If Oil price remains at 50$ per barrel for six months. Euro will rise to 1.4 within 6 months.
50$ per barrel will make most of the asian countries trade deficiet to new highs and will be around 20% to actual GDP. JAPAN will be around 7% of GDP. JAPAN , CHINA will start withdrawing their deposits held in USD.
To buy oil , Country have to get dollars so they will devaluate their currency. While US still struggling to bring down its trade deficit only countries left will be either EURO countries or middle east itself.
EURO countries will force OPEC to accept EURO as alternate currency for petro. US also will agree to prevent syncronous fall of global economy.
GOLD also will shoot to 500$ if oil stays at 50$ per barrel.
Now Euro is all time high to 1.30,
Neither US John Snow nor Alan greenspan is worried about it.
Even today AG said Twin deficit is big threat and foreigners are buying less & less USD.
As Dollar drop , whoever had bought Dollar earlier will come out and sell it. If Interest does not increase.
If AG will increase interest rate, Economy will go for Doom. It is Chicken and Egg problem.
Middle East, Russia , Malasia are actively discussing about Petro-Euro. If petro euro becomes reality , Dollar will go down to 1.5 and even more in next year.
One good thing about that will be Worl will achieve Econoic balance and will keep both the currency in check .
Should US or Europe will try to spend lavishly their currency will get punished.
Petro-Euro will be reality soon.
Buy Euro , Buy Gold.
Energy Prices will start dropping tomorrow for another total 10-12$ in one week.
VLO , SUN , TSO all stocks will be in black again.. and Shorters will cover their positions. You just see after Thanksgiving.
Happy Thanksgiving from VLO
This will be turning point for VLO. As Sour crude producer and Refiners both will stay out of speculative WTI exchange and make profit from Jan 2010 onwards.
VLO is excellent buy. It will go back to 17 and then regain 20$ in next quarter end.
You will see it soon.
Dubai debt crisis is putting pressure on all markets. Oil is going to go again to 50$.
VLO, SUNOCO , TSO will be again rise 30% in coming months.
Shorters and who predicted sell VLO at 16$ will be in tremendous pressure to even their short position. we will see jump of 1$ to 2$ in this Stock.
Dubai debt crisis unfolds. Oil will go down. Gold will shoot to 1250$.
VLO, SUN, TSO all will move higher.
Also December has been traditional month of Lower oil demand, and hence better margin for refineries.
You can see from Charts , It always has risen from Dec low in January.
VLO's profit increases as Oil prices go down as it has already sold future refined OIL at higher prices in the market.
Lets see in coming months.
From January as Saudi is going to follow its own pricing structure for heavy crude , Valero is one of the few refiners with the technology to distile log-grade high sulfur crude into final product. It is going to make high profits.
Valero with its key acqusitions and timely partnership with austrlain firm to buy bio-fuel will produce 10-15% ethanonel contained gasoline with very high margin.
16.60 current price is very good bargain , once high investment bankers run this stock, short sellers will run for the covers, which will inturn drive the prices higher. Whoever has shorted from $20 price will be forced to cover their position.
My prediction will be reaching to 20$ with 5 weeks timeframe.
Shorters are hard to find stock at current price of 16.75 for buy to cover.
There have been plenty of short selling from $20 , longers acting smart and holding the VLO stock, they will reap handsome rewards buying VLO at low price of 16.75.
Gas, Oil and Coal will be major energy player in near future, compared to Wind and Solar. Those technology ROI are still more comparing to coal-oil-Gas ( COG ).
We need refined oil. Refiners go down so as we and our life style.
Hold for another two weeks .
Sell just before Presidential Speech around 20th Jan.
Stock market will hold till that time. than it will be down.
While VLO has potential to rise atleast 20 by this June. Also buy Nat. Gas stocks like WMZ , WMB , EP... as Nat. Gas is way to go for CAR Companies... see some annoucement within six months for Gas Convertibles.
Any stock value is based on future performance and not past. To have loss 1$ in the last quarter , Tesoro has to loose around 140MUSD which is very absurd.
Once results come out on 2 Feb , all the shorts will run for cover and within 1 day TSO will rise 1$ to 2$.
As Crude price dropping and US coming out of recession slowly and steadily ( See stocks VLO , SUN , WNR )...
This stock has only one direction that is going NORTH.
Please do not listen or get drifted in analysts opinion. They are sometimes biased and percive thing differently . Analsts had predicted AA ( Alcoa ) for 6 cents profit while AA declared 1 cent loss.
Analysts are paid to make larger profits for the organisation and thats how they make money.
When results will come out , you only will see. write my words on wall.
Look at VLO, Analysts predicted 50 cents loss , but actual loss came out to be just 28 cents. For full year , loss is very low compared to what Analysts were scaring clients.
In TSO also , within one week we will know that Analysts were wrong again. They want to profit from loss of others.
TSO will be profitable last quarter or very minimum loss may be around 20 cents. and for full year it will be profitable.
TSO in mid-west area does not have that much competition. In California they have 9$ a Barrel margin which is ok. so overall TSO is better than SUN and WNR.
Poor shorts will loose more this time too , they had lost when market went up back in June'09 timeframe. They will run for shelters.
I am buying lots of stock at 12.5$. give me more at this price.
Do not buy this stock as there is n't any reason, that this stock could go to 18$ by April and 25$ by august.
This is Trap for normal investors. Till last week , no one was buying this stock and within one week , what changed to fall in love with this stock...
This is SCAM.... do not fall into it. I have already burnt my finger last time.. when this stock was take over target.... but see what happened... It dropped from 15$ to 11.70 with in month.
If they try to restrict, It will jump like spring as soon as they release their hand.
and In that process they only will get hurt.
I am buying some more on the news that US imported 1.5 million Barrel more oil compared to last year.
That means Refiners are refining more that means they are earning more.
VLO will reward who hold.
Hi Pegpadar and Cycle-trend ,
There is huge VLO long following. We will hold the shares till Sept. I will get 20% return on my investment.I am sure before that prices will be up as shorts will run like rats to cover their losses and when Hedgefunds realise their losses it will be too late.
Thanks for your tip about bloomberg. CRACK has been up for last two days.
I am bringing in some more money at 16.99. Short please drop the shares to 16.50 and I will buy more & more.
VLO is supplying refinded product to Venuzuala , Mexico . There is less import of refinded product from asia as they also need crude to grow.
Do Not be optimist.
But be firm in holding the stocks.
VLO will rise to 20 but in 2-3 weeks , may be
after a month.
Once Dow index drops to 9800 , VLO might touch 16.50, but then it will rise. At that time shorters will be in big trouble.
No I see , double bottom support.
It has resistance to go down and lot of traders
are waiting to enter at 16.50 so whoever is selling , is digging its own grave.
It is half election year so you will definately see some news about stimulus or income tax credit.
Oil is in big demand in Asia , oil prices can not go down and so is margin and crack.
God bless you if you short on VLO.
Simple, first you have to explain why stock price declined even though it gave good results.
See WNR, TSO , SUN, All are up.
In the case of VLO , MMs does not have enough stock to make profit so they are using scare tactics to get your stock at cheaper price and sell it back to you at higher price.
Do not fall prey to this monkey trick.
If this stock drops further , buy some more .
It's done deal now as everyone knows we are back
in recession. See the spread , It is back to 6.90$.
No gain in labor market, people still losing jobs. Companies are not hiring. Jobs going to India and China.
Lots of foreclosures. Still wave of bank failures are yet to come. Demorcrats are going to loose mid term election. Change is not coming.