The people on Fast Money endorse what the Mr. Lee from MS says on Fast Money. It's possible to have a different view of the "advice" from that MS employee. The question now is whether or not MMM has gone up too much now. I'm out of iMMM now. I don't think I'll buy MMM again today. It may be a sell by the first trading day in 2014.
It's funny that you mentioned CELG. I haven't been short CELG at 140 for a long time. CELG fluctuated in the mid 130, you may recall. I had one bad put on CELG later than that, but that was in the 150's and it was the smallest CELG position I ever had. As I replied then, I first bought 200 shares of CELG in early 2009, when it was 46 and 47. When CELG had tripled, I thought more moves up were unlikely without a selloff, but I wasn't posting about CELG or much else at that time. I've been long and short since then, closing out a long position above 170, but not as high as a poster there who caught CELG as it sold off from the 174-175 area. I went long again around 160 and I've exited that long, as I reported closing out a long earlier today. Actually, I closed out more than one long and only turned one of them into a put and it wasn't CELG.
I guess you are interested in what I've done because I've actually done it. I'm not interested in the details of what you post. I'm only on this site because I came back to my computer a little while ago to check to see if the market indices were higher or lower after the close. The U.S. futures won't mean anything until the morning. It's interesting that the Brazilian futures already point to a down opening and in the morning it will be interesting to see if European features have gone negative. December 26 is a holliday in some countries.
None of this removes the fact that the reported % short listed on the Statistics page is wrong and despite so many posts and alerts about it hasn't been corrected. I e-mailed to myself statistics pages that also show different equity values that appear and disappear. They are not a few dollars apart. They are many thousands of dollars apart and there is no confidence in companies that show vast swings in valuation.
It may be time to exit the long part of a long/short pair, but IMHO hold onto CRM as the short of various long/short pairings. Of course after a hot stock pulls back, expect a certain poster to claim "he" exited at the top.
Some such comments here pertain to CRM stock, not to the market in general.
You brought up the point that when the majority of people are as bullish as your post, it's because of what has happened and not what will happen.
BTW, when market averages went up considerably a few years ago, RIMM tumbled, as did some other stocks. Your post suggests other than what you wrote.
Whether or not the suggestive comments are aimed at shorts or at potential retail long to buy and hold the bag, it's something that can end badly for retail investors who "bite." Sometimes suggestive comments are far fetched and sometimes they seem workable when they aren't. Besides such suggestions being unlikely, in some cases what's suggested could be pushed away by regulations.
Apparently Cramer mentioned his suggestion about MSFT again and it's posted again as an entry after 7 p.m. (EST). It's funny that his article refers to RIMM since RIMM, now under 10 is a stock he insisted (at 120) was a guy and going higher. In retrospect, RIMM fell over 100 points over a few years, but had lost half its value within months.
If MSFT were to buy CRM, either it would have to be taken under by a lot or we could play TAPS for MSFT, IMHO. Either way, CRM is overpriced. Cramer is also breaking his rule about staying away CRM based on analysts' ratings that have nowhere to go but down.
BTW, according to Cramer's and others' own rules, there are too many analyst "buys" to be bullish on the stock. This suggests there are too many shares already held by those who have "buy" on the stock and there are too many shares to be sold for investors to buy the stock. That's a rule of Cramer and others except when it's not, such as after a stock that most analysts ranks so high as they sell at least some of their holdings. After the stock dips, those who said the stock was a buy have an explanation for why the stock fell. In the past, Cramer has been adamant about not buying or holding a stock that even fewer than a dozen analysts like. But "this time it's different", right? NO.
BMO rated it an outperform, not a buy and not even a hold. I don't think they said what they though CRM might outperform. Might CRM down 20% from here outperform a stock that goes down 30% from here? The term "outperform" suggests even BMO doesn't consider CRM a buy or a hold. I think suggested rumors coming from Cramer pushed CRM up today and if typically for such a rise, this could be the top for CRM. That would be consistent with such pumps when RIMM was 120, DECK at 105 before it was more than cut in half, and with the opposite direction when BA dipped under 90, etc..
Just a few years ago, fund managers were insisting they'd done good jobs if they outperformed other funds by being down 25% instead of 35%.
This could be the "Santa Claus rally" that so many expect tomorrow. Has Cramer done another favor for MB, and the jump will be faded as soon as tomorrow?
Put a small option position back on, but with a further expiration date. I could have waited until tomorrow, but chose to do so now. Will there be selling Tuesday morning if not this afternoon, IMHO. It's just a real time post and not a recommendation for anything.
CRM isn't nearly as heavily shorted as Yahoo Finance statistics shows. It's been about 2/3 of a year since CRM had a 4 for 1 split. The % short still shown on Yahoo Finance statistics appears to be based on the ratio of the split shares (4 for 1) to the number of pre-split shares. I believe it's up to companies to provide the statistics for their own stock. The % listed could make one question accounting. A few months ago Guy Adami (on Fast Money) commented that CRM was shorted "up the wazoo," possibly going by the % short shown on Yahoo Finance. Thus, CRM is shorted so much less (and possibly 1/4) as some claim.
For the time premium that could change, I exited my small put position even to where I'd re-started it a couple of hours ago. I won't touch my core shorted stock position. While it may or may not happen today, within a day or two CRM will be lower. BTW, BTU was just mentioned on CNBC as having lost 62% in stock value (I think it was just over 1 year and they may not have included the part of the drop in the end of 2012). Guess who loved BTU at the top? Shorts should be happy about CRM now.
The bounce in CRM's price so far today could be reversed soon now that an explanation has been posted. Earlier it was suggested by Jim Cramer (some say do the opposite) that MB should be CEO of MSFT. MSFT has had problems before and Cramer's comments are often faded (he loved RIMM at 120 for example). To me, Cramer's comments might have affected the bounce in CRM earlier today, but, as often happens with such comments, will be faded.
The combination of ORCL and Responsys present fresh competition to CRM. BTW, there are more longs who want to lock in profits. Low volume leads to a narrow exit door. While the SPX is over 9, it was over 11 a little earlier today. Momo players have shown they prefer trading NFLX, TSLA, and even FB. I don't have a position in any of the those, though I did take profits in FB a few weeks ago. BTW,( despite the failure of whoever should correct statistics listed on Yahoo), CRM's short ratio is nowhere near the percent listed. This figure has been incorrect since the 4 for 1 split. Thus there aren't as many shorted shares as some imply. Thus, bounces on low volume are more likely to be sold by longs than covered by shorts.
Over the past 2+ years CRM has had dips (great for covering) to the 95 area (pre-split) from around 140 (pre-split) and then to 121 (pre-split) from another rally above above 130+. The company was 11 and 12 years old and appeared closer to getting GAAP earnings. Since then, CRM has spent so much money on expensive acquisitions and has admitted to being years away from any GAAP earnings. Based on the internals, it's possible GAAP earnings expectations could be predicted even further out than that.The number of stocks has grown, too, and that was helpful only for Friday's rebalancing.
A few years ago, fund managers were reporting being victorious because they had outperformed by losing less than other fund managers. Outperform isn't the same as expecting earnings or even revenue growth. Perhaps that analyst realizes that a 14 year old company that doesn't have GAAP earnings isn't a buy. The word "outperform" also hasn't always meant "hold."
I'm glad to be able to re-enter the options I had closed out, as reported in real time. That's reporting as soon as one acts and not after a stock has moved somewhere and then claiming ownership.
Was it coincidental that after my last post about CRM, I got error messages when trying to add to that post?
BTW, I've closed out my KORS put and that's my record there even if it drops more.
BTW, I bought puts on CELG this morning and closed them out for a nice profit. CELG came off its high, but, of course, you sold it at the top.LOL
How high does it have to be for longs to sell and lock in profits for this year? Will the thought of a peaceful Christmas bring out higher volume selling after this low volume boost? I just added back some options I closed out previously (as reported in real time), but I haven't added to my core stock position yet (which is much smaller than I intend to have when the buying for the stock and the market finish the froth).
If you post that you have those stocks now, your outcomes can be reviewed by looking at the prices of those stocks in the future. Nobody believes a poster who established ownership before claiming gains at a later date. Otherwise, your posts mean nothing and you don't need to post.
By the way, this is the CRM message site. CRM had everything going for it today. The number of shares of CRM has gone up and that meant rebalancing mattered to CRM. But CRM couldn't solidify above resistance. I almost added to my short position in regular hours. Now the after hours bid is to the down side. Monday will be interesting. Shorts in CRM can be comfortable over the weekend.