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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

fabulouspoodle 123 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 29, 2016 2:41 PM Member since: Apr 7, 1999
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  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jun 29, 2016 2:41 PM Flag

    could be ...he can sell up to one year after the filing. The NAII fiscal year ending June quarter won't be out till mid-September. Still a long wait till earnings, plenty of time for NAII to make a move.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Jun 29, 2016 12:21 PM Flag

    ...hopefully, as LF discussed, the heat helps drive some additional HVAC sales in the June and Sept quarters.

    best.

  • ..my old failure. If it goes up a few more pennies it'll be a double..

  • Reply to

    OT: Some good ones to buy right now....

    by uptabdowntab Jun 27, 2016 5:42 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jun 28, 2016 2:30 PM Flag

    well, to join ln what we were buying, I was a buyer of a couple of UVE's Florida competitors yesterday, FNHC and UIHC. Also bought the home builder NWHM, a few more CUO, and some BNSO. Looking at the health care company HLTH which I had recently to buy back. Also lookin at trucker CGI which I sold month or so back as well to rebuy.

    best.

  • ...they filed an NT-10k, and if you back out the numbers to get what IEHC earned in the March quarter, well, you get that IEHC earned .30/share for the March quarter on around $4.4 million in sales, vs .18/share on $3.83 in the March quarter one year ago.

  • Reply to

    I wish NAII would just..

    by fabulouspoodle Jun 3, 2016 10:25 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jun 23, 2016 3:41 PM Flag

    ....I think we bottom here in the $10's...maybe low $10's. Thats no guarantee, but I'll wait. Earnings aint out till September.

    best

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Jun 22, 2016 11:53 AM Flag

    ...between $7.33 and $7.39. I think its a very good value here, trading below book with expectations of better quarters going forward...lots of optimism by management.

    Now, KTCC management has been optimistic before and followed with mixed results. So thats a risk. But I think the evolution of KTCC ovre the past few years....losing some major customers, replacing with small to mid size customers, prepping for the long ramp time of new customer products, then spending money on the ramp, expanding into more of new customer product lines.....has come to a point where KTCC should start to benefit more with revenue growth, and that revenue growth should lever eps growth.
    Now there are negatives. Its kinda weird when I see other small cap EMS'ers whose earnings benefit quickly from new custumers, while KTCC seems to need a long ramp time. And of course they're dependent on how the economy effects each individual customer, sales projections can change quickly.

    Overall, I dont think the shareprice has risen nearly enuf to reflect KTCC's progress. And if KTCC has achieved that inflection point, she could start looking like a snowball heading down a mountain.

    Ok, maybe that last sentence with the snowball image was laying it on too thick. Point is I like KTCC's risk reward here.

    best.

  • Reply to

    OT....buying NROM today...

    by fabulouspoodle Jun 17, 2016 5:13 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jun 22, 2016 10:38 AM Flag

    ..I sold 40% so far this morning at an ave of .74...may sell more.

    Original target was .9 to $1.00...but that was longer term than this. Dont know if the stock will continue up (due to the Walmart announcement) or move back down from here short term, but wasnt expecting the quick move...so bird in hand. Plus, as I detailed in my blurb on NROM, it comes with warts....really cant trust management much. When I was buying between .43 and .51, I knew the negatives, but thought down there the warts were more than priced in, and in its super oversold state, and positive news could be amplified up.

    Anyway, thank BB...best of luck.

  • Reply to

    What incredibly foolish selling, IMO

    by hopeful200 Jun 15, 2016 11:22 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jun 20, 2016 3:46 PM Flag

    ..geeze, so tell everyone about NAII's market. You comment that other posts are worthless, yet your posts have added no info at all, and have been completely insipid.

    So tell us what you know about the beta alanine market.

    best.

  • Reply to

    OT....buying NROM today...

    by fabulouspoodle Jun 17, 2016 5:13 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jun 18, 2016 10:51 PM Flag

    pull, I'll take a shot at a few of your points,

    1. $800,000 for trade shows - I believe the trade shows were to show off their new in-store oven and stand-alone concepts....but maybe its been going on for awhile. Sure sounds like alot...I think thats good for someone investiing now. B/C it seems like an easy way to cut costs and raise eps quickly.

    2. PPS has been is stead decline, thats true. It certainly could go down more. I wish I knew which way every stock would go. Nevertheless, I think the stock is undervalued.

    3. The investment company....I said in my original post why Privet decided to leave, and the positives and negatives about it.

    4. The economy. When I invest, I dont assume the economy will tank going forward. Sometimes I take money off the table when I think things are funky, but I invest the virtually the some way with less money. If I did think the ecomomy was going to collapse I probably wouldnt invest in anything. And I' m not even sure the pizza biz does poorly in a down economy. I do understand not wanting to invest in the sector. Thats fine...there are pleny of ways to make money in the stock market. So long as you're successful, thats great.

    5. The Pizza Biz...I made money on a teeny-cap pizza company just a few years ago, PZZI, which I believe now is RAVE. Started buying at $1.60, it went down to a buch, and then two years later went to $8.00. I don't get concerned about what a company makes, widgets, rubber-bands, whatever. I think theres plenty of room for more pizza resaurants. I assume you are invested in KTCC. They just do simple third party manufacturing. They have no special tech at all. There are many far far bigger companies with exponentially more customers and resources than KTCC. KTCC needs to compete with them and find customers...just like NROM (imo). Yet both you and I think KTCC is a good value.

    I like NROM's risk reward at here, but could be wrong.

    I appreciate the feedback..best

  • Reply to

    OT....buying NROM today...

    by fabulouspoodle Jun 17, 2016 5:13 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jun 18, 2016 9:47 AM Flag

    If interested, you should certainly review the section in the last earnings pr labelled, "Development & Strategic Direction"...a lenghty section detailing their strategies. Too long to Copy and Paste here.

    Obviously, there are no guaranties that managements business strategy will be successful.

    best.

  • Reply to

    OT....buying NROM today...

    by fabulouspoodle Jun 17, 2016 5:13 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jun 18, 2016 9:36 AM Flag

    bb....no, I just think it looked like a decent risk reward.

    Positives
    Trades well under book value, without significant debt to worry about.

    I believe they should make .06/share or maybe better going forward yearly.

    Way oversold on a short and long term basis.

    Cash flow helped b/c NOL's shield taxes (although all taxes are recognized in earings)

    They have recently signed/added lots more deli locations (239 up from 106 one year ago), so there seems to be promise to increasing earnings.

    Privet fund selling has driven the price down, there was a cross of 250.000 shares Friday...probably Privet, so they had 938,000 one month back, so thats now much lower now.

    Just noticed that CEO picked up some shares Friday. Small amount of 20,000 sharses at .45, so not meaningful at all, but if he or other management continues to buy...well its something to watch.

    Negatives
    Privet Fund leaving b/c they claim NROM has big potential to increase share value,but management basically ignored the majority of their recommendations since they became the largest shareholder. There are several shareholder letters from Privet to NROM in the SEC filings. Privets selling does say something about NROM negatively...who knows, they could believet that NROM has no future.....so NROM is certainly speculative even at these levels.

    NROM's biz has been in decline, management has done poorly.

    I have not done enuf dd on NROM. Need to do more. So, I am not convinced, nor do I fully understand NROM managements turnaround strategy using growth of stores plus their growth in supermarkets. I have to do more dd to become comfortable and understand their strategy going forward. As anyone should that is interested.

    So I have picked up a position, not too big though.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Jun 17, 2016 5:13 PM Flag

    first of all, KTCC is getting pretty darn cheap again, but I guess eveyone here knows that

    Second of all, OT, NROM (Noble Roman's) is getting real cheap here. Previt Capital has been dumping their humongous positon. On May 26 they had 938,000 shares left...I dont think they have to file anymore.

    I think NROM is worth a lot more than .45/share, imo. If anyone gets a chance to look her over, let me know what you think, either here or on the NROM board.....positive or negative, both equally valuable to me.

    best.

  • Reply to

    I added on earnings day...

    by fabulouspoodle May 20, 2016 10:38 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jun 15, 2016 2:14 PM Flag

    pretty bad reinsurance renewal. Dont understand how the premium went up so much. I understand that PIH is better coverage and thats great. But it seems to me that kinda increase signifies that their prior reinsurance was light.

    best.

  • Reply to

    What incredibly foolish selling, IMO

    by hopeful200 Jun 15, 2016 11:22 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jun 15, 2016 1:58 PM Flag

    You do know Borg amassed his huge position illegally and got stuck with it for years while NAII languished until this most recent turnaround. Borg...who has been taken to court by the SEC for stock price manipulation and intentionally not filing required docs, is the sociopath, thats pretty obvious.

    I mean I dont luv NAII, but you are certainly not making much sense regarding Borg.

  • Reply to

    What incredibly foolish selling, IMO

    by hopeful200 Jun 15, 2016 11:22 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jun 15, 2016 1:08 PM Flag

    hope.....I shouldn't be able to and may not, but I always say that wherever a stock price is, it can always go at least 5% lower for no reason.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jun 14, 2016 3:46 PM Flag

    Sounds right to me. I think its cause there are more people investing their own money when the direction of the market is up....particularly small caps. The averages havent really moved much of anywhere over the past 18 months. People have placed lots of stock bets and lost. There are tons of momo guys that dont like this flat stuff.

    Anyway...just a guess, could be more to it than that.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jun 14, 2016 11:31 AM Flag

    bought some RFP at $4.80.....I have traded this one over the years, and I thought last quarters earnings and conf call were very good.

    However, personally, I can never tell which way commodity stocks go in the short run. I tend to trade them (or at least a portion of them...like O&G, Ag, forestry/paper, precious and base metals), far more often then my other stocks, and underweight them in my portfolio.

    Thats b/c commodity stocks have two things to follow which make the stocks super volatile. First, there;s the normal busines, how thats doing. Then there's the price of the underlying commodity and which way that is going now and expected to move in the future. There are plenty of guys that just do commodities....and thats great. But for me, its too much of a pain to follow the commodity pricing in detail,and what to expect with pricing short/mid/long term. Just not enuf time with the many other stocks I follow.

    There is an absolutely huge reward when you catch a leveraged commodity biz thats firing on all cylinders while the underlyng commodity pricing is also increasing. Of course the opposite is true too.....bunch of O&G companies with big debt filed for bankruptcy as pricing decreased below expectations.

    best.

  • ....thats up about 55% from my buys. Now I'm not saying it cant go much much higher, but I trade in and out a portion of my commodity stocks b/c of their volatility, plus the fact that I own 40+ stocks, the vast majority non-commodity (precious, base metals, O&G, forestry, ag, etc), and I just dont have the time nor inclination to follow the short term moves of the commodity pricing (or changes in mid/long term sentiment of the underlying commodity). So, I take profits on portions of these stocks far more often then others.

    I'd definitely buy back on any dip to the $1.20's.

    best

  • Reply to

    Excessive heat.

    by littlefishl Jun 6, 2016 9:26 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jun 13, 2016 4:24 PM Flag

    lf....your point is that the heatwave is good for CUO's HVAC division?

    best.

FNHC
19.04+0.11(+0.58%)Jun 30 4:00 PMEDT