About a month ago I said that sometime soon the 1.3 million shares short will start to cover in a stock that only averages 80,000 shares a day in volume and it will be explosive. The explosion has now officially begun.
In a stock thats tough to buy ( it took me a long time to buy 100,000 shares ) and only trades an average of 83,000 shares a day how are the shorts going to buy 1.3 million shares that are short. The company has promised news in the 4th quarter on their lead drug, and I believe it will be good, so it could be very frightening for short sellers when they attempt to cover.
The approval in Europe makes it even more likely that that the advisory panel will vote to approve Gattex. I've been doing Biotechs for many years and invariably they run up to to the advisory panel meetings. Its as close to a sure thing as you get in biotech. NPSP will be higher on Oct. 15 ( the day before the advisory panel meeting ) .
Biotechs almost always move up going into an advisory panel meeting. There are less then 2 months to the panel meeting and its generally smart to play the odds here and the odds are overwhelming that NPSP will be higher then here on the day before the advisory panel meets.
thats really silly. An FDA approval of Gattex is nowhere reflected in the stock ( partcularly a stock that acts like its never getting approved for anything ). An FDA approval is never a guarantee no matter how compelling the data so if and when it is approved I guarantee the stock will soar.
This stock should do very well for the next 2 months before ADCOM in Oct. Historically Biotechs tend to trade up with heavy volume before their panel meeting. I don't believe it would be a smart move to sell this stock between now and the panel meeting.
The reason the stock was moving down was the anticipation of a 3 month delay in the PDUFA date. The news is now out so the there is no more reason to sell in anticipation of a new PDUFA date. The selling was rediculous anyway. In the great scheme of things what is a 3 month delay.
I have been doing this for a long time but I have never seen a PR person like NPSP has. You know very often a PR person for a public company cannot say very much in reply to a question but they still have a way of saying nothing and making you feel fine about it but she makes you feel like a criminal for asking a question about the future. She is in the wrong job as she is the sourest person that I have ever encountered in this job and she certainly is not doing the company any good. By the way, I am a very large holder of the stock so I can only imagine how nasty she would be to a small holder.
It was a good call. There is a lot going on short term. The earnings are now behind us ( which is always traumatic for ZGNX ).The stock should now be headed higher with all the potential good news now in front of us and most of it short term.
not a chance in the world that it goes that low. 6.75 is possible but no more then that. I suggest if it gets there load up because it is really outstanding value at that price. Actually its outstanding value at what it closed at today but stocks tend to overshoot what logically makes sense on the way up and the way down.
Poor NPSP is doomed to only collect about 100 million dollars a year because the additional indication for Sensipar didn't make it. Their 2 drugs that they are applying for approval from the FDA this year are unimpaired and yet the stock is down about 15%. I for one didn't even know about any additional indications for Sensipar and judging by the fact that nobody who followed the stock either knew, ever talked about or cared about this, the selloff is remarkable. I believe the short sellers who were getting caught in this stock before the selloff saw this as an opportunity to scare some sheep and recover their short selling losses. Its just absurd and stupid.
Just as I thought there is no real seller in ZGNX. Its a short seller. I said before that it looks like someone wants to hurt the stock because a real seller would not try to destroy the stock at the closing everyday. Now we know. The short position is up about 800,000 shares. The only way to counter that is have buy orders at the end of the day to make it painful for the short seller.
unfortunately lately you can almost guarantee that the stock will be clobbered at the close. This is not legal and has to be stopped.
A legitimate seller wants to get the best price possible on his sale. By making sure the stock always closes weak and therefore looks weak he makes it less likely that he can get good prices the next day.