....seems like a no brainer short term trade with very little risk (again thats short term). Don't see why HRTG can't get to $25.....they should make over .70 next quarter and around three bucks/share going forward.
fortunately, MCZ already guided for a loss of over a million bucks, so that big losses should already be built into the price. And, as has been said by others, next quarters is MCZ's historically weakest quarter and well prior to the huge expected year end build up...so its virtually meaningless.
re: "Right on right on right on. Sounds like the only people buying are the people on this board. Who you gonna sell to?"
...I'm pretty sure you'll be on the bid, you_so_silly, when this thang finally hits its high, so if I get real lucky, I'll be dumping them on you.
I luve updtab's confidence...simply does not waiver in good or bad times. Plus he's smart and offers quality insights.
Now, does that uber confidence/optimism make hit the best investor? Who knows. But I bet he does better than 90% of us jabberheads.
Keep 'em coming uptab.
micro, thats where I get my loss of one million or so for March quarter. They dont expect operating profitiablity in '15, means they expect at minimum a $700,000 operating loss in q4 (that would give breakeven operating profitablilty for the year). Since thats the lowest loss they could have, I would expect more like a $1.2 million operating loss. Taking into account interest expense, and a positive tax effect on the loss...and you should have a loss of a million+.
micro, they already gave guidance that they will lose near one million in the March quarter. I doubt any rebound is expected before the second half of calendar year 2016. However, if they do need to raise funds at some point, the recent share offering provides MCZ with a better opportunity to borrow funds in the future (rather than a stock offering).
All imo. best.
hopeful, there's no machine bs going on here, imo. Its real people with real orders, for good or bad. I've put orders in at .3671 which have hit for some shares recently (including today). Why .3671....no real reason...its somewhat arbitrary, no harder to place the order at that price than any other...I decided I'd add if it went under thirty seven cents.
IMO, too much studying individual trades or daily trading patterns leads to weird and often unjustified conspiritorial conlcusions....just like trying to get too much info out of a chart............or tea leaves for that matter.
Look, I know you've been a successful trader, so whatever works....there are plenty of people who have made more money than me in ways I dont fully understand. But lots of people stick in four digits on the bid and ask.
Hope all is well....both in life and market.
Well Darren already guided in the conf call saying MCZ will not show an operq4 ating profit for fy 2015. That means he is guiding fourth quarter loss if at least what, $750,000. I wouldn't be surprised at a million dollar loss for the quarter. But since he already guided for that, shouldnt be a big deal. Even if they lose a decent amount more, doesnt matter that much. Its all about the second half of calendar '15, which should be very strong.
uptab, first I respect your insights a lot. But the recent warning and/or change in sector confidence has analysts looking not just at the March quarter (whose estimates were lowered just a little bit). Analysts just lowered the June quarter and September quarter estimates by ten cents for each of those quarters, and lowered their estimates for fy 16 from negative three cents to negative .41/share.
Analysts are fools in many cases, and they may be here. But they do seem to be taking recent change in conditions as a longer term problem. I do look forward to those announcements that pop HTCH up a buck in a day.....and hopefully those will be followed up by a further strong HTCH performance for a year or two.
I am just frustrated by HTCH's inability to reduce their losses in the near term, whomever's ultimate fault that is.
hey micro, imo, I dont think anyone was holding any line...just the ever optimistic HTCH investors who love to average down at all prices. They are similar to MCZ investors in that both luv to average down and catch every downside penny so they can say that they bought HTCH/MCZ at the low...whatever that will be.
I am very long MCZ, and actually up on that trade since I kicked out a bunch in low .50's and bought back hard and more recently on the big dip. Actually, long run (one year out) I like both...(on the HTCH side, I dont believe 'local storage' will shrink over the next few years, on the MCZ side I think the secondary was necessary to help achieve future growth).... but I will continue to trade opportunistically to (hopefully) lessen risk.
..was bidding HTCH up into the $2.70's after they warned, similar to what they did when HTCH originally warned when she was in the mid threes. Gave us not as dumb investors (but still long HTCH, so not smart) the chance to lighten up and buy back on the inevitable price decline, earning a little 10% trading divvy.
Anyways, still long and still dumb.
HASC (Hasco Medical) is an example of a 'healthy one-center', imo. Its actually moved up to a two-center now.
Not a recommendation to buy, just a stock I picked up a short while ago that I think fits the bill.
...this piece of ^$@!. Waitl..I actually did, a little while back. So all I can say then is thank the lord I haven't been averaging down heavily on this load of $5&!.
Another warnings or two, maybe come December tax loss selling season, she may present a great buying opp.
in the 10K:
"....as a result of lower than expected net sales in the first quarter of 2015 and the reduction, pursuant to the Sixth Amendment, in the advance rate applicable to Eligible Inventory from 50% to 25%, the Company has experienced a material decrease in its liquidity in the first quarter of 2015......While the Company anticipates that its net sales will return to historical norms during the third quarter, in the interim the Company has been in discussions with Santander, seeking an accommodation to temporarily increase the advance rate on Eligible Inventory or other accommodations under the Santander Financing,"
...was going to wait till the actual offering/deal day (I think Monday), but at this level...given the positives stated by the CEO, MCZ just seems too cheap for me not to start buying. Anyways, I added 80,000 so far today, which aint too much considering the share price.
Course we have a falling knife here so who knows where she bottoms and pops back up.
puestapete, raising three million plus dollars through this stock offering does put MCZ in a better situation to raise cash via the debt market, since lending institutions see that MCZ has strengthened its balance sheet making it less risky, and MCZ has shown it is willing and able to enter the secondary market to raise cash if necessary.
I'm not saying this is true with MCZ, but I have seen other companies raise cash via a stock offering, and follow that up near term with debt financing. Once company that did that was RCKY years ago (when it was trading around seven bucks)...and in that case the lender actually stipulated that they would only make a deal if RCKY raised a certain amount of cash through a stock offering first.
I think its way too early for anyone to even think about that. Maybe concerns about sector slowness, combined with the effects of the strong dollar.
I thought it was a pretty strong report. FNHC is still working through the huge, and I mean huge reinsurance expense increase that occurred last June.....I think given that, the earnings numbers they have been hitting are very high. Imagine in just a short while when they renegotiate their reinsurance premiums......on a apples to apples basis they should be coming down five to ten percent. So even with a small decrease in pricing, they have the ability to hold their margins up. And I am impressed with their continued growth. Again, all the other Florida insurers are barely increasing their Florida policy counts, and many are dropping. Others are picking up poor quality policies from whats left in Citizens. FNHC, on the other hand, continues to take market share from other insurers, and is continuing to grow on an organic basis....still the fastest growing insurer organincally in Florida by far. So far in 2015 they've added 14500 new policies (as of the date of the conf call). Last year's growth was just a teeny bit higher....at the same time they had added 15400 policies. Only a 100/week difference, and last year FNHC had a 57% growth rate in policies.....obviously that cant go on forever.
Anyway, we'll see. Their Monarch initiative was delayed, they thing it will start up by the end of the month...so a three month delay. Still, Monarch should start adding to FNHC's earnings in a significant way in less than a year.
Of course, FNHC continues to be a good trader, so nuttin wrong with selling into strength (for instance on earnings day betweeen 30.5 and 32.5) and looking to buy back lower.