looks to me like they setting up for a chip shot to 52 week high-this week or next week. add PB's daily numbers (if you bother to check) are higher than I've seen in many moons. I kinda wish gas would pull back but I've been saying that for a while.
thanks for posting this.....that is one carefully worded blurb. it is contrary to some of the current analyst opinions on bentek and platts. so who do we believe? private analysts or the govt. If I was short I'd read that and say cha ching. one thing I'd point out is that if most if this is true then why didnt we blow away 3.9tcf this fall. And to add we could have possibly the largest net withdrawls for a heating season in over 5 years. Makes everything so murky.
I thought I posted to this but dont see it. Massachusetts needs more pipeline. more of an if than a when. Also at this price its still cheaper than 1mmbtu of fueloil. avg homeowner needs to burn 10g of fuel oil to get to that level. so thats roughly 32 bucks vs 18 at the wholesale level. most of the country is around 10 bucks for that much gas right now
+1, so far its the opposite effect of sandy and you can see that in gas price. I expect remaining dec withdrawls to set some historical seasonal recoords. milepost wise we could pass under 3tcf way earlier than normal.
In april GS put out a paper essentially warning producers. if you look at the price movement since then I'd say they listened. with oil you got opec. nat gas is way less organized but its showing some improvements but its a lot like F troop.
if you were a gas producer what would you do....open them up to make more gas and less money or less gas and sell for higher prices and make more money. no one has a gun at them to make sure consumers win.
great guess. goodluck with the dgaz. I wouldnt be surprised to see a hard core follow thru as they wag the dog. gas is cheap right now.
I have a little bit of dgaz still as well.....just trying to help you out - do some basic homework here. take a look at historical storage levels and the rate at which the balloon is going down. traders go nuts for this stuff. I wouldnt be surprised if GS rolls a 5.50 target soon to wag the dog.