It doesn't matter whether you are paid or not, IMHO your predictions could push CRM up a little so institutions could unload. However, weakness in the market (that could even lead to changes in directions by IBD) and yet another analysis of shenanigans on another site are likely to nullify your projections. On a pre-split basis, CRM is close to dropping below the 200 mark, which is 50 here, IMHO. It may not be today or tomorrow, but it will by the end of 2013 and even before the Dec. 21 monthly options expiration (in which I have no position).
There is selling on any tiny bounce. CRM hasn't bounced as high as that resistance. Perhaps CRM would have in a very strong market, but it appears that there's some end of year selling (of many stocks) by money managers who are deciding it's too risky to wait a couple of weeks.
Are you falling for the incorrect % short shown on the statistics page or do you want others to fall for it? Also "rolled back the 12% gains of the previous month" is the beginning of the stock rolling over. I've seen that before in other stocks that fell much more after such action.
I don't have a position in JCP, but I think JCP is a less risky long than CRM. I'd have to review JCP (which I was short above 40, though I covered it too soon, not expecting it to go to 10 or so). JCP may not have GAAP earnings this quarter, but CRM won't have GAAP earnings for at least three years, (admitted by CEO) if ever..
There have been nine full trading days since the quarterly report. During that time CRM has dropped below the 50 day and may be on its way to the 200 day MA. This occurred during a time when market averages were up considerably. Despite the fact that bears have done better than bulls since before the quarterly report, it's possible those who pump the stock aren't actually long the stock.
The reversal of the DJIA and SPY's at the end of today, amid a few stocks holding up the QQQ, suggest the environment won't be as likely to favor increases in CRM's prices, especially since CRM is in no position to buy back stock, which has been a way some companies have supported their prices. Even that increase in stock prices for some due to buying back their stock may have done all it can. If those stocks back off even a little, CRM is likely to drop more.
So all you can do is post an old message about 100 shares and not only ignore that I posted shorting much higher than that, a few days before the most recent quarterly report? Pumps generally continue until there's more selling by institutions. When a stock drops from 50 to 20, will "talking heads" praise analysts who called the stock a sell when after it had dipped to 30?
The CEO plans to take more money out of the company and dilute the holdings of other shareholders more. Will the CRM losses that he admitted will continued for a few years continue longer or become larger for the total company? Losses per share are not the total story when more stock is issued to fatten up the CEO's balance sheet. That's because insiders will get the additional shares and the value of others' shares will wither.
who wants to hold a stock for four years to see if there will even be 1 cent of GAAP earnings then?
I just noticed that a reply I posted earlier doesn't appear. Part of the message dealt with misleading statistics, etc.. If it wasn't allowed to be posted, it'll be interesting to see if a post mentioning it gets posted.
Can you trust a company that is about 14 years old, has no GAAP earnings, and has announced they don't expect GAAP earnings in the next year and also beyond that? Can you trust a company that allocates large numbers of shares of stock (at greatly reduced prices) to employees and the most to the CEO, while issuing more shares of stock so that public longs lose value? Can you trust a company that buys revenue at excessive cost and doesn't have organic growth while rewarding insiders as though they had made money for investors?
The stock has turned from upside pressure to downside pressure in that up days have low volume and down days have heavier volume.
Cramer has had many favs that he has dropped after they have moved down considerably and RIMM was one. He also loved DECK at 105 and hated it around 50. There are many more examples. Beware of Cramer's "favs," according to many posts following his recommendations.
I've heard that justification before on stocks from AAPL (at 706) and RIMM (above 100 and at 80, 70, 60, etc..). Over time, fundamentals lead technicals.
Clarification for newcomers to the site:
1, The message in caps is false and bullying possibly by a paid pump.
2. I have posted several times that I closed out the small short over a year ago in conjunction with covering at 121 (ore-split) along with stock I had shorted at different points (2-10 points) above 121.
3. It's interesting that though I tried to vote that message down, it didn't work. Besides putting in the up vote, what did that poster do to prevent a down vote?
4. CRM has no GAAP earnings and the CEO and CFO admit they don't expect any for years.
5. When there's dilution because stock is given to insiders for very little money and then some shares are sold at market prices, it removes value from the stock, while showing up as cash flow.
6. There are pumpers who repeat (after being called out for inaccuracies) accusations and ignore corrections. Thus there are messages that are inaccurate and could come back to "bite" CRM stockholders later. Some of that has occurred this week.
7. Stocks can falter regardless of what the market in general does. A major example is RIMM, which was pumped by Cramer and others at 120, which is when I turned negative on RIMM.
Someone who sold puts can buy them back at a loss or hope that the time premium goes down.. You are at the mercy of the market and the stock price if you hold your position until expiration. Put buyers know what there total risk is. Put writers don't.
Even with the shares I added above 157 (as posted real time the Thursday before the report) , several points above where I'd covered some shares (remember two dip days?) my position is smaller than where it was when I posted and covered some at 121 pre-split or about 30. CRM is still so overpriced. There are so many who still want to short it and I still want to short more, along with longs who will be smart enough to sell before the end of the year, especially since they won't want it to show up as a major holding during the first quarter of 2014 that CRM won't rally to where the pumps post blithely.
I'm leaving my computer now, relaxed and happy. I've taken profits on healthcare longs.
Have a great holiday.
There are reasons CRM is down. This dip isn't enough to reflect the flaws of this stock, IMHO. I added to my shorted stock position and I have also closed out my put position. It would be an unexpected gift to replace my put position next week, but I don't expect to be able to buy the puts then for less than I sold them. That means, though I could benefit from CRM not going down more this week, I don't expect it to bounce this week. I have gains on the shares I shorted this week and will continue to hold them without having to be concerned about time. It's possible that CRM will go down faster than even CRM bears expect.
I agree about the selling and stop losses. I think that some hedge funds could be interested in switching from being long (and locking in gains) to being short. Volume is running above average for today, as it did on at least two other days since their quarterly report. It appears that any bounces (which are weak), are sold quickly.
Many critics of CRM were waiting for breakdown to begin before starting short positions. These traders, as well as hedge funds may be adding to downward pressure on CRM from ridiculously high levels. I would have expected downward pressure from Motley Fool after more selling, but it's there this afternoon. There's more downside pressure on CRM regardless of what market averages do.
Am I responding to a computer generated comment posted around 3:30 p.m. EST , when I had posted earlier in the day. Are weird things going on here? Now it's clearer about one of the "names" that doesn't fit in with any purposes of message sites. There remains the question of whether the post came from "Underground Stock Alerts" (pumped above) or another source, but this afternoon's questionable post likely removed the value of those related "posts" on this site, IMHO.