From 1933 to 1937, there was a major bear market in treasuries, as the economy appeared to recover a bit. But even more seriously, from 1930 to 1933, there was a massive bear market in lower rated corporate bonds, as fears (and actuality) of defaults rose. Sell junk, if you insist on holding treasuries.
Incidently, that plan was a ripoff of JM Keynes--he famously (perhaps facetously) said the exchequer should bury cash in cans, and set off a wave of new employment as people & companies dug for the cash. But the helicopter idea cuts out the need to dig.
Instead of a new round of QE, how about going back to Ben's original plan of dropping $100 bills from helicopters, especially over impoverished areas? That money would do more good than QE!
I googled it and noticed that the tamiflu patent may be expiring soon. Can anyone provide more info? It seems the that earnings could suffer if it does. Thanks.
Adam Sandler makes the worst movies on the planet. Although that golf film was kinda funny.
The so-called "deflation" may be partly a result of the low rates themselves, in a couple of ways. First, as economist Ed Yardeni points out, the extremely low rates have caused overinvestment in some areas of the economy and created over supply, which produces deflation if demand doesn't rise to consume the supply. Plus the low rates themselves have reduced interest income to savers, who reduce their consumption.
Microscopic rates may be the problem, not the solution.
Brian Kelly at CNBC must have put out his "sell" on Friday based on this ominous, bearish pattern. Prior to Friday, Kelly was a bull.
Place sell stops @ $132.70
Thanks Sybil. CMG to $480? That will inflame skiidady. But could happen--they can't find pigs for carnitas burritos.
A few demurs--they ask how can rates move down with record spread betw. U.S. & Europe? Dan responds that the market is one sided, so the unexpected can happen.
Now Dan N. is saying buy TLT put spreads--also turns bearish on TLT. Move to $120 he says.
BK has been correct so far. Will his TLT sell be correct? We'll see next week. One thing is certain--market will be UNCH Monday.
Next week may see a down 10% in markets, esp. if ECB doesn't deliver. What do the "trading gods" say Syb? 100% certain prediction--Monday will be UNCH in U.S.
All it takes is a couple of billionaires deciding they want a bit more silver, & silver runs to $35-50.