hope you all have a good one. sorry no posts from me lately-we are running flat out with conversions before the holidays so I'm back to helping these awesome folks that work for me. cant do it without them. one of my guys did a 5 year analysis of the rate of ng consumption during draw cycles and I'll give it a look over and post some thoughts. my first one minute pass it looks to me like the curve is getting steeper. you guys might want to look at this on your own so we can kick it around.
anyway enough gas talk, time for family and friends. will get back next week. happy trails.
here you go. not many in the past 20 years...just 7 and nothing over -250 maybe something to that 45 day arctic summer vs 90 days.
December 15, 1995 -175
December 24, 2004 -178
December 24, 1999 -180
December 17, 2010 -184
December 9, 2005 -202
December 11, 2009 -207
December 29, 2000 -208
for those of you that read my posts you'll know we are not gas trader experts we install gas heating systems and have fun trading gas related equities. providing alternate viewpoints to our posts does not affect us just gives us more to think about.
anyway we are about 32 days into a 100 day drawdown cycle. and something we are noticing is that we peaked at 3824 on nov 8. If you use PBs projections and fill in with last years figures you'll see that we could cross into 2014 at about 2986. thats -848 since the start of this years cycle. to put that into perspective thats the largest withdrawl from peak to jan 1 in the last 5 years we see. its also more than the last 2 years Nov to Jan added together.
we would appreciate others opinions and if you could verify our numbers. tia
hey zach, go check the most recent 13f for folks like GS, Chanos, Deutsche Bamk, Bank of Amerca positions on being long on gas related and get back to us with what you see. my advice is have the pepto handy.
ok will do despite PB projections, cots market timer going bullish and GS's long bet.
we went to the EIA to take a look. If we get a -250 next week thats gonna be a new record for december let alone the last 20 years of EIA records....here you go the top weeks in the past 20 years over 235....we're not at January yet. where is all this gas going?
also, gotta give you small yellow flag. just double check all the data ....we are no where near your numbers. you sure you looking at the right stuff?? spring shoulder season started off like that but as the summer went on we had lower builds than the previous year. Current storage is well behind last years numbers and its gonna be tough to get back to 3922.
I thought I posted to this but dont see it. Massachusetts needs more pipeline. more of an if than a when. Also at this price its still cheaper than 1mmbtu of fueloil. avg homeowner needs to burn 10g of fuel oil to get to that level. so thats roughly 32 bucks vs 18 at the wholesale level. most of the country is around 10 bucks for that much gas right now
+1 FP, your post pretty much summarizes analyst speak from the last gas conf I went to. the only one benefitting from the low price on gas is consumers. the same consumers have a big red bulls eye on their back.
+1 ww, if you got a little time take a closer look at the past 5 years worth of max,mins and where we crossed each year at around Jan 1. if the cold weather stays in play we could see some new testing of these levels. I still believe gas is really cheap compared to fuel oil or electricity to heat the places where we live.
looks to me like they setting up for a chip shot to 52 week high-this week or next week. add PB's daily numbers (if you bother to check) are higher than I've seen in many moons. I kinda wish gas would pull back but I've been saying that for a while.
I dont make this stuff up. heres a pretty quick read on what is going on in the northeast. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/natural-gas-gains-squeeze-family-114457326.html
hows everyone doin? we are just swamped at work with conversions so little time to trade or post. one of my folks has pointed out to me that the COTs guy has just recently posted an update to his trading system and is changing his position on gas. I checked for myself, do a search and you'll get to his spreadsheet. the COTs guy has a pretty good track record in my book.
also,I read a couple of posts here before I crash. you all talking weather we going to places where the weather is not gonna be a factor imho. gas is still dirt cheap. I gotta focus on business for the moment but will try to catch up sometime next week. happy trading.
for you math fans, if you take your spreadsheet and plug in 87 a week for the next 6 weeks we still dont get to last years peak storage. most of you know and saw my post about exceeding the 5 year avg earlier this summer and that turned out to be a non event. so I'm guessing no one cares about peak. any opinions here?