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Emmis Communications Corp. Message Board

fabulouspoodle 96 posts  |  Last Activity: 15 hours ago Member since: Apr 7, 1999
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  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle 15 hours ago Flag

    .... what a great move off the $1.30 level not that long ago.......

  • My largest position is usually somewhere between 8% and 15% of my portfolio.

    I guess having a large number of positions is more work, but its what I do full time, so no problem for me. And it may cut down on returns (compared to if I went more focused). Flip side is it lessens the risk.

    I've been doing this full time for about 10.5 years. During that time I've had one year with negative returns, in 2008, but my loss was only about 3% vs a much larger loss for the market. I've easily beaten the returns of all major indices (R2, SP, DOW, NAZ) every year. I think a large number of stocks in the port helps.

    Plus, I dont know what I'd do all day if I only owned a few stocks. Just sitting and staring at quotes all day would drive me crazy. Plus, when you do that, you tend to find much more 'manipulation' and weird trading patterns (that actually mean nothing) then their really are.

    best.

  • Reply to

    Look at who is not selling...

    by hopeful200 May 23, 2016 12:46 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 24, 2016 2:37 PM Flag

    Micro, I'm long NAII, and added in the low twelves. I like it a lot, decent sized position for me. The positives are fairly obvious and have been stated here.

    Of course there are some negatives....the Borg position has been discusses here often. One other negative is that NAII's sales are highly concentrated to one customer, with over 40% of sales. Nothing wrong with that, in some ways its good (probably cheaper to sell to one huge customer that a bunch of smaller ones). However, it does add risk, and imo, and that means a somewhat lower p/e to me.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 20, 2016 1:19 PM Flag

    gotcha. rules is rules. some color on the 'owners'...CUO is in essence controlled by some of the wealthy Gidwitz family, who made their fortune by starting and then selling Helene Curtis cosmetics.

  • CUO is a Construction Product, dealing in concrete (with their own quarries) and HVAC company. It is just turning around now. Trading at just under $15 ('ve been a buyer around $15 and would average down if she heads lower). Tangible Book about $25/share. And the balance sheet has little debt which is unusual for a cement and/or hvac company.

    Turnaround started in the December qtr. They just posted .32/share in the March qtr, which is by far their seasonally weakest....first profit in q1 since 2000. Gross Margins are trending higher. I estimate CUO will earn between $2.20 and $2.70/share in '16.

    There has been a big jump in concrete prices which bodes very well for CUO going forward. And their HVAC segment is turning around as well. Just firing on all cylinders.

    The positives are obvious....so what are the negatives?

    The execs control 70% plus of the shares, the float is nil....float is under 300,000 shares. So you can get some weird trading. Plus its a regional business.

    Littlefish on the CUO message board knows the company very well.

    best

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle May 20, 2016 10:38 AM Flag

    ..at $5.90. I like this LA insurer, still trading way under book value, and I think they will post their first profitable quarter in a long time for the June quarter. And if the H-cane season aint too bad, then PIH should do real well.

    best.

  • ..on the selling due to the offering. Its an r59 pick. N He's pretty smart.

  • ...super speculative, who knows if they get their act together, and the Mexican operations sure look awful in terms of collections....those could hurt. Nevertheless, it has shown some big moves on news in the past...anything positive at all and it moves up 50%. Of course it has risk as well.

    Looked like they were making progress, and then messed up this quarter...we'll see if they return to that positive path next quarter.

    best.

  • Reply to

    If anyone still cares, here's my guess for Q4

    by norwalkron May 18, 2016 10:59 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 19, 2016 8:37 AM Flag

    xw, companies that lose money can certainly be undervalued. However, saying that anything below a six million dollar loss for MCZ would be an earnings beat is setting the bar at curb level.

    best.

  • Reply to

    If anyone still cares, here's my guess for Q4

    by norwalkron May 18, 2016 10:59 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 18, 2016 7:44 PM Flag

    micro re: 'restricted cash is to pay back fanus loan'........yup..

    '(4) Restricted cash
    Cash accounts that are restricted as to withdrawal or usage are presented as restricted cash. As of December 31, 2015, the Company had $5.8 million of restricted cash held by a bank in deposit accounts. This amount represents payments from customers into restricted bank accounts on December 31, 2015 that were subsequently automatically swept to repay borrowings under our bank loans.'

  • Reply to

    If anyone still cares, here's my guess for Q4

    by norwalkron May 18, 2016 10:59 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 18, 2016 6:45 PM Flag

    wow, you think better than a $6 million dollar loss is a beat??????

    MCZ stated that they estimate about three million in restructuring charges, which amounts to lets say a $1.8 million charge after taxes. So you think if MCZ loses another $4.2 million, which is over an additional six million on a before tax basis, then they beat???

    They should easily do better than a .06/loss per share. And thats not saying much.

    How low the bar has fallen. Wow.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 18, 2016 9:39 AM Flag

    Geeze Littlfish, you really called this one... CUO has lots of potential imo,

    ....I had bought some in the twelves, but decided not to chase in thirteens...how silly was that. Added yesterday in the fifteens after you mentioned on ih.

    best.

  • Reply to

    KTCC

    by hopeful200 May 16, 2016 12:28 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 16, 2016 1:35 PM Flag

    I agree with the two of you. With what looks like solid forward growth, low current valuation, high tangible book/share, an .08/share gimme in added earnings due to the closing of the Ayreshire facility, Royce just about done in dumping a ton of shares.....KTCC looks like a good buy.

  • Reply to

    It's like the market isnt even open...

    by microcaptrader Apr 22, 2016 1:35 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 13, 2016 12:41 PM Flag

    In the deep value arena, I've been a buyer of PIH, in fact I pickd up another 10,000 shares today, after loading at at slightly lower prices the past few months. PIH is a LA prop and Cas insurer. They got killed by Tornado's and hail in the March quarter, and other crazy weather events in the qtrs before that. Catastrophic events have hit that area way more than it has on average in the past. They should post their first profitable quarter in June in a long time....and there shouldnt be any bad weather events this qtr. To understand the going forward potential, just look at their operating income for the quarter. Trading 25% below tang book.

    I was a buyer of UUU in the 3.60's and 3.70's the past few days.

    Bought ESOA yesterday and this morning. Important to note the just reported March quarter is by far their seasonally weakest....could post some strong qtrs going forward.

    I like BOSC if it blips into the $1.90's.

    those are a few plays I like in deepish value.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 13, 2016 12:27 PM Flag

    bf, since Borg was convicted by the SEC of illegally manipulating the NAII shareprice over a ten year period.....a period where he owned at times over 50% of the entire outstanding sharecount without disclosing that fact....Borg and NAII may be prohibited by court action of doing any privately negotiated deals. Or NAII may not want to negotiate a deal with Borg b/c it may be looked at by some, like the SEC, as collussion. But thats just a WAG.

    best.

  • Reply to

    It's like the market isnt even open...

    by microcaptrader Apr 22, 2016 1:35 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 13, 2016 11:49 AM Flag

    half the post disappeared so, I'll redo:
    I've traded SNFCA for ten years. Made lots of money. The positives are obvious. The negatives are...well I'll start off by saying they have three biz segments, Mortgages, Life Insurance, and Cemetery/Mortuary. Mortgages has been the biggest and Life Ins second. Cemeteries a distant third.

    Negatives..first three business segments means hard to understand and lower valuation..Cemeteries is small, wont mention them..

    Life Insurance....the entire sector trades at a super low price to book and price to earnings (just look at major player...like LNC) One reason is b/c the assumptions many of these companies have used to model payouts have come out light. And thats mostly b/c the extended period of very low interest rates have not allowed the returns they expected. Now, SNFCA is in the lowest end of the life insurance biz, basically they insure mostly low income people to simply pay for funeral benefits....its low tech, even door to door sales. Nevertheless its highly profitable.

    Mortgages..again, the entire sector trades a low valuations. SNFCA has made a fortune in this sector, but it has come in some recently due to increases in gov regulations which forces SNFCA to hire more people to deal with them. March qtr is seasonally weakest for Mortgages.

    Since Life Ins and Mortg have so much cash, SNFCA has also invests money in income generating projects, mostly real estate.

    Most investors dont like the yearly stock divvy, cause it just dilutes. In their first conf call last qtr, SNFCA said they preferred to keep it a stock divvy so they could invest back into the company.

    The positives are it trades way under book, and has a low pe But could get cheaper. Heck I was buying this thing at 1/4 tangible book back in the day.

    I have been a buyer recently, but am prepared to average down if need be, after earnings are released (seasonally weak qtr) . Also ready to average up for that matter. best.

  • Reply to

    It's like the market isnt even open...

    by microcaptrader Apr 22, 2016 1:35 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 13, 2016 11:12 AM Flag

    I've traded SNFCA for ten years. Made lots of money. The positives are obvious. The negatives are...well I'll start off by saying they have three biz segments, Mortgages, Life Insurance, and Cemetery/Mortuary. Mortgages has been the biggest and Life Ins second. = ey could use the cash to grow operations. B/C of the mortg and life ins biz, they also make investments...mostly in income producing properties.

    The positives are it trades way under book, and has a low p/e (again, the March quarter may not be so strong....but its hard to tell). Its super cheap, but it could get cheaper, Heck I was buying this thing at 1/4 tangible book back in the day.

    I have been a buyer recently, but am prepared to average down if need be, after earnings are released. Also ready to average up for that matter.

    best.

  • Reply to

    short is walking the pps down

    by rookiepennie May 5, 2016 10:37 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 12, 2016 2:07 PM Flag

    thanx for the response cpa....best o luck.

  • Reply to

    .16 outlook .16 - .21 looks good to me.

    by b_fr_nk May 10, 2016 4:06 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 11, 2016 7:29 AM Flag

    hopeful, I just want to add that I have a sizeable position in KTCC. I have sold zero shares during this past quarter and have added a lot in the seven area.

    I am not short KTCC, I can only benefit if it goes up...my position may not be huge, but it is over 20,000 shares. I have no plans on selling any today.

    In any case, yup, I admit that sometimes I overly focus on the negatives in stocks more than the positives....even those I am actually buying or I own. And while that may sound cautious.... anyone who actually looked at my portfolio would not call it 'cautious'.

    best.

  • Reply to

    short is walking the pps down

    by rookiepennie May 5, 2016 10:37 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 10, 2016 8:40 PM Flag

    cpa, are you long RVP, or have you exited your position (or lightened up a lot)?

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