Can you tell if it's a hedge against a short position or an attempt to hold the CRM stock up so the insider can sell a larger position on this bounce?
Over at least the past 20 or 30 years, insurance premiums have increased greatly. During that time, many drugs and procedures have been developed and approved and people who have certain diseases, conditions, and injuries are healing better and living long with some diagnoses than in prior decades.
We have all been paying for it through multiple avenues, including health insurance. The expectation for insurance costs to rise in the future shouldn't be a surprise because improved drugs and treatments are expensive. Drugs and treatments that are newly approved and in research now are amazingly expensive to Americans. Obamacare or the Affordable Care Act didn't cause increased insurance costs and won't cause it in the futures. Even stabilizing insurance costs is an improvement. Beyond that, any help for maintaining or reducing costs might need to come from drug companies, insurance companies' management costs, and other places in the economy. Government didn't cause such high health care and insurance costs. For example, in the past, insurance companies took over 20% (and some took well over 20%) of insurance premiums for what they do. Under the new law, 20% will be the maximum that insurance companies can claim for management fees.
Do you think you are the only successful trader here? I closed out a recent put in KORS. I did that yesterday and don't have a position in KORS now, but may buy a couple of puts either today or Monday. Just because there aren't many posts doesn't mean people are grieving. At this moment, I don't know if I will act on KORS today or not.
While the Wall Street "community" is aimed at avoiding a negative first quarter which may be bad for their business, CRM has barely moved up. Does that suggest there is eager selling in CRM or at least a dearth of buying?
There were fund managers who didn't sell BBRY, then with another symbol, but sold some at 50 on the way down and eagerly sold on a bounce into the 90's. BTW, Cramer was extremely bullish on BBRY at 120, just as he was bullish on DECK at 105 around the same time. Though Cramer has talked about "froth," he has not wavered in his positive comments about CRM, yet.
At the end of February, CRM reported even a non-GAAP loss. Since the 4 for 1 split occurred after the February, 2013 report, the non-GAAP loss reported per post-split share doesn't account for the increase in shares (4 for 1) . Should the non-GAAP loss be multiplied by 4 to arrive at the actual size of the non-GAAP loss.
(a loss of .19 cents per share and then multiplied by the fact that each share that existed in February, 2013 turned into 4 shares of stock). Another irregularity? While the stock has sold off since that report, the irregularity isn't accounted for.
It's clear that wasn't questioning your belief that CRM will go up. I don't question people's beliefs and opinions. I was questioning your comments about fund managers not selling shares at 55 if they haven't sold those shares at 65. IMHO you either miss the point or have an agenda you don't want to drop. I hope someone else explains it to you because I have other things to do now.
The "lot of covering near the highs" barely made a dent in the number of shares that need to be sold.
Today there could be an incentive to keep CRM above 55, especially if weekly 55 puts were written. It's not a problem for shorts that CRM could close above 56 since that's just a bounce after a 10 point+ drop earlier this month. Is today's bounce all that could be accomplished by holders who want to exit? CRM could rest until Monday --- or not.
If you want to be long CRM personally, do it. If you want to share your approach, do it. However, IMHO the arguments you've been making aren't logical. You state that if a fund manager doesn't sell something at 65, then the stock won't be sold at 55. At some point the fund manager can realize that 55 is higher than the stock can be sold in the future. That realizatiion could come this week or next week and the realization won't be shared until later dates. Even shares that are sold next Monday (last day of the quarter) won't show up to the public for 4 to 6 weeks when quarterly reports are posted.
If they held at 65 and they see the stock won't get up there again and are likely to drop below 55, there's likely to be selling at at 56, 55, 54, etc.. The only reason to hold shares that have dropped from 65 is if the shares are likely to get back up there again. Also, CRM shares could be sold if dips from highs are greater in other stocks, such as biotechs and if portfolio managers expect the biotech stocks to bounce more than CRM. Which has better GAAP earnings and anything above zero is better.
There is price pressure among cloud stocks.
I won't waste my time posting other reasons here.
1. A message about another stock reporting later today is followed by a blurb about CRM, which has nothing to do with door to door sales.
Also, I can't find my pre-market reply to Rasta... in which I wrote about how much CRM is still up in the past year and how far it has to drop and still allow institutions to collect earnings. This was in reply to a comment about all the profits there were to take having already been taken by longs. I disagree because those who went long 2 years ago and even one year ago still have profits for now and may want to take them. If my post reappears or if it's there and I just don't see it, the comments there are more cogent than the comments here.
Institutions and some individuals are longs that may want to take profits before they disappear. Though CRM has dropped from its high, it is also significantly higher than where it was even less than two years ago. CRM was far below where it is now as recently as one year ago and even less than one year ago. I covered some shares around 36 after the split. A few months before that CRM had dipped to just over 120 pre-split, which is equivalent to just over 30 post-split. It would be misleading to consider there aren't massive numbers of shares to be sold. The current price, just under 57 is after a weak bounce, but just as there was a 10 million share down day last week,, after the stock and first dropped to this area. Compared to where CRM is likely to drop soon, today's price is a gift to longs who want to exit, IMHO. I understand fluctuations and closed out April puts yesterday morning. I'd like to get them back for less money, so I'd benefit if CRM bounces. I doubt that it will bounce more than for a quick reversal, though.
Have you not looked up where the stock was a year ago, if you don't remember where it was?
As the costs of drugs have increased, insurance companies have had to raise premiums to cover their costs. When you say insurance companies are "ripping off" American people. have you considered that the high costs of the new treatments lead to higher insurance costs? There have been approvals for multiple expensive drugs and treatments from various companies. This is not just the issue of one or a few drugs or treatments. There are many forms of many diseases.
It may have been smaller in market cap, but that means it has farther to drop. The market cap has grown because of additional shares issued and that dilutes public shareholders while providing shares that are given to insiders who can then sell at market. Recently, one insider sold every share.
The recent 19 cents per share loss per share needs to be compared not to the loss per share in the 12 month prior report, but compared to 12 months before the February, quarterly report, this February's quarterly loss (after the 4 for 1 split) was 76 cents for each 4 shares, which have replaced each single share. I haven't seen that the report made that adjustment. If you saw that adjustment, wouldn't you have led us to it when I've posted the year over year comparison glitch?
He also said that he didn't know how far the pullback would go.
Yesterday I closed out the GILD puts I'd bought within the past two weeks. Even the CEO had claimed that it could take awhile for GILD to grow into its price. The sell-off may be over for now, though there could be some volatility, but a quick jump back to 80+ is unlikely, IMHO.
For those who consider $84,000 for treatment reasonable, do you think of that when you pay your health insurance premiums, which would have to jump a lot to cover the proposed prices for the new "miracle" treatments for many different diseases. If each company charges prices as suggested, will there be complaints when insurance premiums continue to go up significantly?
Last week, even pumpers predicted bounces going to around 60+ and the stock ended the week at 57. Even at 57, CRM wasn't a buy. There are millions of institutional shares to be sold one small chunk after another, but what large holders are selling now won't be reported to the public until at least the end of April and some may not be reported until the first half of May.
Presenting at conferences only costs CRM more money. It could be a lot of money that CRM spends, especially when paying to provide a keynote address. Does it depend on how much a conference presenter wants CRM's money. In the past, Larry Ellison returned a million dollars to MB because Ellison didn't want to give MB the time slot that MB wanted.
Presentations here and there are old news. Bounces have become smaller and volume increased last week as CRM sold off. The summary errors due to last year's 4 for 1 split remain. Does nobody at CRM notice or are such errors remaining deliberately? Then, the loss (even the non-GAAP loss) was compared to the loss a year earlier without acknowledging that there are more than 4 times as many shares than there were a year earlier and the loss is 4 times more per share.
This is the last week of the quarter, but it will be at least a few weeks before the sales of large owners are shown. Is selling occurring a million shares at a time and even a few million shares on the day that volume swelled to over 10 million shares?
Will more institutional selling this week and next Monday (end of quarter) push CRM down more, even after the market bounce this morning. Lately, bounces (such as last Friday morning) have been sold.
There were some new SPAM and pumper handles yesterday. Who knows where they come from and who cares.
It's possible that a CEO won't warn, possibly because the CEO doesn't want to face reality or because the CEO doesn't look behind the numbers he/she and CFO, etc. want shown and promoted.
Is this such a case? Also, will there be little bounces that disappear quickly as institutional holders and other longs try to sell parts of holdings on each bounce?