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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

fabulouspoodle 35 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 19, 2014 11:49 AM Member since: Apr 7, 1999
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  • ....super entertaining, yet sadly all what you said was true. Great job letting management and the board know what they really should be thinking about.

    best part (I am paraphrasing...transcript not out yet):

    in response to LTF gutting the CEO's and boards performance....the CEO says almost exactly whats he said in the pr, "Our history has shown that when the consumer shows up in the stores, our products sell-through well" said Jim Bazet, Cobra's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer."

    LTF: "I hate when you say that....I really hate when you say thtat........"

    CEO: Well, its true that when the consumer shows up...yada yada yada

    LTF: I hate when you say that, you gotta stop saying that #$%$......

    CEO..gets #$%$ off.....

  • I added at the $10.40 open....and would add more if she drops below that.

  • Reply to

    Canslimmers WELCOME !

    by smaycs4 Jun 5, 2014 1:01 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jun 6, 2014 7:59 AM Flag

    keyes_fred,
    Two Short Risks (amongst others)
    1. Margin Call - the Broker can require you to increase your total funds in an account as a short position grows to cover additional risk.

    2. Forced Buy-ins - (sounds like this is what happened to you, and as mentioned by smaycs4). The broker can call for the return of shares at any time, unilaterally, and you must buy those shares in the open market and return them to your broker. If you dont do it, the broker will do it themselves.

    This often happens at inopportune times such as when the share price is increasing and the original share owners (who you borrowed from) want to sell and grab profits. Although its happened to me in the opposite case where the share price was falling extremely fast over a short period of time.

    best

  • Reply to

    Bad report.

    by longtimefollower May 1, 2014 4:41 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 2, 2014 7:49 AM Flag

    fred, they've reported poor numbers for a bunch of quarters now. I dont think anyone knew much. Longs are betting a turnaround begins each quarter....against the odds, but it has been a decent bet based on risk reward. Is it still a decent bet? Probably, based on the CEO's comments it does look like sales will start to rise sometime in the back half. Flip side is each qtr HTCH's asset base shrinks some.

    best.

  • Reply to

    Insiders Dumping

    by pshore42 Jun 2, 2014 11:11 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jun 2, 2014 12:13 PM Flag

    Insiders have been excercising options, and then selling...for the most part they've ended up with the same number of shares they started with. Stock certainly has gone up a lot (and the S-3 was filed a little while ago).

    Positive is that the June quarter should be super strong. No storms.....reinsurrance exp will be up, but growth should make up for that.

    Like you I took some off at higher prices. Seems a bit late to sell right now. I mean its more of a buy at these levels. imo.

    best.

  • Reply to

    more excuses and delays

    by a_happy_poet Jul 17, 2014 5:16 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jul 18, 2014 2:59 PM Flag

    hey commandor, I agree with your thoughts. This purchase allows them to get near that $100,000,000/qtr sales mark, while retaining their 'North American based' manufacturing niche. And and as management stated in the conf call, just as more biz continues to flow towards Mexico, now some of that biz is moving to the US. So the trends are with them.

    And the now have an inside opportunity to lever all these North American Based new printed circuit board clients, by offering full EMS, engineering, plastic molding and metal fabrication, assembly services, etc. And its an accretive purchase even without any of this new universe of sales opportunities (if you believe them).

    Of course it all depends on management, and their ability (along with their sales team) to pull of these new customer wins over the next three years. If you believe management is weak (like 'poet'), then this won't help.

    As for smaycs question regarding their non answer to how accretive this will be; I agree with algo41 that would only be available after they've completed their dd. Unfortunately, knowing KTCC, I'm not sure if they'll ever give a set quantitative figure on that.....more likely it'll be a qualatative adjective.

    Anyway, overall, I like the acquisition.

    best.

  • Reply to

    MERS Continues To Spread and is Deadly

    by sharm3333 Apr 27, 2014 11:38 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Apr 27, 2014 12:14 PM Flag

    unfortunatest ly, mask sales make up less than, thats less than 7% of APT's sales, so even if you had the biggest MERS pandemic in history, it would at most add what, maybe three or four cents to APT's annual earnings per share.

    You need to find a company whose sales in infectious disease relatied mask products is a significant part of their sales, not the 6.7% that APT has.

  • Reply to

    Mers

    by crshrig Apr 25, 2014 12:06 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Apr 25, 2014 8:43 AM Flag

    crshrig, Mask sales account for only a total of 6.8% of APT's total business. If Mask Sales went up 50% next year (which is unlikely), that would add what, about three or four cents per share in earnings for the entire year, or a penny a quarter. The mask biz is almost inconsequential to APT's growth.

    This company is far more levered to how its building product business performs.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 1, 2014 4:17 PM Flag

    Hey timetime222, regarding your question, "Where can I find some bad investments like you?", You might try looking up your own #$%$ h@le. I think you'll find plenty of #$%$ up their.

    good luck.

  • Reply to

    MERS Continues To Spread and is Deadly

    by sharm3333 Apr 27, 2014 11:38 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Apr 29, 2014 11:43 AM Flag

    Sharm333, you are aware that in 2010, one year after the Swine Flu scare, APT's largest supplier of masks stopped supplying APT. They decided to sell direct to end markets and become a direct competitor to APT. Since they supplied APT, I would thing the are able to supply the same masks cheaper, in greater quantity, and faster than APT is able to.

    Thats why APT's mask sales been cut in half since prior to 2010.

    Even in the worst case during the past dozen years, the scare of 2009 that you mention, mask sales went up 200%. If that happened now, mask sales would reach 18% of total sales. And profit, in that worst case scenario, would go up .16/share for the year, or .04/quarter.

    But right now, and during any normal conditions, mask sales are only 6.8% of APT's total sales.

    best.

  • and made a penny with the one time gain on investment. Its difficult for these guys to lever these small sales increases to the bottom line...with their main driver, housing, doing kinda blah and not expected to be a big driver going forward, I am not sure if they will be able to increase profits in their biggest segment in 2014. Hard to tell from a pr with no conference call. APT needs housing to pick up big time.

    Their infectious control biz (masks, etc.) was blah as well. They say competitive pressures are forcing them to reduce prices some which is hurting margins; "The gross profit margin was negatively affected by a decrease in the Disposable Protective Apparel segment margin, due to competitive pricing pressure in the marketplace."

    I followed my advice from my post after last quarter pr, and bought back in under two bucks after selling into the spike. Dont see any real reason to add any now, and of course, gotta sell into any spike due to pumping about MERS or whatever, which has led to zero increased sales and profits in the segment...and is only a tiny bit of APT's biz.

    b

  • Reply to

    avg premium up for policy holders

    by rp614 Jun 2, 2014 12:32 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jun 2, 2014 4:24 PM Flag

    Not true. FNHC is not raising policy costs, while others, such as competitor UIHC, are raising their prices. FNHC is taking market share from their competitors at a rapid pace. And all policy's are not up on June 1st for FNHC. That's just dumb. Renewal date depends on when the policy started.

  • Reply to

    OT: **** New Stock Contest ****

    by bottomsupinvestor May 27, 2014 3:15 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jun 4, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    uptab, do you still own aci, or have you switched into anr b/c of its strpnger balance sheet in these funky times for coal?

  • Reply to

    Russell 3000

    by kmmoose00 Jun 14, 2014 7:11 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jun 14, 2014 10:33 AM Flag

    specifically, they were both added preliminarily to the Russell 2000 index. I mentioned earlier on both the FNHC and UIHC boards that they would be added. Its based purely on market cap....both are pretty secure to stay in (final is last week in June) unless their share price drops a ton.

  • Reply to

    avg premium up for policy holders

    by rp614 Jun 2, 2014 12:32 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jun 2, 2014 1:04 PM Flag

    Well thats not true. FNHC said in the conference call that they were adding policies in April at their fastest rate yet, near 4000 policies per week! FNHC continues to take market share from their poorer performing competitors.

    best.

  • Reply to

    Refinancing

    by vananr Jun 4, 2014 4:40 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jun 4, 2014 5:52 PM Flag

    if you include all the fees, they are paying close to 12% interest. They may not be going bankrupt anytime soon, but their financing terms were not good.

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle May 15, 2014 5:57 PM Flag

    ..SNFCA makes .01/share on $45.1 million in revenue.

  • Reply to

    Refinancing

    by vananr Jun 4, 2014 4:40 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jun 5, 2014 8:19 AM Flag

    look...I think its a positive.But yes, I take all fees in to account when comparing interest rates if Iborrow money, I think thats normal...so to me, its closer to 12% (including the yearly fees of $10,000, and initial fee, etc).

    And jeeze, while I think TPCS should move on the news, its not a good rate. What are you talking about 11% is way way above average for a business loan. Makes you sound just like a pumper.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jun 9, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    scott, re: " How many seasons have had little or no insurance claims in Florida? Maybe 5 or 6. The odds are now against us, in terms of this coming season."

    This is not meant as a recommendation to buy or sell. But the National Hurricane Center has came out with their hurricane forecast for '14 last week, and they said they expect a lower than normal number of hurricanes forming in the Atlantic this year. Of course last year the forecast a higher than normal, and we got bubkas, so they aint right all the time.

    Also, the probability that a hurricane will occur is basically a memoryless function. In other words, if there are ten straight seasons of no hurricanes, the probability of a hurricane in the following season remains unchanged. Just like if you flip a coin and get heads nine straight times, the tenth time you flip it, the odds are still 50% for heads, and 50% for tails.

    best

  • Reply to

    Hey there bargainhunter, haven't you

    by uptabdowntab Jun 19, 2014 12:48 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jun 20, 2014 4:16 PM Flag

    uptab, looks to me from Yahoo's earnings estimates that those estimates have fallen recently. Am I wrong?

FNHC
23.21-0.11(-0.47%)Jul 23 4:00 PMEDT

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