I feel my posts have been quite accurate and insightful. On the other hand, your posts reek of dishonesty, as you always attempt to hide the other side of the story. Just using the label FUD to characterize anything that disagrees with your rigid opinion clearly exhibits your disgusting duplicity and deception. Both smalls and you are both boldface liars. I have no idea why you both attempt to try suppress. Cr00ks or idiots, I'm not sure. But you must be one or the other.
You are dishonest. You post news that makes you feel good about your position--which is fine. Just don't lie about discriminating between news articles based upon the degree of speculation contained within.
2013 is in the books, 2017 is not. All indications point to VOD being in excellent condition in 2017, but a world recession or disruptive technology would change that. Your posts may not affect the price of the stock, however your posts do serve as excellent sentiment indicators for me.
It's people like you who don't know what they don't know that get carried out feet first.
1)You have not even read the research, but you assume that you know the reason for the earnings downgrades.
2)Your analysis of telecom assets is laughably superficial. You may be able to fool some others on this board, but not me.
Your ability to be a critical thinker is completely lacking--rather, you just simply twist everything to fit your predetermined opinion. You will find a way to justify/rationalize everything related to VOD, because you are trapped.
I think I know what I know and what I don't know. One thing I am certain that I am clueless about is guessing what technological decisions are correct. Suffice it to say that many strongly disagree with the path Colao has chosen. FIOS.
Analysts' research reports can be 30 pages to 40 pages long. These reports go into much more detail than you can imagine. The reports may not be useful with respect to the accuracy of the ultimate conclusion, but they provide a ton of financial data. And these reports certainly do take into account all acquisitions and the concomitant synergies.
Yes, I agree that Seeking Alfalfa and Motley Gruel are usually really lame. However, the fact is undeniable that earnings estimates for 2015 are literally collapsing--and that development should not be ignored.
I have worked my way into a large position at a decent price. However, the stock is extremely weak in my hands. I cannot fathom anyone who thinks the current risk/reward profile even approximates that of a year ago. VOD has a nice CURRENT dividend and I believe it is worth more than the sum of its parts. Otherwise, fundamentals appear to be deteriorating.
Nonsense. The article focuses on the critical FACT that 2015 earnings estimates are falling. What about the speculation which characterizes the type of article you often post, like the one titled "Will SoftBank Turn Its Attention To Vodafone After Being Put Off T-Mobile". I guess pure bullish speculation is acceptable.
You posted that you purchased stock on March 7. If the analysts are correct about their 2015 estimates, you may not see that price again for years.
Why didn't you post the story about Vodafone earnings declining by 1/3? It is certainly of great importance.
FOMOH=Fear Of Missing Out On Hockey as explained by Alex Ovechkin in the VZ commercial .
However, foolish smalls is afflicted with that painful and dreaded expensive disease called FOMOV. There appears to be no known cure for a compulsive addiction to irrational and unreasonable "hardaways".
When FY 2016 ends, MS estimates that VOD will have in excess of £26 billion in debt. And my experience tells me that there are often cost overruns. If you combine any type of potential earnings misses, you have a can of worms.
Hype should give the bears the other side of their trade, FUD provides the bulls with the other side of their trade. I currently own the stock(weak in my hands), but there are as many things that can go wrong as can go right. With ambitious capital spending and acquisition plans, VOD is extremely susceptible to recession.
You have a fertile imagination.
Colao has beachfront property. He is going to try to maximize the sale price even he has to sell it in different parcels. Again, the risk is misallocation of resources or a world recession. I would have liked Colao to have been a seller, but he didn't choose that direction. How many "hardaways" are you willing to lose?
I really do not understand how any of this has a bearing on a T bid for VOD.
My take is that VOD will have no free cash flow in FY 2015 and FY 2016 due to high capital expenditures. Moreover, debt will then necessarily increase by the amount paid for acquisitions--which will be significant.
VOD is a fixer-upper. Colao is not going sell at a low price--he is going to get top dollar after his rehab is complete. If Colao executes properly, he will have a jewel in 2017 with free cash flow. At that point in time, he will get a VZW type price--either for the whole or the sum of its parts.The risk associated with VOD is related to Colao's execution and/or world economic growth. My feeling is that with Kabel D and ONO, Colao announced that he would be doing the renovation rather than selling the property as is.
Maybe he should have hit Randy's bid.
Now, we have the 4 Horseman with which to deal.
1)Hedge Fund Sale Announcements
2) Debt Downgrades as most analysts pro forma ballooning debt
3)Disappointing Earnings and Cash Flow GuidanceGuidance/Dividend Policy review fears
4)Analysts realizing that an potential takeover or major restructure will be pushed out to 2016/2017
Long term buy signal will be given when VOD price turns a deaf ear to these pieces of news. Price stability with bad news will indicate that weak and speculative owners have been flushed out, and the stock has shifted into strong long term hands.
Most of my position was in options, and I did sell many of them when VOD was between $38 and $39. But you should know better than most that many options traded for higher prices during Q4 2013 than when the stock hit higher prices in 2014. My option sales were excellent. With respect to stock, no problem admitting it, I left a ton of money on the table at different times--but I also avoided big mistakes like chasing new highs .
Absolutely has nothing to do with T buying VOD. T is going up because Randy realized how levered and/or dilutive the transaction would be and stopped sniffing the rumphole.Come back in 2017 after Project Spring--free cash flow and an acceptable price for Colao. In the meantime, prepare to embrace some pain.
After all my machinations, I'm an unhedged long at $35.26. So, I completely avoided a 7 point move down from the highs, while also giving myself a chance for some upside had it occurred. Profits 100% intact and a slight mark to market gain to boot.Eat your heart out smalls. Today--sold stock at $35.50, bought 2x stock at $35.07, bought short calls back near low of day, sold stock at $35.36 near close. Hard work always beats fantasizing in the long term. Looking for a positive/diplomatic solution in Ukraine. As Charlie Daniels says"that's how you do it, son".
You are a loser because you parse words and miss the big picture. I always "speculate/hedge" with a few % of my assets in gold stocks, and have for decades. Long gold stocks in 1979/1980 allowed me to retire at a very young age. I'll never come close to giving that back.
11p per new VOD share is the declared new ANNUAL dividend until proven otherwise. Do your homework.
Today is the first day I've ever been net short VOD. Sold at $35.50 and kept my short calls, just doubled down bought at $35.07. Good luck.
I have held a position in gold and gold stocks for decades. The 10 baggers more than make up for any losses. Sometimes less and sometimes more, but I always have some.
FYI, analysts are dropping forward EPS estimates/share below the 11p/share dividend. Why do you think the stock acts so poorly.?