12 AM Flag

    "So where is your post about no weapons related discussions?"

    Doesn't hardly seem fair does it? Sorry your feelings got hurt. It's a judgment call. I have a finite amount of influence and if I try to use it too often by squashing every bit of off topic jabber then I become a problem also.

  • erniewerner erniewerner Jun 9, 2016 12:19 AM Flag

    "I was under the impression shorting a stock is a relatively short-term proposition (days to weeks) given reports on short positions are usually stated as "days to cover"."

    Days to cover is a measure of the total size of the short position relative to the daily trading volume of the stock. Take EXEL for example. The average volume is about 5 million shares and the total number of shorted shares is about 45 million. Days to cover would be 45/5 or 9. If the average daily volume was solely composed of short covering, how many days would it take to close out the short postion?

    You can stay short for as long as you want. It's not without risk. When you buy a stock, 100% of the purchase price is at risk. Because there is no limit to how high a stock can rise, there is also no limit to the theoretical loss a short position can suffer. That's one of the reasons short positions are often hedged to limit risk. If you have a losing short position in an account and do not have assets on deposit sufficient to cover the loss, brokerages will close out a position without your permission.

  • Reply to

    The Rock Stars who developed Cabo and Cobi

    by ksjcook Jun 8, 2016 9:06 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 10:50 PM Flag

    "Anyone know who the (dude or dudet) is that discover these drugs and if they, or their teams, are sill with EXEL?"

    When BMY returned XL184 (Cabo) to EXEL, they transitioned from being a drug discovery company to a drug development company. They undertook completing the clinical program for Cabo, disposed of the non core assets and furloughed the entire R&D staff, roughly 200 employees. So unless MMM or Peter Lamb were the actual discovery scientists, I don't think the responsible parties are there to accept the credit any longer.

  • erniewerner erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 10:42 PM Flag

    "Can you even cover a short position with borrowed shares?"

    The act of selling short involves selling something you don't own with the intent of purchasing it later at a lower price. It's not hard to see the potential for abuse. If a shorter wanted to drive down the price of shares he could just keep piling on and selling more and more. One scam involved death spiral financing. A viable company would take out a loan with repayment scheduled in shares of stock. The lender would drive down the share price with naked shorting and then get all those shares back at a discounted price in the form of debt repayment. The shorting was done from offshore unnamed accounts. SEC has closed a few loopholes to prevent this particular scam.

    I used the term naked shorting. Let me explain. Current SEC regulations require that the short actually borrow existing registered shares from someone else before or shortly after the transaction is conducted. A short without borrowed shares is a naked short and is prohibited by SEC regulations. For a period market makers were exempted from the regulation, but it was expanded to remove all exceptions. Through error, carelessness, or malfeasance it still occasionally occurs, and those occurrences are tracked and reported as "failure to deliver" events.

    So the borrowing occurs at the time of the initial short sale. Brokerages literally have to keep track of shares available to short and they charge the shorting party interest for the duration that the short position exists. If I wanted to short $10,000 of XYZ company, Fidelity would notify me of the interest rate to borrow those shares before I could complete the transaction.

    Fidelity has what they call a direct lending program. I make the positions in my account available for lending to shorts and Fidelity splits the interest they charge with me. For a while my EXEL shares were essentially paying me a 3% dividend.

  • Reply to

    Exelixis Inc. Setting New Standard of Care

    by saltydog711 Jun 8, 2016 7:45 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 8:08 PM Flag

    "Now they "OWN" shares as well."

    They've actually owned them for several years. The omission of ownership in that article may have been an oversight or perhaps they were out of the stock for a while.

  • Reply to

    New high is lurking

    by godhairyballs Jun 8, 2016 2:58 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 4:02 PM Flag

    "Today trading action confirmed convert bond will be gone by the end of this month."

    The bonds cannot be called until the end of the 3rd quarter.

  • Reply to

    $12 is fair but $20 is wanted ...

    by godhairyballs May 10, 2016 10:35 AM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 2:45 PM Flag

    Good job levitating there Henriette. Let 1/2 the trading shares go at 7.23.

  • Reply to

    A little Profit Taking

    by itssofine2 Jun 7, 2016 10:14 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 12:41 PM Flag

    "That might have a minor short term effect but there is no way drug companies are going to allow major amounts of their drugs to be shipped to Canada at lower cost and then be resold to the US market."

    Vin the notion was not one I thought of myself, it's already being discussed in Congress. My opinion is that it probably will not happen, but I am certain the idea will be floated again and used as threat to help drive a compromise. I already get weekly calls from Canadian Pharmacy and Sven and Lars' accents have a suspiciously Bengal ring to them.

  • Reply to

    A little Profit Taking

    by itssofine2 Jun 7, 2016 10:14 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 12:30 PM Flag

    ""my point was I wasn't going to continue the line of discussion beyond that final post..."

    I get it. You had good intentions and you were going to let it die right? How likely is it that after gratuitously insulting roughly half of the readership your's would be the last word on the subject? Then tell me that you wouldn't decide to jump back in again because someone else said something outrageous. It's not a difficult concept to grasp. We are mostly opinionated type A personalities with some really great ideas to share, but lets acknowledge this isn't the venue when those ideas have political overtones.

  • I drove down to buy my son and his roommate breakfast so I was on the road this morning. I pulled over for the open and bought some @ 7.07. I checked again at 9:45 and saw it in the 6.90's. I put in an order @ 6.95 and just just missed a fill. I got home and saw that someone had dumped 100K on the market and the sp was in the 6.90's for about 4 minutes. If this is the correction, it sure was a small window of opportunity. Hey, if it checks a box for the TA guys and makes a run at another 52 week high permissible, I'm all for it.

    As per Franca I guess next opportunity for a positive CHMP recommendation is the June 20-23 meeting.

  • erniewerner erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 12:02 PM Flag

    "The question is, how big now, is it all or the majority hedged or not. If not, they could get squeezed, but you are saying the convertibles hang over this, making that unlikely."

    To the first point. "Is the majority hedged..."

    We don't know. Institutions are required to quarterly report their holdings and this includes common stock and bonds. If one were to check the filings, one would see that the current largest holder of the bonds is a JPM hedge fund and the largest holder of the common is Fidelity. A gaping hole in the reporting system is that institutions are not required to report their short holdings. So again, we don't know.

    "IF the convertible holders want to ride this, they will not want to be short. So either way, if you see a continuing stream of good news, and you see convertible holders wanting to make money, what exactly would they do if now short/hedged?"

    The beauty of a hedged position is that you lock in a small gain with little to no risk. Hedge funds are called HEDGE funds for a reason. You are absolutely correct, IF the HF's want to assume the market risk in order to fully realize the anticipated appreciation of the underlying security, they can close out the short and keep the bond. If the guy at High Bridge (the JPM HF) were to do this, I suspect he would get a call from his boss asking him #$%$ are you doing? We are a HF, not a mutual fund!

  • erniewerner erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 11:13 AM Flag

    "And short position ripe for huge squeeze."

    Okay Eric, here are a few facts for you. First, if the folks here seem a bit sensitive about short squeeze predictions, you have to cut them some slack. The predictions have come daily since at least 2008 when I started posting and that oft promised, yet rarely seen short squeeze hasn't materialized. The facts I promised. Short squeezes are supply demand events only obliquely related to the fundamental prospects of the underlying security. The present supply demand situation for available shares to short is not tight. Fidelity lists 11+M shares available and is only charging a 1/2 % carrying charge. I have seen it as high as 6%. When the bonds are converted, 54 million treasury shares will be issued to the holders. I have no idea how many of those shares will be used to close out existing short positions, but I suspect it is a substantial percentage. Those short positions hedged by bonds are essentially squeeze proof.

  • erniewerner by erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 5:53 AM Flag

    Hey folks, keep it a politics free zone. No subtle insults, no naming candidates. As amazing as it seems, half the stupid people reading this mb are going to vote for the other inferior candidate. Accept it, compartmentalize it, and keep it out of your posts.

  • Reply to

    A little Profit Taking

    by itssofine2 Jun 7, 2016 10:14 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 5:46 AM Flag

    "I'm not getting into politics with you, believe what you wish, those living on Fantasy Island always do."

    I'll throw the BS flag. Your whole post has political overtones. Either of the candidates will have to deal with spiraling healthcare costs. As far as cutting the cost of drugs, you already have a Canadian or European model to follow. You can argue all day about whether it is good or bad or fair or not fair, but negotiated drug costs are coming. A quick fix is to simply allow imported drugs. Again, not without problems, but doable.

EXEL
7.69-0.16(-2.04%)Jun 24 4:00 PMEDT