HCA Holdings, Inc. Message Board

risnoynum

You are correct, they have not yet announced the date. " Ex Dividend date in less than a month " is my estimate based on 3 months plus April 10, previous Ex Div date.

WMC Update: Stock bottomed @ $ 17.32 on 6/12. Every subsequent day WMC realized higher high's and higher low's on moderately high confirming volume. MACD, while still negative, is trending higher with 12/26 crossing 9 day. Stock broke through 20 day SMA today before a small pullback. As we approach Ex Dividend date in less than a month, the lure of a 5% + quarterly dividend will attracted buyers. Questions about dividend sustainability are addressed in today's Motley Fool posting " if rates go up 50 bps, you should expect Western Asset to report a 2.2% hike in the coming quarter’s net interest income. "

Absent discordant news from the FOMC ( FED ) next week, WMC will likely continue it's upward trajectory. Expect WMC to exceed $ 20.78, 50 day SMA next week and $ 21.31 200 day SMA before Independence day.

After some ray of hope yesterday, the DXJ continues it's negative short term trend line. With only one small exception, the DXJ has realized daily lower low's and lower high's. The Nikkei, at 12,686, is now down 20%. The Yen remains strong vs Dollar @ $ 95.19. The S/T technical's of DXJ are uniformly trending lower.

Additional Bank of Japan stimulus decisions, if any, are unlikely before the conclusion of the US Federal Reserve June meeting this coming Wednesday. Longer term the Yen is likely to depreciated against the dollar, this is positive for the DXJ. Short Term the DJX is likely to bottom @ $ 40-$ 42. If that level does not hold, the next support is $ 36.43- $ 38.94

CTRX technical's have remained under stress since May 1. After some consolidation after May 23, stock is again droppong by 3.74% today. Trading is below 20,50, and 200 day SMA, and MACD continues to be below zero. The process of price discovery is not yet complete, and will will likely test $ 46 support this week. As previously indicated, stock price resumes growth after a bottom has been established or a new positive catalyst is realized by the company. Until then the down trend is firmly in control.

betting_freddy

Your caution is warranted. DXJ is still in the process of price discovery. Today's snap back brings us back only to the price of two days ago. One day is not a trend. DXJ technicals indicators are still negative. The underlying market headwinds of a strengthening Yen, $95 vs $ 101 a week ago, and weakness in their core customer geographies, Europe, China, and the US, are unchanged. Furthermore, Finance Minister Aso expressed unwillingness to intervene to lower the Yen. Additionally, as reported by Forbes " $155.3 million dollar outflow — that’s a 1.7% decrease week over week (from 209,800,000 to 206,300,000)."

Subject to changing conditions, my personal three price price are between $ 40 and $ 42. I now have 1/3 of my position filled, as of yesterday.

betting_freddy

I personally have set three different buy levels for DXJ between $ 40 and $ 42. The highest level was triggered within the past 30 minutes. The nearly unprecedented 1 day 3% appreciation of the Yen vs Dollar, and concern about the impact of tomorrow's unemployment number' on Federal Reserve tapering is today's market moving factor.

June 6 update. All technical continue to point decisively negative.....MACD, SMA, Stochastics. The Yen appreciation vs the dollar has eliminated the carry trade, significantly disadvantaged Japanese exporters, and tanked their stock exchanges. Effectively panic selling, based on real fundamental reasons,is begetting more panic selling.

Jeffrey Gundlach the prescient founder of Doubleline Capital, was unique in predicting the drop in AAPL from $ 704 to the low $ 400's. This week he predicted that the Nikkei would bottom @ 12,000-12,500. This translates to a DXJ price of $ 40.92-$ 42.62, consistent with my May 23 estimate that the DXJ would correct to the low $ 40's.

We are now in day 6 of the correction in Japanese equities. DXJ is down an additional 2.2% today. As reported by Barron's the IMF has reversed itself and is now pressuring the Japan Central Bank to avoid further depreciating the Yen. A strong Yen, weakening economies in major customer regions....Europe, and Greater China, are contributing to the severely correcting Nikkei.

Technically, the DXJ is now below the benchmark 20 and 50 day SMA, with the MACD approaching zero. Absent a positive catalyst, not now evident, the DXJ will likely challenge low $ 40 support levels next week.

Insiders may have anticipated the " sell on the news " phenomenon. Corporate officers and Directors including the CEO, CFO, and Chief Science Officer, have sold 2.6 million share, in 26 separate transactions, with most recent price of $ 50.17- $ $52.88. Concurrently, large institutional investors have sold nearly 43 million shares.

One additional measure of near term investor sentiment is the largest number of open orders for the June 22 option puts is $ 50.00.

Any one indicator is just a data point, but weakening stock technical's, high senior officer and institutional investor selling, large negative option interest, and a declining share price suggest that the stock is likely to test the low $ 52's support level.

Correction is now in the seventh trading day of lower low's and lower high's. Stock is now another 2.4% today. Stock technical's continue to weaken. MACD has dropped below zero, 5/13 day EMA is negative, and the stock is trading lower than the 20, and 50 day SMA. BMRN could challenge $ 60 support level by early next week

BMRN stock continues it's correction, shares down 1.42% today. Negative timing for FDA review of Vimizin is providing a negative catalyst for a stock already evidencing significant weakness in the charts. BMRN is poised to test $ 60 support levels in the next few days.

Stock is recovering today after reaching yesterday's $ 17.88 low. If this holds, this will be the first up day since May 15. As I previously indicated, if the stock could not hold the the mid $ 19.30's support, a drop to the $ 17's was likely. The next few days are important to determine if the corrective trend has been reversed or is merely taking a breather.

Contextually, rates are going higher. MREIT S/T borrowing costs are increasing, CPR's will likely decline, near term margins will be compressed, until the MREIT's can redeploy assets to higher yielding securities. S/T hedging strategies will either ameliorate or magnify the results.

Update- DXJ is now in the fifth consecutive day of it's correction. Shares have declined from a high of $53.95 on May 22, to today's low of $ 47.17 or a 13 % decline. The stock technical's are telegraphing accelerating weakness. With one exception, ever day registers lower low's and lower high's. Stock is below 20 day SMA, and is close to breaking lower than the 50 day. The MACD is dropping sharply, ditto the 5/13 day EMA.

DXJ continues on it's path to the low $ 40's support level next week and will likely break below $ 47 this week.

lenloc

I use options primarily to provide insurance for my positions. I have sold puts, but avoid, at all costs, naked shorts...they are toxic.

The REGN correction that began on May 15 continues unabated. Stock is down another 3.33% today. The stock is down nearly 15% from the May 15 high. Tellingly, every day since mid May the stock is registering lower high's and lower low's. One measure of market sentiment is options. June 22 puts are showing the highest open interest in the $ 210 -$ 240 range. In aggregate, the technical's suggest that without a new catalyst to change the negative market sentiment, REGN is headed towards the $ 214 support level.

Update: The 33% increase in the benchmark 10 year Treasury is being mirrored by the 5 year Treasury increase from .64% early May to 1.07%, a 67% rise in rates. The concern is that the MREIT's is, at least temporarily, misplaced on the yield curve. The increasing cost of short term borrowing compresses margins, and places in question their ability to maintain dividends. The stock price is compensating by declining.

Stock technicals for WMC : The 5/13 day EMA and the MACD are weakening at an accelerated pace, the important $ 19 threshold has been broken, and every day the stock continues to register lower low's and lower high's. The next support level is $ 17.36.

Slegemark

I am making no judgement on inherent value. The reality is that the MREIT sector, including WMC, has been correcting,or declining if you prefer. Since WMC's April 9 close of $23.72 to today's close of $19.00, is a 20% loss in shareholder value, by most definitions a correction.

Treasury Yield increased from 1.6% to 2.13%, up 33% in the past two weeks. This is largely caused by market expectation that QE...X will " tapper off " this year. During that same period WMC, corrected 13%. WMC is emblematic of the distress in the MREIT stock sector. Concern over MREIT's ability to generate the earning needed to maintain their high dividends, plus the higher yield's on " safe " Treasuries, are weighing on MREIT's.