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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

fabulouspoodle 27 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 15, 2015 1:42 PM Member since: Apr 7, 1999
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  • Reply to would

    by uptabdowntab Jan 15, 2015 12:44 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jan 15, 2015 1:42 PM Flag

    uptab, I had 60,000 shares and sold 22,000 after the announcement, between 4.13 and 4.29. I have bought a some back today and will buy them all back probably in the short term .

    Why now? Well the $3.50 makes some sense as a trading divvy, and there is some support there. Although without any positive announcement it could certainly go lower (the $3.30's are reasonable).

    Why sell, b/c to me it seemed like there was just huge chance of a selloff, given the slight miss (off analyst estimates) in the Dec quarter, and the March quarter guidance also missing estimates. I want to be in this one b/c I like it longer term, so I'm buying back early just in case.


  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jan 13, 2015 12:45 PM Flag

    IMO, "shipped", in general means delivering to final customer.....and as emory said, revenue is booked.

    If a full container is sent from china directly to a US customer, imo, that means shipped and booked.

    If a container is shipped to the US, (eighteen days).......... then it clear customs (1 day to weeks if customs they inspect your container...chance is very small that happens)....then you get 48, to 72 hour to pick up the container from the peer (excluding weekends). If that full container belongs to MCZ, and it is to be delivered to multiple entities, then the container is shipped to a MCZ (or mcz sub) warehouse, where it is stripped, sorted, and then repalleted for delivery via trailer. In this case, and imo, these items are not shipped and booked until they are shipped from the MCZ warehouse to the final customer. But I guess it could be booked as a sale out of China.

    If MCZ only gets a portion of the container, then the container is sent to a container freight station from the pier, where it stripped and sorted, and picked up LTL from there by MCZ...after customs clearance. And imo, these items are not shipped and booked until they leave the MCZ warehouse. But I guess it could be booked as a sale out of China.

  • scott, I bought around $24 several times, and have as much as I need. I think next quarter will be strong (beat estimates), and the following two quarters should be very very strong and easily beat the estimates out there.

    Relative to the other Florida insurers, I dont think all investors understand that FNHC earnings dropped last quarter because their reinsurance expense went up so dramatically.....but that's because their organic growth rate is far far far greater than any of their competitors (HCI, HRTG, UVE, UIHC). Therefore they are the only one that actually had to add a very large chunk of reinsurance which hit their earning dramatically last quarter. Plus, they are more conservative than their competitors, so I believe they pay for more reinsurance then competitors...which means they are a bit less risky when bad weather hits.

    But this December quarter, just like last year, their growth rate will add new policies (and revenue) against a reinsurance expense that is now fixed for the next three quarters. More in q1 '15, more in q2 '15.....which will lead to expanding earnings. Of course, while the December quarter seemed very quiet weatherwise, their is always a small risk that they had some insurance hits...or some other one time negatives. The March and June quarters are virtually always quiet with respect to weather. So seems to me, in the short term (looking out eight or so months)....things look really good for FNHC.

    And thats not even looking at the obvious positives that Monarch will add to the earning front in just a short while.

    FNHC looks to me to be the best value by far relative to its Florida insurer peers.


  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jan 12, 2015 10:09 AM Flag

    jbear, I think FNHC discussed Monarch margins in their conf call (with slide presentation) a while back, but off the top of my head I cant remember, other then I believe they said Monarch margins are expected to be equal or slightly better than FNHC's current book of business.

  • FNHC expects their Monarch's joint venture written premiums as follows:

    q1 '15 = $650,000
    q2 '15 = $1.3 million
    q3' 15 = $3.25 million
    q4' '15 = $6.5 million
    q1 through q4 '16 to average $13 million per quarter or $52 million for full year 2016.

    FNHC owns what, I think 42% of Monarch, so Monarch should have a significantly positive effect on FNHC's earnings in less than one year. And, if I recall correctly, FNHC is a 42% owner of the joint venture PLUS they will receive additional management fees from the JV for operating the business....another source of revenue and profit.

    I am very impressed at how quickly this venture will directly lead to nice increases in FNHC's bottom line.

    Direct from the 8k, " is currently anticipated that Monarch will start writing premium during the first or second quarter of 2015. It is currently anticipated that Monarch will write approximately $650,000 in premium during the first quarter of Monarch's operations, approximately $1.3 million in premium during its second quarter of operations, approximately $3.25 million in premium during its third quarter of operations, approximately $6.5 million of premium during its fourth quarter of operations, and approximately $13 million in new quarterly premium starting in its second year of operations."


  • Reply to

    Love the mobile accessories----Hate the timing

    by nicebooger Jan 6, 2015 8:53 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jan 6, 2015 10:42 AM Flag

    when was it all sold?

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Dec 24, 2014 12:23 PM Flag

    hey micro, I know my position size is nowhere near many of you guys on this board....but somehow I own 263,000 shares of this #$%$. I do actually like the stock here, and look forward to December earnings call. Unless they really f'd up with delayed shipments, I expect a solid quarter and strong year.

    Also like....KINS, FNHC, LEAT, PESI, HTCH, SCKT, FONR, SGMA, AKS ......................also own MUEL, OLNCF, HERO, ANR, LFVN, NAII, AMPG, SPRS, CPSS, UVE, TRT, MKRS, PFIN, CLGRF, MT, RFP, WIZD, SNFCA, PYDS, OCC, HALL, AEY, ARCI, RVM,...............and a few more. Listing is in no particular order.


  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Dec 19, 2014 1:20 PM Flag

    3700 shares at $7.01 so far.

    I saw earnings just after they came out...thought they were pretty strong but stuck my bid in a bit too low. Decided to be a bit more aggressive today just in case. But would add if she heads lower.

    CEO of SGMA remains 'cautiously optimistic' going forward...not a glowing endorsement, but even a small improvement off current earnings would mean that the should fly. If you normalize taxes, SGMA would have made what....maybe .16/share this quarter?

    Decent earnings for a stock valued so cheaply.


  • ...I added just under eight bucks. Made .26 in Sept quarter, estimate is for .28/share in the Dec quarter, strong balance sheet..................should hit double digits soon enuf.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Dec 9, 2014 7:09 PM Flag

    nanocap, that method is illegal. According to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, if a taxpayer buys an identical stock or security within the 30 days BEFORE OR AFTER the sale that creates the loss, then the loss is not deductible..


  • Bruce Simberg, Chairman of the Board, purchases 5,000 shares at average price of $24.15 on December 1, reported on December 2.

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Nov 24, 2014 3:31 PM Flag

    ..they should post a solidly stronger fourth quarter, followed by MUCH stronger quarters in and q2 of '15. They still have by far the highest organic growth rate in Florida insurers, and amazingly, thats without any Citizen takeouts in what, four years? Thus, they also have an extremely high quality portfolio of policies.....and high quality means homes that on average are newer and in more favorable locations than those Florida insurers using Citizen takeouts to grow.

    Personally, while its moved up a lot recently, I still like UVE second most; thats b/c (as I mentioned here months ago) its is a formerly poorly run company that has successfuly turned itself around. They rely less on takeouts then HCI and UIHC....and way less then the new takeout king HRTG. UVE has culled poor quality policies out of their system over the past two years (thus their flat to negative growth rate) and are finally starting to grow.

    Enuf about UVE. FNHC has a very strong management team which has somehow combined insuring conservatism (high reinsurance and no takeouts) and a very high growth rate. We cant look forward, but looking rear view it is pretty obvious the management has made all the right decisions over these past for years.

    The positives are we basically know the next three quarters will be very strong. The September quarter was clearly going to be weak because of the enormous increase in reinsurance expense that hit starting July 1. But now, we have a flat reinsurance expense on a forward qtrly basis (it will go up in December, to a lesser extent, but then completely flat in March and June); while FNHC should continue to increase policies each quarter leading to three sequentially better quarters.

    So, I think FNHC could make for a nice mid termish (maybe over nine months) trade. And if she heads a bit lower, it seems like an even better opp to add.


  • Reply to

    WOW .....9 Cents!!!

    by chessman954 Nov 14, 2014 8:10 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Nov 18, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    hey grayble3, BDR purchased 'Drake' in February of 2012, not 'last year'...and the one year period after the closing anniversary was over a year and a half ago. So at this point, BDR's sales growth is 100% orgainic and zero percent due to any acquisitions.

    So right now BDR is definitely an organic high growth story.

    And yup, BDR management is old. The CEO is 84 years old....he probably doesnt do much and has gotta retire soon. He makes around $550,000...probably $650,000 all-in. So even carrying that heavy stone around their neck, they still made a some point he leaves and noone needs to replace him; so that just adds to the bottom line. Plus, if a company was interested in acquiring BDR, they could kick him out, and maybe one or two other high paid 'elderly' out....and those big paychecks would turn to pure profit. Might make for a pretty attractive acquisition. Dumping the CEO's salary alone would add about .10/share to yearly earnings.


  • Reply to

    Level 2 manipulation

    by xwallstcfo Nov 17, 2014 11:54 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Nov 17, 2014 1:38 PM Flag

    Its legal to hide the bid. I can hide the bid with my broker...I can or have a 100000 share best offer, but only show 100 on the bid. Just call your broker and ask them. Its not a conspiracy and perfectly legal.

    This is one of those boards where lots of people seem to watch every single trade. Maybe thats not a good thing.


  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Nov 14, 2014 3:26 PM Flag


    I thought KINS earnings were very strong. Made .26 vs .21 estimate, and guided for continued growth. The analyst should be raising his estimate for the Dec quarter soon.

    And remember they would have done much better without the big losses in auto. While only three percent of their policies, that section gave them huge losses. Seems like they lost about .05 in earnings after tax from auto. They stated they are getting out of that business..........but in any case they said sequentially auto will get much better, so thats already a nice little add next quarter.

    With their nice sequential growth, maybe they can make around .28 - .32 next quarter.

    Anyway I liked the earnings and conference call. Didnt buy any today, but I have a very large position already. Still, I may add a few more next week if it hasnt moved from these levels.


  • ..especially considering next quarter should be very strong. Wonder what that guy is buying.

    Very strong support around .40/ heavy if it should get there.


  • Reply to

    WOW .....9 Cents!!!

    by chessman954 Nov 14, 2014 8:10 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Nov 14, 2014 3:07 PM Flag

    best buy was low margin, you can tell since $2.7 million of it hit in the second quarter, then only $1.7 in the third quarter. With the lower sales to BestBuy, margins went up a lot this quarter.

    And they did say that they believe DirectTV negotiations will end soon, and expect several orders in this fourth quarter if that happens. That would be big.

    Plus, we are not sure when the orders will hit...but they mentioned lots of new initiatives which will start soon. So even if q4 is not as strong, '15 should have some huge quarters.

    And then there's that mandate the discussed where everyone has to go digitial by September '15.....they said they expect loads of orders due to that.


  • Reply to

    Holding the break over 1.70 well...

    by mandrlane Sep 3, 2014 6:47 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Nov 14, 2014 11:27 AM Flag

    gands, you seem to hate this stock. Complaining that you didnt sell on every huge move upwards. Well here's another opp to sell......plenty of volume, and you can get $1.80 right now, thats more then Peter or the CEO got.


  • ..December should be a strong quarter, but geeze, 2015 is gonna be a blockbuster with all the new products. luvs me some LEAT.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Nov 10, 2014 10:55 AM Flag

    The special dividend was .13/share last year, so it is being increased by .02/share this year (about a 15% increase).

27.59-0.18(-0.65%)Jan 23 3:59 PMEST

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