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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

fabulouspoodle 47 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 26, 2015 12:35 PM Member since: Apr 7, 1999
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  • ...In the CC q&a they stated that $3 to $3.5 million in sales were pushouts from q3 that they mentioned would occur back in the Sept quarter earnings conf call. Even if you ex out the earnings from those sales, RCKY would have beaten by a lot. And the second actual earnings, easily beat the second half estimates.

    Also from the CC, they expect another solid year of growth in 2015. Their expectations are for gross margins to remain stable, SG&A to increase moderately, and "earnings to increase much faster than sales".

    Later in the Q&A section, the CEO stated RCKY expects five to seven percent revenue growth in '15. He then stated that even if they get five percent revenue growth, they should be able to leverage that to twenty percent earnings growth. Thus, you gotta expect that a 7% increase in revenue would lead to a 28%+ increase in earnings. Seems to me their are estimating 20% to 30% increase in earnings for 2015.

    Tangible book is around $13.47/share...pretty strong (the negative is RCKY does carry more inventory than most competitors). As per Yahoo's industry browser, the 'apparel footwear and accessories category carries an average p/e of 27.6, and an average price to book of 7.10. (not sure if the link works,but here: http://biz.yahoo.com/p/321conameu.html ) Now, I'm not saying RCKY should carry those valuations, but it sure make it seem that RCKY has plenty of room to increase its market value and share price. And it really points to what a great value RCKY would be as an acquisition even at far higher prices.

    Now, the caveat is that these these guys have been more wrong more than a few times with their forward estimates. But no matter what, RCKY is cheap right now given the info we have.

    best.

  • Reply to

    If 4q15 comes in breakeven or worse...

    by microcaptrader Feb 7, 2015 12:58 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Feb 8, 2015 5:11 PM Flag

    Uptab, last year in q4, MCZ had a $1.7 million dollar operating loss, and a $1.9 million dollar loss before taxes. The only reason their net loss was close to zero was because of a $1.64 million tax benefit in the quarter. So, my scenario of a $750,000 operating loss would require much improved margins, gross profits, expenses etc on a lower revenue base....maybe $18 - 19 mil.

    In any case, its a relatively small loss, .01/share, nothing earth shattering and it would still be a big improvement over years q1 operating loss.

    And its all about the second half of fy '16. CEO stated that he expects big improvements in sales in next December earnings vs the one they just posted. If MCZ can do that, they have now have the operating leverage to turn increased revenues into large profits......I mean if you ex out the one time effects in q4 (for exchange losses and additional air shipping expense), MCZ would have made .02/share in the December quarter, on only $30.5 in sales.

    best.

  • Reply to

    If 4q15 comes in breakeven or worse...

    by microcaptrader Feb 7, 2015 12:58 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Feb 7, 2015 11:31 PM Flag

    I'm basing the $750,000 or greater loss in q4 by that exact quote. He said they won't return to operating profitability in fy '15. Through nine months they have an operating profit of $652,000. A small operating loss for '15 would be $250,000 ....which means they'd have to have an operating loss in q4 of around, $900,000.......add interest expense and a few more bucks to that for loss before taxes, then add back your tax credit due to the loss.............and you're around a $750,000 net loss.

  • Reply to

    If 4q15 comes in breakeven or worse...

    by microcaptrader Feb 7, 2015 12:58 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Feb 7, 2015 7:35 PM Flag

    micro, in the conf call, they did guide for a loss of what, at least $750,000 in q4, so it certainly won't be a surprise.

  • Reply to

    Horrible report!

    by microcaptrader Feb 5, 2015 4:06 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Feb 5, 2015 4:30 PM Flag

    .....the saving grace is the tight cost controls leaves MCZ solidly profitable even at just thirty million in sales. Still, report is junky......I really have no idea where the share price will go over the next few weeks, except to say that in the past the early panic sellers on MCZ misses have lost out on far better exit opportunities, and this time MCZ price is pretty low to begin with. We''ll see soon enuf if thats wishful thinkin'.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Feb 4, 2015 3:44 PM Flag

    miser, there are tons of institutions, funds large investors that can buy at the current price, imo that is and has always been a red herring. I mean there are lots of stocks priced under a buck which move up strongly.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Feb 4, 2015 3:38 PM Flag

    uptab, re "I'm just not convinced that any revenue and/or EPS number in the 35 - 50mil and/or .02 to .10 will make any difference to how MCZ trades."

    and you're basing that on how MCZ traded over the past few months?

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Feb 4, 2015 2:41 PM Flag

    uptab, I would buy at least 500,000 additional shares if they were available near today's price if I knew that info.

    I mean imo, the only way it wouldn't go up given that info would be if this were an industry that was dying....for instance there was a company that made non photo chemicals a bunch of years back that posted those kinds of numbers on decreasing revenues for a long time.

    Seems to me lots of investors are expecting disastrous numbers with a poor outlook, based on some competitors in the space that have already reported poor numbers plus a history of unexpectedly poor earnings; couple with the possible negative one time effects of West Coast port problems, and foreign currency.

    best.

  • Reply to

    QTR might be just so-so

    by truth8360 Feb 2, 2015 10:19 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Feb 4, 2015 9:55 AM Flag

    After the great June quarter, the stock price almost doubled after earnings to $1.90, then investors sold it all the way back to one dollar, $1.00. Those sellers certainly didn't know anything since the September quarter turned out super strong, and the stock nearly tripled off those lows just a few weeks later after q3 earnings were announced.

    Anyway, who knows about this quarter,all we know is that 2015 should be super strong, and guidance next quarter for 2015 should be great.

  • Reply to

    BDR prospects

    by fabulouspoodle Feb 2, 2015 10:54 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Feb 3, 2015 5:25 PM Flag

    Ym OT

    I think you can add KINS here, although I havent yet. The reason for the dip, imo, is the two recent big snowstorms where KINS provides coverage (mostly in the areas around NYC, like Long Island and Westchester). So March earnings will be effected by damage related to those storms. December quarter was pretty clean, except KINS provideds some insurance coverage in the Buffalo area....and there was that huge snowstorm in the late fall there...so I still believe that December's numbers will be very good.

    Anyway, some years you have bad winters....thats the risk. But after the March quarter, KINS should again start pounding out quarter after quarter of super strong earnings.

    I had a buy order in at $7.50 that didnt hit today.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Feb 2, 2015 10:54 PM Flag

    Looks like their seasonally weak March quarter could be real strong with big orders form DirectTV...and more orders should follow throughout the year. They also said that later in the year, in the June and September quarters, there should be large orders for digital equipment as its the last chance to convert before companies are fined.....they said their are still lots of servicers that need to fully move to digital. And there were a bunch of other opportunities that they expect to come to fruition in 2015.

    And at the end of BDR's commentary on the CC BDR COO Bob Palle said that they expect improving sales and results in the future.

    So whether BDR has a good or great q4, it looks like 2015 should be real strong for this very profitable yet under book value company.

  • Reply to

    QTR might be just so-so

    by truth8360 Feb 2, 2015 10:19 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Feb 2, 2015 9:52 PM Flag

    Looks like their seasonally weak March quarter could be real strong with big orders form DirectTV...and more orders should follow throughout the year. They also said that later in the year, in the June and September quarters, there should be large orders for digital equipment as its the last chance to convert before companies are fined.....they said their are still lots of servicers that need to fully move to digital. And there were a bunch of other opportunities that they expect to come to fruition in 2015.

    And at the end of BDR's commentary on the CC BDR COO Bob Palle said that they expect improving sales and results in the future.

    So whether BDR has a good or great q4, it looks like 2015 should be real strong for this very profitable yet under book value company.

  • Reply to

    Earnings Release

    by westnash1 Jan 26, 2015 9:38 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jan 30, 2015 8:45 AM Flag

    westy, i'm certainly no expert, just an experienced guy, and if I may be a bitforward, just want to tell you that I think you may be sliding ever so slightly down the slippery slope of losing your sanity.

    Again, only and opinion, I'm not an expert.

    My advice would be to step away from your desktop....take a breath of fresh air.......then yell "I'm mad as He!! and I'm not going to take it anymore!".....next step would be to actually go outside and talk to another human. If you don't know what to say, I recommend Marshawn Lynch's line...just step up to somebody (maybe the postman) and say, "..you know why I'm here..".

    best.

  • Reply to

    Question about shorting

    by norwalkron Jan 29, 2015 12:03 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jan 29, 2015 12:38 PM Flag

    Norwalk, if the company is bankrupt and delisted, the 'shorter' doesnt have to do anything. However, their may be a delay in being able to use that money freely until the broker writes off the loan.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jan 28, 2015 11:52 AM Flag

    uptab, I dont think I'm that nimble....I did have a bunch of trading shares, so I stuck a couple of orders in before the open..a few cents above the $3.50 bid and they ended up hitting.

    Of course when you do that, you can always be wrong, and the stock could tick up over $4 with your sale being the low. You just have to be comfortable with your investing style so you dont get too frustrated when things dont go your way.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jan 28, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    hey uptab, if you're responding to my post, I also said
    "uptab....yup, back half of fy could be very strong. CC started out a bit blah, but the Q&A was great, CEO really started to show his optimism...and the potential for OIS, according to the CEO, is pretty dramatic."

    The negative was they missed thieir estimate. The street was expecting $69.6 million revenue, and eps of negative .13/share, and HTCH lowered both. You can argue that 10% YOY is solid, but its a miss on expectations.

    Anyway, I sold some of mine (15,000) into what I thought was the gift bid over $3.53/4 near the open, and I' m already looking to back half of that b/c I luv HTCH's future beyond next quarter.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jan 28, 2015 9:12 AM Flag

    just to balance, flip side is that next qtr is disapointing.....

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jan 28, 2015 9:07 AM Flag

    uptab....yup, back half of fy could be very strong. CC started out a bit blah, but the Q&A was great, CEO really started to show his optimism...and the potential for OIS, according to the CEO, is pretty dramatic.

    best.

  • Reply to

    added just a bit more at 7.10

    by hopeful200 Dec 18, 2014 12:04 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jan 27, 2015 11:01 PM Flag

    mrkory2002, isnt much of the currency problems abated by the fact that most of SGMA's output takes place in its factories in Mexico (and some in Asia)?

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Jan 27, 2015 4:28 PM Flag

    decent quarter, made .12, guiding for around .16 next quarter on a sequentially flat to downish sales number, they do sound positive going forward, but they always do.

    I guess its about as expected. Personally, I was hoping that they'd guide a bit higher, but the from what I've seen it just seems KTCC takes longer to ramp up new customers then others. I mean, I guess I thought they could convert the purchase of CDR (or whatever they are called) into earnings faster, after all, they did take on a bunch of debt to make the acquisition.

    Anyways, I expect the same old stuff from the conf call....optimism on lots of new customers ramping up. With no news, I think KTCC could trend a bit higher to next earnings....maybe a trading range of $8.00 to the low or even mid nines on the mild optimism.

    I'd add if it goes to the sevens, and will probably hold unless it moves near $10 where I might sell some.

    best.

FNHC
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