Just barely off 52 week high, and miles above low. Global slowdown will impact travel & hotel occupancy. Downgrades prob. coming. Downside target $54-58.
You may be correct that a new round of QE might mark the top in bonds, but there are also other events that could cause bonds to sell off:
1. An unexpected drop in unemployment or surge in economy (unlikely imho--econ appears to be weaker)
2. An unexpected drop in the dollar, leading to foreign selling of U.S.T.s (more likely than #1, perhaps)
3. A continued rise in stocks, causing money to come out of bonds & go into stocks, i.e. "risk on" trade (may be happening today, but I think the next big move in stocks will be down, so this reason may be unlikely going forward)
4. A need for foreign creditors, e.g. China or Europe, to repatriate assets for U.S. to cover domestic needs
5. A shift in investor expectations on the risk vs. rewards of bonds. Given the low rates worldwide, this could happen suddenly. Preference for cash may rise, causing sell offs in bonds and/or stocks.
We'll see--but your new QE thesis may be correct.
Syb, what do the trading gods tell you about Twitter?
Syb, you're not the IRS. Don't have to show my hand to you. All I'll say is that they were late Jan. SPY puts, bought right be4 Jan. 1. I'm out of them. May roll into Febs, perhaps put spreads on a small bounce. Most of my assets are in safe cash accts. I only risk 5% max in options at any one time. You seem to risk your entire net worth, or most of it. options, if used carefully, can reduce risk. What I don't understand is since you hate options so much, you never sell them. Given your bearishness, why not sell out of the money call options on the pigs?
Just did Syb--up better than 425% on portfolio--and you're up only 6%? Poor Syb. May roll down into lower strikes.
Here we go.
It is meant to sucker you in. Could come as early as Tuesday after an early selloff--will be promoted as "turnaround Tuesday". It will fail. SP500 could touch 1950 area by Friday, or 1820 worst case.
Of course there may be some trading halts--1000 point drops do that. But the market won't close, barring some technical infrastructure breakdown.
What are you saying? They'll close the markets? If 2008 teaches us anything, it is that any amount of money will be created out of thin air to keep the markets going. The casino is just too profitable for the likes of GS. P.S.--I won't tell you how much I made on my puts today.
Don't think it reaches 19K, but it might. If there is no rally, we head off the cliff.