fp,thanks let it rip. On Marcellus, I'm up there right now and its not cold enough for freeze off yet. alot of the wells are closed as they await better prices. gonna be interesting if we get better prices and we're frozen. figures. I'm a tiny minoriity partner in a small gas field up there and we have been shut for almost a year. wells are ready, and the flow is outstanding but we just waiting.
fp, very good advice, next week most of northeast gonna struggle to get above freezing so we gonna see how the new demand levels shape up.
+1, freeze offs, makes sense. Next weeks weather gonna be hard on production and thats why PB is saying a 200 is possible.
-they pull it back? let her rip?
-maybe it cools off at 4 here.
-I'm still seeing a premium on the long side .01 in gas is now .50 on dgaz or ugaz. seems very unfair to the shorts.
-we havent heard from GS but I expect that in the next week or 2 and their lofty forecast. I think they gonna say 6 target and surprise everyone if we get monster draws as we end 2013. do yourself a favor an project how much gas we gonna have in the pipes by April2014.
-the big fish that 80K contracts short is slowly bailing
is it my imagination or is there some type of premium being applied to the long side right now. gas is barely off the zero line but dgaz is suffering and ung/ugaz seem to be getting a boost. what gives?
+1 ww, if you got a little time take a closer look at the past 5 years worth of max,mins and where we crossed each year at around Jan 1. if the cold weather stays in play we could see some new testing of these levels. I still believe gas is really cheap compared to fuel oil or electricity to heat the places where we live.
bh, thanks. when no was was looking I added a bunch of 17z and 18z a ways back. couple of thoughts...I wouldnt be surprised to see gas cool down a little unless big fish want 4. as a side take a very close look at the rate of gas consumption for the last 5 years during the drawdown. My tech has done a nice analysis of this and if PBs projections hold (he's doing something right to get this close each time now) we could be in for some real fireworks. Add the banking interests are still trying to buyup the gas rights in most of the open marcellus. gotta ask yourself why? anyway back to work for me and have a happy thanksgiving
hope you all have a good one. sorry no posts from me lately-we are running flat out with conversions before the holidays so I'm back to helping these awesome folks that work for me. cant do it without them. one of my guys did a 5 year analysis of the rate of ng consumption during draw cycles and I'll give it a look over and post some thoughts. my first one minute pass it looks to me like the curve is getting steeper. you guys might want to look at this on your own so we can kick it around.
anyway enough gas talk, time for family and friends. will get back next week. happy trails.
FP the gold trade looks like its badly broken so no positions for me either way. If they cut back on QE then I think gold can slip more making it even more difficult for the miners. If you read their oct quaterlys they all talkin about this. I hope gold gets a big turn up and you make out like a bandit.
pretty sure we gonna get a new contract late sunday night. where do you think its gonna load? last month they ran it up on friday to 3.81 and new contract opened up .10 lower at 3.71. what can you add?
if you guys want to see a sector thats pretty beat up check the gold miners. I used to trade them and I feel bad for whats happened there. NEM, ABX, GDX, GDXJ, KGC, IAG crashing into 52 week lows. Maybe they are bottomed soon. if gold prices keep falling they are gonna be under a lot of pressure to be profitable.
I agree, gas trading is anything but easy and very frustrating. You have to realize these are expertly designed computer algos to induce emotion into the equation. I suspect that the big smart fish is not done selling.
nope. she was 3.81 and after roll 3.71 for the open lastmonth. I've seen them go the other way and it that happens poof right thru resistance. with the OI the hft programmers are gonna work all weekend.
I was just thinking that they whacked it real good last month fora dime and this time they may want their dime back with interest. you never know. ( at least I dont)