It reminds me of a child invited to a party. In the adult world, is this an event for investment banking clients. IOW, is CRM the spender being treated? BTW, is it routine for customers to be treated by bankers?
Actually, I signed on a few minutes ago to wish a happy weekend to others when I saw your post.
I won't call you a liar, but it was clear that I posted when it was time to cover CRM at 121+, which on a post split basis would be just over $30 a share. Prior to that I had shorted around 110+ to 122 and I covered shares (I didn't have options on CRM then) on the dip to 109 (though CRM went just below 109 at that pre-split time. Before that I had done a little trading in and out with not much gain across that trading, but not much gain is not the same as a loss. I was long CRM before then with my first buy in 2009, just about 25 (pre-split). I started making bearish comments around the mid 80's and it was too soon to not be in CRM. My idea of having a core position started after I that pre-split dip to 121. I have held a small core position that I add to at times and have cleared out at some times, though I have maintained a small core position over more than a year now.
I know my history. I don't care about your trading history and I don't know why you care about anyone else's unless you'd rather concentrate on others' than on your own portfolio.
Today's activity in CRM sets it up for downside activity with 60+ a lower high. While I have some involvement on the short side in CRM now, I think that next week I'll more likely wish I had a larger short postion, not a smaller one.
Today was more of a pump. Based on what happened three months ago, Monday could have a dump and it could be at the open, especially if there's one or more large sell orders, regardless of what market indices do.
Three months ago, CRM went from 56+ on Friday to sub 49 on Monday morning. That was after the quarterly report and pumping. Now we had a quarterly report, again without GAAP earnings and no expectation of them until FY 2117. Has CRM topped out for this quarter? Is it "good bye" to 60?
What? "...they are all reinvested in growing the business. ? Besides running the business, there are large "equity awards" to top insiders. Check out the recent stock sales by the CEO, for example. Isn't that where much of the revenue goes or does the money for "equity awards" come out of excess profits? Wait. There aren't any GAAP profits and there won't be next year either, according to the CEO and also written by Bloomberg.
"Acquisitions and other spending have crimped Salesforce’s profit since 2011. The company isn’t projected to report a net profit for a full fiscal year until 2017, according to data compiled Bloomberg."
The "other spending" includes billions of dollars in "equity awards" to insiders, including the CEO.
CRM admits to having overpaid for acquisitions (at least for one and some say for two), there could be trouble from that. Besides the obvious dangers of overpaying, there is also the likelihood that some "cloud" features will become commodities, as some overpriced companies did in 2001. Is that when survivors like MSFT acquire assets at reduced prices? The only way CRM has been able to make its last few acquisitions (at least) is to dilute the value of each share of its stock by continuing to issue more shares. It appears that the CEO and some other top executives are privatizing more of the revenue coming in through "equity awards." One question revolves around the head of a company not delaying massive rewards until the company actually makes money (GAAP earnings) , including from acquisitions. Are some acquisitions worth the price and others not worth the price?
Responsible parents teach their children regarding deferred rewards. Many companies act that way, too. Apparently some companies don't do that.
Yes, what is shorting? I was looking over the FOSL site, a stock I've never traded. After it dropped way down into the 90's, you posted that people shouldn't buy FOSL because of course it was going down to 54. Now FOSL is over 102. While this could just be a retracement of the drop, it's farther away from your 54 target. People in glass houses shouldn't throw stones (an approximation of the saying). I still don't have a position in FOSL, but may study it another day.
The Street post includes photos of Cramer and his main aide and researcher, Stephanie Link. Stephanie was on t.v. earlier today saying she wouldn't want to be long CRM now. Yet her picture is above the comments of someone else who apparently works at The Street. IMHO, it's time to sit back. I've exited my DE short, possibly too early. I've also exited my GILD long though not at the highest of the day. Where will the market indices end the day? Will Jackson Hole continuing into the weekend have an effect or not?
If not today, CRM will drop to 57 and then go lower next week. With this volume, it must be tempting for institutions to sell at levels that they haven't seen since May. Technically, this is still a lower high and this mqy be the last foray into 60 ( unless there's is a reverse split in the future.). In summary, there is reference to John Najarian (sp) being bullish. First, he no longer owns the stock. He bought it yesterday and sold it earlier today. Second, the bearish people such as Josh, Michael Santoli, etc. who cautioned against buying CRM here.
I've opened some short positions, too. With 17 million or more in volume, who are buying and who are selling? I replaced some of the shorted shares I covered before the report. I was hoping to reshort and at 58 I felt good and then added more above 60.50. It may not be the top today, but the stock could drop to under 60 this afternoon. Where will it close today and where will it open Monday?
I'll repeat briefly here that I first bought CELG in March of 2009. It was the second stock I bought after exiting my shorts. Last year I traded it and after some losses I made money when the biotechs retreated. I don't have a position in CELG now, but when I last traded it, I turned a negative position into a slightly positive position before I exited.
I don't wish negative things to anyone.
When long time bears becomes bulls, the top is forming. The (Stiffel-Nicholson?) analyst who was on t.v. may have turned "positive" because his company makes a market in it. Notice that the disclosues showed no ownership by he, his family, or his firm. He may have been under pressure from his firm that if he remained negative today they might lose their relationship as market makers for CRM.
I wouldn't want to be long over the weekend anywhere above 60 and not even above 58.
If CRM doesn't end today negative, it will likely go below today's low next week.
BTW, reporting a tiny gain after excluding some continuing expenses as one time expenses will be noticed by some who sound bullish, but are just watching how high this can be pumped this morning so that they can sell longs before they are trapped as CRM goes down.
MB is great at "smoke and mirrors." I'm not complaining because I will actually get a gain on my hedge. I hedged with calls and I'm actually getting a gain on them. Plus, I lightened my shorted share position and will get to replace those shares higher than where I covered them. How many hours will it take for stock to drop? Will it be at the end of the day with big sales? Will it be Monday or Tuesday or will it be later today?