Unusual trading coming up to the FDA decision. Seems like the SEC filing spooked some people who like to play the runup and get out before the event. Not sure what surprised people. Who's shocked that the company is planning to sell some shares after the decision?
I still think there will be a mini-runup before Thursday, maybe .25 - .50, short sellers getting out before the announcement. My guess now is that it will go up to $4.50-$5 post announcement. How it fares after that depends on what the company does for commercialization. If they find a partner, watch it go higher. If they decide to market it themselves, it will go down.
I don't think it will hit $6 on runup either, but you never know...there are more and more traders who play the runup to the decision (and then get out before the decision date). My guess is that it will be about $4.50 either a day before or the day of the decision.
What do you think the price will be after approval?
I'm only saying the runup before the decision will be $4.50. I think the approval will push it to $6. If it runs past $6 before the decision, I will sell. They had that recent financing which will double the amount of shares (and they may sell even more shares to fund a sales strategy). I don't believe it's worth much more than $100 million without becoming a bit optimistically speculative with the success of their sales strategy.
I expect the stock will climb another $1 between now and FDA decision. Now is a good time to get in if you want price before more "runup traders" buy in (of course, you'd be taking some market risk this far away)...I completely expect the FDA to approve, but you may even want to get out before the FDA decision depending on how high the "event traders" take it.