$50 seems reachable, $65-70 on BO that some have speculated about. So, potential reward is $11-$25, risk maybe $5. I like those odds.
I have a few medium term SP500 (via SPY) puts just in case. Market is just about as expensive as it gets, although it could rally a bit more. If there is an unexpected "black swan" event (rapid econ. slowdown?) that knocks the market down, I'm prepared. I have a few calls in stocks that still might rally. TWTR looks interesting on buyout spec. But overall, bearish.
Reading an excellent book by Jim Grant on the depression of 1920-21, "The Forgotten Depression". Evidently the economy recovered nicely without any fiscal stimulus and little monetary stimulus. The price system alone made the adjustments.
They didn't lose faith in 1999-2000, when Greenspan failed to prevent the tech bubble from emerging & popping; not in 2004-2008 when Greenspan & Bernanke fed the real estate/stock bubble that popped. So many bubbles and crises, which the FED aids & abets in my opinion. Sooner or later, will confidence in the FED & other CBs fade?
So, you would short the stock indexes? I have some SP500 puts spreads going out to Feb--the bond market sure seems to be signaling a slowdown at least & earnings expect. are still too rosy imho, esp. for the multinationals bucking a stronger dollar.
The Armenian fellow agreed, called the watch a "dud".
Gold/Silver ratio nears all time high--silver is cheap rel. to gold.
Silver is cheap.
Solar may have a pretty high initial fixed cost, but once installed, the continuing variable cost is almost zero.
Syb, I always pay attention. I think the worst of the decline happens early in 2015 though, maybe starting early in January. All the people with gains will take them since taxes can be paid in 2016. I see a horrible january, in fact. But you may be right--no big Santa rally this December.
Put it to a vote.
"Key statistics" section here says 62% of shares are held by institutions. That is a lot of portfolio rebalance selling & profit taking headwind over the next few days or weeks. $10o test would not shock me.
Now they are overweight--where do you think all the buying came from over the last 45 days? Mostly institutional. Now they will do some selling, for profit taking & rebalancing.
Like a few have said, it was probably portfolio rebalance selling. Apple grew to be a larger than desired percent of fund portfolios, so they sell. This will continue. Could knock 10-15% of the price quickly. This will happen no matter how good their sales are.
Google now eating Apple's lunch in school notepad sales acc. to new Forbes article. Goog sells its pads for $179 vs almost twice as much for Apple (incl. discounts).