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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

fabulouspoodle 47 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 18, 2014 3:47 PM Member since: Apr 7, 1999
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  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Mar 6, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    hopeful, incredible move by ifon since you were buying way back when.

    good luck with it, and hope you dig out a few more gems this year.

    best

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Mar 6, 2014 7:38 AM Flag

    hey hopeful, thats what makes a market!

    Its a very low margin company...and APT will have to ramp up revenues dramatically to really have a major effect on the bottom line. They've been in a construction boom for the past three years, and are seeing some lift to revenues, but with the extremely low margins, the bottom line hasnt budged too much.

    IMO, they should probably try to selll the mask/related business, and focus on construction.

    Why do you like APT alot in the $2.30''s? Seems like more than fair value to me. Right now its probably trading at about a going forward over 20 p/e, imo.

    best.

  • ....on investment in stock warrants. Plus taxes were a bit lower this quarter. Earnings were decent. The problem with APT is they need to expand margins to get to the next level in earnings, really ramp up sales.

    I imagine next quarter's revenues will be hurt a bit by the tough winter weather.

    I think you sell into a rally tommorrow based on the .04 number, and buy back at two or less if possible.

    Anyway, thats my thinking.

  • ..stocks around.

    Trades at $2.90, made .11 fully taxed for the quarter, tangible book at what, $4.00/share, they say things are going strong. They have very large institutional investors. This thing could just as easily be trading at $6.00.

    best.

  • Reply to

    Just a Fantastic Quarter for FNHC...

    by fabulouspoodle Feb 28, 2014 11:09 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Mar 4, 2014 10:38 AM Flag

    scott,

    I was just about to post, but s12stocks answered it. FNHC could bump up the divvy by a small amount; but they think its a better investment to utiize all cash on hand to fund their tremendous growth. And as long as growth continues at a strong pace.....with the associated rise in earings per share and share price, then I agree with FNHC.

    Of course they should revisit that question as soon as growth stabilizes to some normal level. At that point, they should be able to raise the divvy dramatically.

    best.

  • Reply to

    Rumors

    by ted10054 Feb 28, 2014 9:51 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Mar 4, 2014 10:13 AM Flag

    aware, MSN has tangible assets greater than its market value; plus a relatively recent history of strong profits. Sure, they are in a tough period now after the loss of a big account, but they have shown that a new account or two could lift them back to a level where they were making .40/share just a year + ago. Won't happen in the next quarter or two, but the potential has already been proven....and could certainly happen with the help of the right new management.

    And of course a purchaser would be able to dump the two largest salaries of MSN (which totalled about $1 million in compensatoin for '13) and replace with cheaper, and probably better, management.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Mar 1, 2014 9:00 AM Flag

    .....averaged in a bit under $32.

  • Reply to

    Rumors

    by ted10054 Feb 28, 2014 9:51 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Feb 28, 2014 11:35 AM Flag

    re: 'its a layup that $3 or higher will be required to win the Company'

    From your lips to my wallet, god bless.

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Feb 28, 2014 11:09 AM Flag

    ...despite the large secondary offering during the quarter and subsequent share count rise (about 60% this qtr), they were still able to grow earnings sequentially by a good chunk......46/eps for the qtr.

    Growth was fantastic...no other FL based insurer (maybe any insurer) comes close. Net premiums grew 76% and gross premiums grew 104% year over year. Net Income grew from $4.3 million to $12.7 million for the full year. Policy count grew from 61,102 on 1/1/13 to 116,401 on 12/31.

    Even more important, in the CC they stated that growth continues to be storng on a forward looking basis. They added another 17,000 policies in January and February of this year...and think the 3000 new policies per week can continue.

    The above growth was 100% intrinsic; they added no policies from Citizens...which is kind of amazing. Whats left in Citizens are overall lower quality.....older homes, with many in the 'three county area' that take the hardest hits from hurricanes. I believe they stated that only 17% of FNHC policies are in that area despite their large popluation.

    FNHC (and UIHC in an earlier conf call) stated that it looks like the reinsurrance market will be good for them once more.....I believe they said they expect rates on a equal policy count basis to be down over 5%, maybe closer to 10%....although most carriers will use the depressed price to increase their coverage.

    Because of the lower costs, mostly due to reinsurrance and in FNHC's case due to the higher quality of their policy portfolio, they are actually requesting a 1/10 of one perc
    ent rate decrease from the State of Florida this year. In comparison, UIHC has requested a 4% rate increase.

    And FNHC is STILL the CHEAPEST Florida insurer based on it price to book tangible book basis....despite FNHC having the highest growth. FNHC is around 1.7 price to book, while zero growth UVE trades at a 2.7 price to tangible book, and HCI trades at a 3.4 price to tangible book.

    best.

  • Reply to

    I've added some around .80...

    by fabulouspoodle Feb 24, 2014 11:34 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Feb 25, 2014 5:59 AM Flag

    pj, I've actually been in and out of this thang since late '06, early '07, when it was picked up by some decent traders on Ihub, and littlefish started posting about it on this board. Some big percent swings over the years.

    hope al is well in Lost Wages.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Feb 24, 2014 11:34 AM Flag

    Earnings have been very strong, made .09 in their December (first) quarter, after earning .32 for all of last year. Trades way under tangible book. Of course their shareholder friendliness is still questionable at best. If the first quarter pr means AYSI has decided to report quarterly again, then this should trade higher. I ont see why AYSI cant break over a buck prior to next qtrs 'hopeful' release date......so even for a trade it makes sense.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Feb 22, 2014 8:39 AM Flag

    at a bit under .40.....while I dont expect positive earnings every quarter, but with their investment in growth....I do expect strong revenue increases which will be leveraged to a strong eps in the mid-term.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Feb 22, 2014 8:35 AM Flag

    at around $6.60. Think it has a good chance for another strong earnings report.

  • nicely into earnings. Compared ot competitors UVE and UIHC; FNHC has super high growth, and a very low price to tangible book. Dilution will take down earnings a bit this quarter due to the cash raise, but they needed money to fund future growth.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Feb 12, 2014 10:08 PM Flag

    Nice move since earnings....up what, over 50% now. Next quarter has been a seasonally weaker one, although the comp should be an easy beat...earnings out in a mont or so. Be nice if this coul run into earnings, and lighten up some just prior.

    best.

  • Reply to

    Back to KTCC for a minute...

    by microcaptrader Feb 7, 2014 12:27 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Feb 8, 2014 11:54 AM Flag

    I think in this biz its almost easier to build from scratch. Just try to find a large space....their are many facilities in the Juarez/Reynoso where KTCC is.....and then stick in the equipment you need to manufacture for your particular companies. Thats what Foxconn did a few years back. Plus, KTCC's facilities are probably way too small for a large EMS company. And, as bf mentioned, KTCC's space is already full. So if a CLS or JBL bought KTCC, they wouldnt be able to bring any new customers in.

    If KTCC had a specialty that another EMS player wanted in on, like Medical, or Defense, or whatever, I could see another EMS player with a need in that area buying KTCC. But KTCC is just a general player in the field....lots of varied customers.

    best.

  • Reply to

    Back to KTCC for a minute...

    by microcaptrader Feb 7, 2014 12:27 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Feb 7, 2014 3:32 PM Flag

    I think margins will probably decrease some if the mix continues away from the two larger customers and towards to many smaller customers. If those larger customers bounce back some (as the CEO had incorrectly forecasted two and three cc's ago), then profitability will jump.

    I think its a buy for a trade around these levels, or maybe a bit lower. I don't own any at the moment. KTCC has been a buy in the nines and a sell before earnings for many quarters....I've done that a few times and may do it again.

    And I dont understand why KTCC viewed by many on this board as a very attractive buyout candidate. I mean at these levels its a possibility, but imo, no more than any decent value stock.

    best.

  • Reply to

    oh the humility....

    by pullinup Feb 3, 2014 5:53 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Feb 7, 2014 3:13 PM Flag

    "Between December 17, 2013 and December 19, 2013, WPCS International Incorporated (the “Company”) received conversion notices to issue an aggregate of 4,153,179 shares of its common stock, par value $0.0001 per share to six investors upon the conversion of $827,000 of principal face value secured convertible notes issued December 5, 2012. The shares were issued pursuant to the exemption from registration provided by Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

    As of the close of business on December 19, 2013, the Company had 5,711,848 shares of Common Stock deemed issued and outstanding."

    So WPCS issued 4.15 million shares to satisfy $827,000 of debt, at .20/share. Those debtors got a pretty good deal. They may have dumped all of it by now (not sure if their were restrictions), but that was, and still could be a decent amount of sell pressure.

    best.

  • Reply to

    sec 4 coming insider buys

    by joey71440 Feb 7, 2014 9:09 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Feb 7, 2014 9:18 AM Flag

    Joe, next quarter should be very #$%$ as well.

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Feb 7, 2014 9:06 AM Flag

    they would have made about .02 or .03 after tax ex the inventory charge and normalized for taxes. Thats still a very big miss, imo, with most people thinking they should make .05 - .09.

    He said that orders were still very slow, so it looks like the March qtr will be poor. And I dont think the June qtr will be anything special. Obviously...there hopes are for the rebound in December of '14. IMO, its not a given. But then the share price reflects a lot of that.

    So, I'm probably gonna hold......my position is small. I'd add, but it would have to go to around .30 or less.

    best.

FNHC
19.87+0.25(+1.27%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT

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