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SolarCity Corporation Message Board

evendaypumper 76 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 22, 2015 10:30 AM Member since: Jul 31, 2012
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  • Reply to

    YOU GOT TO READ THIS!

    by ballcoach_30 Aug 21, 2015 10:21 PM
    evendaypumper evendaypumper Aug 22, 2015 10:30 AM Flag

    No, I didn't say you lied and I don't want a copy of the email.
    You stated its impossible to fake an email, and I sent you sites where you can do just that.

    You can also spoof phone numbers, check that on Wikipedia.

    Not saying you didn't receive emails and calls. I am saying you were incorrect in saying emails cant be faked.

  • Reply to

    Read offer

    by eagbob Aug 21, 2015 9:22 PM
    evendaypumper evendaypumper Aug 22, 2015 10:28 AM Flag

    It will not trigger unforeseen circumstances. The pilot group has been given an ultimatum, except this proposal or RJET will restructure and break the current contract.

    Glad I don't work there.

  • Reply to

    but there some good news for the cultists...

    by chasdfw Aug 21, 2015 8:18 PM
    evendaypumper evendaypumper Aug 22, 2015 12:29 AM Flag

    Of course it would reduce initial costs. Currently, manufacturers put a limit on where bats should be discharged to when they design. So if youre trying to have a 200 mile range on 70kwh the battery must actually have more capacity than that to avoid prematurely degrading.

    You might actually have a battery that was theoretically capable of 85kwh, that you've
    de-rated and protected by software from discharging past a certain point. ( like engines that are de-rated to extend life - done a lot in aviation )

    If the battery was bulletproof and could be discharged further, or even totally, then the designer can use smaller batteries to achieve the same range. Smaller battery, less expensive, but same range and rating.
    Other savings, if you have a battery that can save you 10 or 15% of weight, everything can now be lighter ( or less stressed ) since a major component is lighter.
    ie save enough weight, the frame, shocks, etc can be lighter,

  • Reply to

    YOU GOT TO READ THIS!

    by ballcoach_30 Aug 21, 2015 10:21 PM
    evendaypumper evendaypumper Aug 22, 2015 12:05 AM Flag

    Coach, very easy to send spoof emails. I just sent one from the whitehouse asking for support for a third term. So it can be faked.

    check anonymailer , fakemailgenerator, deadfake etc.

  • Reply to

    MY TESLA GAMEPLAN THIS WEEK

    by pwdyfan420 May 26, 2015 9:06 AM
    evendaypumper evendaypumper Aug 21, 2015 11:52 PM Flag

    What catalyst are you envisioning that will send the stock up almost 10%?

  • evendaypumper evendaypumper Aug 21, 2015 7:24 PM Flag

    Yahoo is totally lame.

  • The city of Manhattan struggles with lack of charging stations.

    In many cases this prevents people from buying EVs, as every owner should have an available parking place with charging capability.

    In a story in the New York Times, one of the owners is charging his brand new P85D in a garage 15 blocks away from his apartment from an ordinary wall socket, because he hasn’t found a better solution yet.

    Tesla Motors, beside installing Superchargers along main routes, and destination AC charging stations (up to 20 kW) in places like hotels, intends to begin a new campaign in Manhattan with destination charging station in garages.

    The project will begin with two dozen garages around Manhattan (from Wall Street up to 94th Street), where Model S owners will be able to charge every day. Those charging points will not necessarily be free, but home charging stations and energy are free either.

    Alexis Georgeson, a Tesla spokeswoman, said:

    “We wanted to move to an urban charging network that meets the needs of those who live in apartments or commute into a big city. Naturally, Manhattan was the place to try this for the first time.”

  • Reply to

    MOST TSLA LONGS WILL NOT SURVIVE THE MARGIN CALLS

    by cavanyc Aug 21, 2015 10:50 AM
    evendaypumper evendaypumper Aug 21, 2015 12:19 PM Flag

    cavanyc you should be careful of karma. It remembers.

  • evendaypumper evendaypumper Aug 19, 2015 8:11 AM Flag

    Why am I being so pessimistic there? There are several reasons for this:
    •Back in 2012, Tesla made its first few deliveries on the Model S during Q2 2012. In Q3 2012, it only delivered a further 250 Model S units. While I expect the ramp to be faster this time, I don't expect it to be massively faster.
    •Among the reasons I don't expect the ramp to be much faster, are reports of Tesla not yet having contracted for volume delivery of parts. This alone already introduces a couple of months' delay.
    •Furthermore, there are internal reports in Tesla-associated forums providing the same kind of information, confirming it. Keep in mind, though, that this kind of feedback has been suppressed (as you'll notice if you head to the source link).
    •Finally, a small detail in the prototype Model X fleet that's been running around makes me think that not all the kinks have been ironed out yet. Here go a few images (reproduced under fair usage, sources are indicated after each one):

    Notice the misaligned gullwing rear door? It was pretty evident back in April, but it's still present even in what are supposed to be recent production prototypes. Worse still, these are prototypes that haven't had time to put on considerable mileage (and one wonders how it would do under rough conditions, too).

    Put simply, that door still looks to misalign with usage. That's not the kind of stuff you expect to see at this point. Tesla might still deliver a few hundred vehicles made outside of automated production processes and with prototype parts. However, under those conditions it's not likely to ship anything near the 4,000-5,000 Model Xs it would have to ship to meet its guidance.

    Furthermore, if Tesla rushes these units then the first customers are going to be treated to what will probably be problematic vehicles (though it's also usual for early units to be more problematic no matter what the brand is).

  • Paul Santos

    Summary
    •Tesla is going according to plan, issuing equity as predicted, which led some analysts to have visions of an Utopian future.
    •However, in the present, we have reasons to revisit Tesla's 2015 deliveries guidance. This article presents an updated estimate for 2015 Tesla vehicle deliveries.
    •That estimate is informed by what we expect to happen to Model S deliveries, as well as what we expect to happen to Model X deliveries.


    The main caveat to my negative predictions and observations in this article is that Wall Street houses are going to be climbing over themselves to get a piece of the Tesla equity raise. Under those circumstances, their analysts can get very lenient and accepting of negative facts being counter-balanced by strongly utopian visions.

    This came true Monday, when Morgan Stanley raised its TSLA price target to $465, based on visions of Tesla autonomous driven cars providing competition to Uber in a still-to-come Tesla Mobility 1.0. Never mind that:
    •Tesla is far behind autonomous driving leaders like Google, Mercedes, Audi, Delphi, Volvo and others.
    •Tesla Mobility 1.0 hasn't even been announced yet. Though it probably will be at some point, just to put it on the table

    •Q1 2015 deliveries, already in the bag, 10,000 vehicles (rounded).
    •Q2 2015 deliveries, already in the bad, 11,500 vehicles (rounded).
    •Q3 2015 deliveries, Tesla guided towards 11,500. I will consider 12,000 because the guidance is low. However, Tesla coming up short is far from impossible.
    •Q4 2015 deliveries. For Tesla to hit the bottom of its range, it would have to deliver 17,000 vehicles. This is where we part ways. I see just 13,000 deliveries "at most", consisting of 12,000 Model S and 1,000 Model X. The reasoning is - if Tesla is delivering the Model X, the Model S deliveries will be flat at best. And for the Model X, even 1,000 units is optimistic

  • Paul Santos

    There have been many significant developments in the last quarter and this latest earnings call. Let me go through them:

    The needed financing was sought but insufficient

    As I had predicted, Tesla needed further financing and got it through the leasing warehouse facility as well as the revolver.

    However, as I said above even these were not enough. The revolver was too small, in spite of encumbering most of Tesla's assets. As such, Tesla will now need to issue equity.

    Tesla recognized the 2015 deliveries guidance miss.

    As I had predicted, Tesla recognized it will miss its 2015 deliveries guidance.

    Tesla did this both by lowering the deliveries guidance from 55,000 Model S+X to 50,000-55,000 and through issuing Q3 2015 deliveries guidance of just around 11,500 vehicles. If we assume Q3 2015 deliveries match Q2 2015 deliveries, then Tesla would need to deliver 16,891 Model S+X just to reach the lower end of its new deliveries guidance.

    This is highly unlikely. The Model S deliveries are already flat sequentially and at best likely to remain so into Q4 2015. Thus, even the low end of the new guidance implies shipping 5,359 Model X in the quarter. Tesla already started building an excuse for the new Q4 miss, by saying that problems affecting the Model X will translate into Model S production being affected as well.

    The truth is that the Model S is no longer growing, and this in spite of multiple efforts (AWD, 70D, referral program, etc).

    Production guidance flat sequentially as well

    Not only was deliveries guidance for Q3 2015 flat with Q2 2015, but production guidance was flat (at best) as well. Again Tesla put this down to a one-week factory stoppage, but these stoppages are getting ever more frequent.

  • Reply to

    Falcon wing prototype ===== design flaw ?

    by kbodie77777 Aug 18, 2015 10:33 PM
    evendaypumper evendaypumper Aug 19, 2015 7:12 AM Flag

    I've looked at videos of the doors opening, and it doesn't look that bad as far as clearance.
    It is sad the put it on an SUV, since roof storage is not possible.
    I think the doors will be the least of the X's issues once the backlog demand is satisfied.
    Its an old design, and I dont see where its going to compete well against the competition, especially
    at a price that may be higher than the S. The X will have competition from Audi, Mercedes and Porsche
    for sure.

  • evendaypumper evendaypumper Aug 18, 2015 11:48 PM Flag

    Agree. The four year delayed Model X is old before its even released.
    Will sell good for awhile, until the backlog is exhausted, but newer offerings from the competition will soon put a damper on sales.

  • evendaypumper evendaypumper Aug 17, 2015 5:56 PM Flag

    Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt.

  • evendaypumper evendaypumper Aug 17, 2015 5:53 PM Flag

    Yep, Tesla is a multi-million dollar company that is grossly over valued at $33B

    Totally agree with you for once.

  • It is incredible what "investors" will believe with this story stock.

  • Reply to

    Model X ==== hardest car in the world to build

    by kbodie77777 Aug 16, 2015 2:04 PM
    evendaypumper evendaypumper Aug 16, 2015 7:15 PM Flag

    You are right, nothing has happened the way it should have. The delays have really hurt Tesla, and it should have been profitable years ago, but that keeps getting pushed back too.

    I don't think the speed which larger manufacturers were able to bring EVs to market was envisioned. China was a very big disappointment even thought other manufacturers are doing very well there. I think the gigafactory was a real turning point, and Musk was blindsided when Panasonic and others didn't buy into the frenzied hype.

    Domestically, the strong dollar and low oil prices are hurting Tesla.
    Tesla will survive, but it wont be the big EV player it could have been.
    Most likely, BYD and VW will fill that role.

  • Richard Chirgwin

    Elon Musk has responded to criticism of the specs of its Powerwall home battery, and says when it start shipping the system's output power will be doubled, without changing the price.

    Vegan seat covers weren't the only hot button Elon wanted to clear up at the company's annual shareholder meeting.

    “We actually took some of the negative feedback to heart,” he said, “and I am very happy to announce that we’ve dramatically increased the power capability of the Powerwall."

    The original Tesla Powerwall spec of 2 kW continuous and 3.3 kW peak power output isn't enough to boil a kettle, so he told the AGM the new spec will be 5 kW continuous and 7 kW peak.

    That means Tesla has “basically more than doubled the power output … and the price is going to stay the same.”

    It seems to The Register that what the company has done is tweaked the battery management in the Powerwall so it pump out more electrons, faster.

    However – the specs are here if you doubt us – the total storage capacity (10 kWh for “backup” applications, 7 kWh for “daily cycle” applications) remains the same.

    That means a backup user – which is Elon's first priority for the home batteries – can now empty the batteries in two hours, if they so wish. To be fair, someone who already lives the off-grid solar life probably knows not to fire up a bunch of appliances after dark, but performance hype has been a feature of Powerwall coverage ever since the device's launch.

    Another criticism Musk's taken to heart is the cost to end users, since early on it looked like having a Powerwall delivered through the channel, nailed to the wall, and plugged in would close to double the final price.

    He told the AGM “the expectation” is that delivery and installation should be in the $US300 to $500 range.

    “We're going to be prioritising delivery … to partners that minimise the costs to the end user,” he said.

    That also means the home market Musk likes most is someone who already has so

  • evendaypumper evendaypumper Aug 16, 2015 4:21 PM Flag

    Not being incorrect would properly be expressed as un-incorrect, wouldn't it?

  • Reply to

    Up 13% today . . . where is it headed now?

    by pump_monkey Mar 6, 2015 11:28 PM
    evendaypumper evendaypumper Aug 16, 2015 4:09 PM Flag

    Don't see a lot of positives, but it still spikes occasionally.

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