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American International Group, Inc. Message Board

fabricone1 517 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 30, 2015 10:08 AM Member since: Oct 4, 2000
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  • fabricone1 by fabricone1 Apr 30, 2015 10:08 AM Flag

    I believe better than expected

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Therefore the direction of the stock will continue upward.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Slow growing economy but revenue improvement and margin improvement is evident. Dollar has no negative impact on this company's performance. Low interest rates are very good for big capital projects. Upgrades will follow after next earnings report. CEO is out showing an excellent presentation on the business and has built some trust back over the last 3 quarters. I expect earnings to beat again along with a strong indication that the sales trend is becoming increasingly strong. I have been adding on dips and I am overweight here. Only AAPL rivals my investment here. I expect both to potentially become long term legacy stocks for me.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • fabricone1 fabricone1 Apr 29, 2015 2:35 PM Flag

    It actually is a banner year for financial performance but the trade has become the corollary for oil until earnings reports are updated..

  • fabricone1 fabricone1 Apr 28, 2015 4:01 PM Flag

    Yet the short guy. Keeps spewing stupid unsupported facts. Go figure.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • fabricone1 fabricone1 Apr 28, 2015 3:38 PM Flag

    You will be licking the $hit of your fingers long before that ever happens. So you have upgraded from zero eh ?DYou do not even believe your own B$. Ha ha hah

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    AAPL IS GOIN TO CRUSH NEXT QUARTERS EARNINGS

    by superventure Apr 28, 2015 3:20 PM
    fabricone1 fabricone1 Apr 28, 2015 3:36 PM Flag

    The haters will have to work hard not to lose money currently. This is set up to roll and when AAPL begins to buy the stock in quantity these guys will get crushed. The news was excellent around the earnings and revenue beat and everyone believes we get this same result or better next quarter as well. By then we will have more intelligence on the I- Watch but what we know already is that it is the best Smart watch introduced to date and at the minimum it will eclipse all the past sales in units over the past 5 years ( around 5 million units ) at a much larger Average selling price. Do not be surprised if they sell 12-15 million units at an average margin of over 40% on the bundle with accessories. #500 apps on board already and more coming. And on top of it all is that it really does look good and it is very cool. This will continue the I-Phone performance in unit sales as well. The eco-system Has only been penetrated by about 20% . Big things are still going to happen. Do not forget about their "tiny " businesses either, Tunes. Beats, Pay, coming soon auto accessories etc. I-pads are still the best of breed and will begin to accelerate a bit as well. Stay long and strong. I will double down using options to drive some income from the uncertainity here. No reason for it at all. Appl trades at a significant discount to the S&P and it should trade at a least a 25% premium to it in my opinion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • fabricone1 fabricone1 Apr 28, 2015 1:00 PM Flag

    The thesis is based on facts and in addition to all the points you made here which are excellent this company has an extremely high return on equity invested ( over 32 % ) in spite of no debt. The company has grown to this level without long term debt and financed from cash flow two excellent distribution centers and an annual new store growth of 20% new square footage annually and that is 60 new stores last year and 70 new stores his year. Fabulous results. The analysts have slept through this in part as they are not used to seeing many retail enterprise operations without substantial debt to fund operations. The typical short seller has no appreciation for the balance sheet here which is driving a positive leveraged cash flow.Ultimately this will be a huge company driving an enterprise of over 2000 stores and driving multi billion in revenues or it will be bought out by a grrowth oriented competitor. That is the only way it goes to zero is that it belongs to another company and was bought out at a premium .

  • The only thesis I have read that makes sense to me was from Fabricone1. I decided to post it again.
    1.. Proven Business Model
    2.Strong management Team
    3. Growth of revenues and profits in a lackluster economy.
    4. Acceleration of growth when economy improves beginning in 2 nd quarter
    5.Developed infrastructure to provide for rapid growth through state of the art distribution centers
    6. New store growth strategy working very well as stores pay for themselves in under one year
    7.No debt
    8. Developing e-commerce sales
    9. Stated view of management for 2000 new stores
    10. Free leveraged cash flow is very positive
    11. Strong US Dollar is good for gross margin and import program.
    12. Enhanced Board of Directors providing specific experience in key areas of growth and HR development.
    13. Balance sheet is extremely solid
    14. Large short position will prove to be a plus as there is a beautiful trap forming where it will be difficult to exit preserving profits and driving stock prices higher.
    15. Excellent buy ratings from respected investment institutions.
    16. Strong institutional ownership of shares.
    17.Industry has displayed some interest in consolidation of Dollar Store companies.
    18. Could be a target in the future but I would prefer the company be allowed to grow out independently.
    19. Compounded annual growth rate of only 20% will double the company every 3.5 years .
    20. Company is actually growing faster than this rate so there is a safety cushion in my calculation.
    Driven by a superb business model and excellent management. Vision + Plan = Superior execution = Major success from here

  • i agree if you can get some around the $5-6 range. This company has lost its' pizzazz and they blame the Dollar for Elfa ? The Elfa line is so over priced that the sales trend was down before Dollar headwinds and the Elfa line is produced over seas so it should be cheaper. Tindle has done many things right over the years but his vision and lack of innovation coupled with a slow moving retail economy will be the death spiral if they do not innovate again.

    Stores are not exciting and the best items are sold every where . The core is Elfa without sales growth here the assortment looks like a dollar store but over priced. Sell this down even further . I forbid even fools to buy above $10. If you want to be a bagger and hold for a year or two go for it.No value for anyone who bought in the 20+ area for a long time.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    you aapl pumpers (call buyers) don't buy stocks..

    by osulindrool Apr 28, 2015 11:49 AM
    fabricone1 fabricone1 Apr 28, 2015 12:05 PM Flag

    I also own shares but at this level options are a better return percentage.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    you aapl pumpers (call buyers) don't buy stocks..

    by osulindrool Apr 28, 2015 11:49 AM
    fabricone1 fabricone1 Apr 28, 2015 12:02 PM Flag

    Actually calls must be covered by the market maker and they do have a direct impact on the share price. The Market Specialists must keep their book in balance therefore the call is just as important as a put is negative.

  • Reply to

    looking a bit oversold at stochastics and RSI

    by fabricone1 Apr 28, 2015 11:03 AM
    fabricone1 fabricone1 Apr 28, 2015 11:51 AM Flag

    Correct. There should be some insider buying at this level. It would turn the stock around. The outlook is strong I can not understand why there is not buying from every officer at this level. If they were willing to sell at 38 one would believe that a potential gain of 30-35 % minimum would be some what appealing. The problem is that they have too many cheap options and a low coefficient of greed if they are not buying.It can not mean they do not believe the stock is going up or they would not be doing a road show. When I was a C-Level executive I bought on these kind of pull backs always and I made a lot of money as a result. I expect a market timing indicator to be green this week again and I will buy at that time. It is unbelievably low so long as they are telling the truth and safe harbor does not protect them toi the extent that they would presume if they are fabricating.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • fabricone1 fabricone1 Apr 28, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    The real problem is no oe cares. This stock was given to me as a suggestion. I must admit I hate the industry but these guys manage well . No one trades this . Poor liquidity . I need to trade in a share volume where I can make money. Is this a buy out candidate ? The only way I see it. The value is around $35 a share as I see it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This is one hell of a stock to read well using technical indicators . I hope the CEO planned sales or not is not selling here a very bad optic . The out look is much better than the stock performance at the moment but over all short term market timing does not allow me to enter a new trade today but I hope to be buying along this support area if it holds. If you are not a market timer it should be a good entry point. I have to stay with my rules based system. It is not always right but it is usually correct.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Cheap Stock

    by geoffrion22 Apr 28, 2015 10:04 AM
    fabricone1 fabricone1 Apr 28, 2015 10:26 AM Flag

    i agree if you can get some around the $5-6 range. This company has lost its' pizzazz and they blame the Dollar for Elfa ? The Elfa line is so over priced that the sales trend was down before Dollar headwinds and the Elfa line is produced over seas so it should be cheaper. Tindle has done many things right over the years but his vision and lack of innovation coupled with a slow moving retail economy will be the death spiral if they do not innovate again.

    Stores are not exciting and the best items are sold every where . The core is Elfa without sales growth here the assortment looks like a dollar store but over priced. Sell this down even further . I forbid even fools to buy above $10.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • trying to get a better price both to cover and go long, Different dynamics but same goal to close or open at a lower price. This is aa strong buy here. If you listened too the conference call you now know that only 20% of the eco system has upgraded to the 6 series I-phone so far. More coming, far more as the two year wait time is rounding the curve big time. The I-watck is going very well and this will contribute to the 6 series growth and there is already 3500 apps available and more coming. Only the big I-pad was weak and that is no real surprise due to thee new MAC. Cash is king and the buy back is growing and they can push this stock around where they want it . And you are selling ? No way. Shorts are trying to keep the lid on and it is not going to work,

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Nice dip forming up

    by fabricone1 Apr 27, 2015 3:22 PM
    fabricone1 fabricone1 Apr 27, 2015 10:03 PM Flag

    low IQ at work eh Alice ?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • fabricone1 by fabricone1 Apr 27, 2015 3:22 PM Flag

    Thanks for the opportunity. This is the opportunity I really like.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Going to be beat the street again.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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