That time and wheat prices don't mean anything to PNRA's price now. IMHO it's about customers, revenues, costs, and earnings. I don't have a position now, but it is tempting to short PNRA. Since today is Friday, I may decide to wait and re-evaluate next week. It is tempting though. I just took profits on a SBUX short (via puts) because it seems to be around the bottom of it's recent range, but haven't taken a position in PNRA.
I think the offerings have changed for the worse between a few years ago and when I was last at a Panera a few months ago. Maybe it's personal, but soups I liked there a few years ago and a meal size salad that was my favorite a few years ago has already become inferior to the prior product. My experience isn't the issue, but the drop in business (which institutions likely hoping to sell their position as high as possible blame on the weather) matters, IMHO. The most recent time I went to a casual dining place during a snowstorm it wasn't a Panera (and it wasn't the restaurant most loved on Wall Street either).
I don't have a position in PNRA (though I did a couple of years ago) and I'm not planning to go long or short at least not this week. My question regarding the weather excuse is whether hourly employees who couldn't show up were paid and if some hourly employees wanting to come in were told not to come in.
What I'm getting at is that weather conditions affect business every quarter. Sometimes, weather, travelling, etc. is good for a food stock and sometimes it isn't.
It's hard to tell if targets revised upward or downward are based on issues other than the weather.
In what mall was that? In two malls I visited, one in the midwest and one in the northeast, there were a couple of clerks and no customers. I'm not short KORS, but I used the opportunity to exit because, especially in this market and what I saw at malls, I don't want to be long KORS going into earnings next week. What malls did the MS analyst visit?
Now I see why KORS was as strong as it was today.
Actually, I closed out my new, smaller put position for a $10 loss. I made more than that when I covered the larger CRM put position this morning. So I don't have any puts from the high of the day. And you don't have any longs from the low of the day. I captured nice profits on other positions though,
CRM will fall just as sSYS and GME fell today. Where are specific disclosures from the bullies?
I'm buying a put position that's 2/3 of the size of the put position I closed out when CRM was under 56 this morning. Why would you be concerned about CELG? I bought puts yesterday morning and have already closed them out even though they didn't expire for a few weeks. I'm not going long CELG here because it could dip more before resuming any rally and because GILD's results could affect CELG. Remember, I first started long positions in CELG at 46 and 47, in 2009.
There's usually a wild up day on Tuesday or Wednesday of the week of monthly options expirations.
Unfortunaltely, I didn't re-start a put position in DECK this morning, but there could be another opportunity on another day.
GILD was a good long for the past week or so, but IMHO standing aside could be better when they report.
I don't have a position in MCK, but I'm trying to analyze why what's in the interest of Celesio owners (getting a higher price for their Celesio shares) would be in the interest of MCK owners? Is Celesio so central to MCK's growth that it's worth any price? At what price does Celesio become too expensive for MCK and a drag on finances rather than the plus expected by getting MCK into the European market? Are the interests of CELESIO owners who plan to sell their shares in line with the interests of MCK owners?
I'm not saying my observation is accurate. Please post more information about the value of the proposed deal.
MB delivered pump to institutions earlier this week and now with not one, but two "Fly on the Wall" alerts aims key words at the public to try to get them to buy shares from the bigger holders. There still won't be GAAP earnings in February and any increases in revenues that go to insiders won't benefit the public. MB does his best to help institutional owners look good, as they sell some shares to the general public. For a little while MB is avoiding reporting that GAAP earnings aren't expected in 2014 or 2015.
I was out of my option position and other trading portions and have just restarted a smaller version of my option position, while holding a core short stock position that remains smaller than the position I closed out pre-split.
BTW, IMHO Jaime Dimon and Eddie Lampert are arrogant and/or cagy IMHO. While some see Eddie Lampert as a loser in retail, (SHLD) and a success in AZO, the gains in both (no position) aooear ti cine frin what some call "financial engineering." BTW, AZO has gone up and up in price as AZO bought back more and more shares over the past several years.
Regarding SHLD, folks on Fast Money have finally realized that Sears as a retail business has deteriorated. While some hedge funds and other large holders may have shorted SHLD in the past, Fast Money people who recommend shorting it now may not have noticed shares for the public to short aren't available, with the possible exception with being available at a very high interest rate that's likely to make a new short position a loser.. By the time you hear the advice to short a stock that isn't doing well (such as by having GAAP earnings with any of various forms of financial engineering), much or even most gains on the short side will have been claimed.
Recent buying is more likely to have been short covering than new buying. As large holders dump some stock, though they may try to exit little by little, as the public comes in, there are too many institutionally owned shares to hold up the stock. A few weeks ago, there were a couple of days of heavier volume and they were down days.
BTW, though I'm not lame and regularly do 2 to 4 miles on the treadmill, I find the words such as "lame" and "lameness" irritating at the least. Some people who would be regarding as lame physically are very good people. Some people being referred to with that obnoxious term are smart, considerate, wonderful. Some are in the process of working very hard to overcome injuries that were sustained while protecting the rest of us.
Thank you for reminding me about CELG. Just before the close on Friday I restarted a small put position on CELG. I saw it as a good put to hold for a couple of weeks and then close out. Thanks to GS, I closed out that put position already this morning and with a larger gain than I'd expected. Actually, GS's target price is 140, but I exited my puts because there are likely to be bounces along the way and because I just wanted to start today by taking a profit. I wouldn't close out CRM though, because it's going a lot lower, IMHO.
I made money on the VIX this week and I don't agree with you that the VIX crashed. It's possible the reason CRM even closed above 55 is that there was put writing at the beginning of the week, before the 2014 selloff started. CRM was up on very low volume today. Though there are other stocks that traded less than average volume today, CRM's was exceedingly low, far less than half normal volume. As the average volume continues to decrease, when heavy selling comes in, volume that was once average, will stand out as being heavy compared to the lower and lower trading volumes.
You are bullish and you call this a garbage stock. I'm won't attach a label on the stock, but the fundamentals hardly support half the price and CRM's price will go down, even faster if market averages stop going up, as it appears is happening this month.
I don't intend to read tmyers28's reply, if there is one. In fact, after reviewing something, I won't look at this site over the weekend. To others, enjoy the weekend.
It's funny that you brought up CELG again. Early this morning I was in and out of CELG quickly for a gain of $200. It wasn't much of a gain, but it was really quick. Thanks for reminding me to look at CELG again, but one quick gain today on that stock was enough, especially since my shorted CRM shares are doing well and I closed out a CRM position earlier, too, and I have no CRM puts at the moment.
I don't know if you are paid to do what you do and it doesn't matter because your comments provide some levity.
In the past some posters have benefited from steep and fast sell-offs. Examples are the steep dips to 24 (in post split dollars) and then to the 30-31 area. Since those times, CRM has paid very high prices for acquisitions and insiders have admitted CRM is at least 3 years away from any GAAP earnings. Also during the time, more company resources have been going to insiders. End of year prices are near the highs, but the calendar year ends tomorrow.
You have referred to yourself as a regular investor, but some have wondered if you had other ties.
Maybe longs are putting off selling until after January 1, 2014, while pumping up the price on low volume and selling parts of their holdings on the bounces. Heavier selling will occur after the end of 2013. If there are shorts that are covering to lock in tax losses will find that not covering in 2013 and then covering in 2014 will mean earning more from covering later than they would get from getting a percent of losses taken now.
This wouldn't be the first time there has been heavy manipulation of a stock before the direction changes.
To avoid time premium losses in this maneuver, I have fluctuated between holding a very small, future put position and no put position. IMHO, put options will be a better buy later this week, though possibly as soon as tomorrow. Already, traders who expected CRM to shoot up over 55 for op-ex last week will have found out otherwise. It appears that selling into the bounce became more important than having CRM close out Friday even $1 above 55.
The average volume number keeps shrinking. Will the average volume start picking up as CRM sells off?
You are correct about the low volume. I don't expect CRM to drop much before the new year starts. It's potential new longs that need to know what you just posted. Unless some long shares will be sold ahead of the new year in an effort to beat out the larger holders, the low volume pump will hold CRM up until shares are sold later this week.
The math error is clear to anyone who is open-minded.
Is a PR engine at work again this morning? The post referring to the "outperform" is repetition of last Monday. That "outperform" which wasn't a "buy" is old news that is under summary again.
Could this be a push to help trapped longs? Will there be substantial selling later today or will the extremely low volume continue? Also, why haven't the incorrect shorted percent statistic been corrected yet? The split occurred over 8 months ago, yet the % shorted doesn't take into account that the total number of shares out has been multiplied by 4, while it appears to not have been taken into account in the statistics reported on this site.
The stock sold off from 55 and will trade under 55 next week. The only question is whether big holders will be willing to buy enough to push CRM up to 55.01 or so. That would be what they'd want if they had written weekly puts. If there's no institutional push to get CRM to close at 55+, then CRM won't go to 55.01 today. Regardless of what occurs today, IMHO CRM will trade under 55 next week.