I capitulated this morning and sold out at $14.52. That was my break even point and I was happy just to break even. I want to thank rockraider3 for his patience in explaining the terms of the paas buyout. It really helped. I might be cured on buying mining stocks - too many variables (politics, poor management,accidents,etc.) I think I'll form a support group for anyone who feels compelled to own mining stocks. I wish everyone the best and hope mfn goes higher. Over and out.
It is better to believe in the long run. However, if you're addicted to action,it's better than sports betting.It's hard not to take advantage of these swings. You'll never catch the exact low or high, but 30 cent swings with 5000 shares makes for an interesting day.
Management's message was that the dividend is probably going to be cut. However they didn't give any specific numbers. The lack of specificity causes fear so investors bail and move to what they believe is a more predictable return on their money. This stock may bounce back somewhat but not much until there are more specific numbers on the dividend and the fear is removed. I sold this morning and bought SDT - who knows - it's all a gamble.
To mrtreefly: I think there WILL be an UPDATE. I'm somewhat pessimistic that the update will give us any exciting news that will drive the stock up significantly. I hope I'm wrong. If the update is bland, the stock goes back to 8 because so many shareholders and calls are optomistic. I guess I've been burned by these rumors og "great news here soon" too many times on other stocks.
It doesn't look to me like there's any news until the Feb 29 conference call. What an ironic date - LEAP year. In the meantime this stock looks like it's being played by day traders who are doing quite well if you have $100K to play with. Buy 10,000 shares at 9.15 - sell at 9.35. repeat process.
I don't think the would be commiting to new leases on Jan 24 (which they did) if they were going to be bought out by a competitor. I hope I'm wrong.
You can almost stop looking at MFN. If paas goes up $1, we go up 62 cents. If paas goes down, we go down. Let's hope the paas shareholders that wanted out are done selling.
To rockraider3: Nevermind; I just read your response to brianthego. Now I get it - thanks. I shoul have sold at 14.50; this thing could go back to 10.
To rockraider3: I must be dense. I thought there were 3 separate options for us;1. stock in paas with no cash 2. some stock and a small amount of cash or 3. we could elect to take all cash. If you read the posts, that appears to be what almost everyone is thinking. Most say, "take the cash" not options 1 or 2. What am I missing?
I'm starting to wonder if paas has the 1.5B to buy out all the mfn shareholders. If the have to issue more stock, I hope the insiders control enough stock to approve this acquisition. There's no good reason for the "regular shareholders" to dilute their stock. I don't think I've ever seen a company that's being acquired fall this far below (on a % basis) the cash buy out figure two months before the closing. Management is strangely silent -AGAIN.
The more I look at paas, I believe it's undervalued. It has a PE of 7 - SLW is 19.It got approval to use sodium cyanide at it's mine in Argentina last Friday which was a huge plus. Even if we all don't get the cash option, we still may do okay, especially if silver goes up or at least stays above $28.
Check out the paas message board. paas got some great news last friday when they were approved for the use of sodium cyanide at their Rio Negro mine in argentina. It had previously been banned. The stock has a PE of 7. It's going up after today's fall-out - I hope.
I'm backing up the truck - all in for 10% IN TWO MONTHS. Best arbitrage play of the year. Even if the deal unwinds, the value has been set.