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Emmis Communications Corp. Message Board

fabulouspoodle 42 posts  |  Last Activity: May 22, 2015 6:46 PM Member since: Apr 7, 1999
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  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 22, 2015 6:46 PM Flag

    zoomlik,I understand the thought behind waiting the March quarters numbers to come out before buying,,,since I know, you know, and everyone else knows the first quarter will be ugly (one or two million dollar loss, and 16.5 - 17.5 in revenue...or something like that)....after all, that's the guidance given by the CEO in February, when 40% of the quarter was already complete.

    But the flip side is everyone already knows that..and the stock has already reacted to that guidance. So sure, there may be some afterhours and early on selling given the shock value of ugly numbers; but even if they turn out to be uglier than expected......So long as MCZ reiterates its current comments that this Company right now is all about the back half and Holiday season, and so long as they reiterate that they expect a strong back half and Holiday season (given RB and other stuff), then investors like me will be sitting at our computers ready to gobble up any shares that are spooked out of traders hands, and any dip is likely to be short lived.

    Now, if MCZ states that the back half doesn't look strong anymore; then yup, its definitely better to wait....but then you'll have plenty of time to buy...or never buy. But that pessimistic scenario seems unlikely from what MCZ has publicly stated, and in fact what they stated publicly at the Riley conference just a week or so ago....of course MCZ has surprised to the dark side before, so anything's possible.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 22, 2015 6:30 PM Flag

    norwalk, the CEO gave guidance for the March quarter in the last conf call. Basically a loss of one million or a bit more.....caused by slow sales. I mean he did give specific guidance by stating they would not be profitable on an operating basis for the year. That means they gotta lose at least one million, could be more. Revenues should be around seventeen million.

    Personally, I dont think these earnings will effect the price much because everyone knows what to expect and it the back half of the year that will effect MCZ's future. So long as the CEO continues to be optimistic about Holiday Season and new product offerings....I think shareholders will be very anxious to scoop up any shares that may appear on the cheap due to the prima facie ugly numbers, knowing the short term outlook is Very Strong.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle May 19, 2015 2:56 PM Flag

    in the low sixes, seems like a strong value.

  • Reply to

    Should go up from here

    by paton May 7, 2015 1:08 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 14, 2015 1:50 PM Flag

    I think the recent weakness is b/c of UIHC's exposure to South Carolina and North Carolina. Tropical storm Ana hit the South Carolina coast directly last week, and then went north into NC. Obviously this is not like a major storm storm hitting Florida, but UIHC has its second largest amount of policies in South Carolina, and fourth most in NC. Not necessarily a severe hit to earnings...like the winter storms that hit Mass, but there should be some claims due to the storm, and some kind of hit to eps.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 13, 2015 6:37 AM Flag

    Can't find a working link either. Whats a 'VGChartz'?

  • Reply to

    This HRTG thing is suuupppperr cheap...

    by fabulouspoodle Apr 23, 2015 6:06 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 8, 2015 8:42 AM Flag

    y.m, KINS will report an awful quarter next week. Its even possible they report a decent sized loss. But the loss should be fully caused by the awful winter weather...KINS (prop and cas insurer) specialized on NY State, particularly Long Island, Westchester, Orange, Rockland counties plus a few other cities like Buffalo. Those areas were hit unbelievably hard by winter storms....including three snowstorms in a row.....the most snow ever.

    However, that really doesnt matter much. You never know about the weather, but that was a one in two hundred year winter weather event............and KINS will probably be around break even. After that (given normalized weather), KINS should start posting .30+ quarters.....quarter after quarter. And they said inthe last conference call that growth should continue for at least the next two years.

    I think KINS is a great buy here.....however, who knows what the earnings reaction will be. I mean KINS already warned they'd be near breakeven due to those winter storms, but a dip on earnings would be another great buy opp. I mean I think KINS is worth between $9.50 and $13.00 on a go forward basis ($9.50 based on a super conservative 1.5 times next years projected book value, and $13 based on a 10 p/e going forward.

    Of course, I've been wrong before, so I could be here.

    good luck.

  • Reply to

    This HRTG thing is suuupppperr cheap...

    by fabulouspoodle Apr 23, 2015 6:06 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 7, 2015 6:44 AM Flag

    Wow, $1.00/share for the quarter....very very solid. And they seem positive about growth going forward. But lets look at HRTG at only a .75/share qtrly performer going forward (25% discount to this quarters earnings). Plug a simple 10 p/e on that and you get a $30 target. And, while HRTG will need to buy more reinsurance for their dramatic growth, which would effect the September quarter; analysts stil have them growing and earning over $3.00 in '16. And thats before they raise up their estimates after this very strong quarter.

    Anyway, as I stated before, seems pretty darn cheap.

  • Reply to

    Really dumping AH

    by dugmalus Apr 30, 2015 4:31 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 3, 2015 8:33 AM Flag

    I'm sure he lightended up in the fours, like many of us. Flip side is I'm pretty sure he bought back way too early and heavy, in the three's, like many of us.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 1, 2015 8:00 AM Flag

    they made .68/share excluding the one time losses related to Monarch. Yesterday was an interesting day, I was able to pick up a bunch of shares in the 27's and flip them out a buck higher later in the day....good day to trade.

    The conf call should be interesting.

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Apr 30, 2015 7:22 PM Flag

    good news is that I sold one third of this shlop at $2.80 a few days ago. Bad news is I still own two-thirds.

    I'll buy back the one third for a nice trade. Did the same thing about a month or so ago. Keep on trading this shlop until maybe one day itll head higher. Maybe...one day.

    In the interim, SVing TRade.

  • Reply to

    wazzup wit dis big big early move?

    by fabulouspoodle Apr 29, 2015 9:45 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Apr 29, 2015 10:13 AM Flag

    hey algo...while management is entrenched with good salaries, you can always have a non-hostile takeover so long as the head honcho and a friend or two are offered guaranteed employment contracts.

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Apr 29, 2015 9:45 AM Flag

    ....was RCKY thing mentioned in a newsletter? Or are there some buyout rumours?

  • ....seems like a no brainer short term trade with very little risk (again thats short term). Don't see why HRTG can't get to $25.....they should make over .70 next quarter and around three bucks/share going forward.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Apr 22, 2015 9:24 PM Flag

    fortunately, MCZ already guided for a loss of over a million bucks, so that big losses should already be built into the price. And, as has been said by others, next quarters is MCZ's historically weakest quarter and well prior to the huge expected year end build up...so its virtually meaningless.

  • Reply to

    I am shocked...

    by b_fr_nk Apr 17, 2015 10:23 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Apr 22, 2015 1:18 PM Flag

    re: "Right on right on right on. Sounds like the only people buying are the people on this board. Who you gonna sell to?"

    ...I'm pretty sure you'll be on the bid, you_so_silly, when this thang finally hits its high, so if I get real lucky, I'll be dumping them on you.

    best.

  • Reply to

    Exceedingly low volume on this news.

    by turn_turn_quasar Apr 21, 2015 9:49 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Apr 22, 2015 8:43 AM Flag

    I luve updtab's confidence...simply does not waiver in good or bad times. Plus he's smart and offers quality insights.

    Now, does that uber confidence/optimism make hit the best investor? Who knows. But I bet he does better than 90% of us jabberheads.

    Keep 'em coming uptab.

  • Reply to

    I am shocked...

    by b_fr_nk Apr 17, 2015 10:23 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Apr 22, 2015 8:36 AM Flag

    I picked up around 400,000 under .40 myself in recent weeks myself...

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Apr 17, 2015 4:29 PM Flag

    micro, thats where I get my loss of one million or so for March quarter. They dont expect operating profitiablity in '15, means they expect at minimum a $700,000 operating loss in q4 (that would give breakeven operating profitablilty for the year). Since thats the lowest loss they could have, I would expect more like a $1.2 million operating loss. Taking into account interest expense, and a positive tax effect on the loss...and you should have a loss of a million+.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Apr 17, 2015 2:14 PM Flag

    micro, they already gave guidance that they will lose near one million in the March quarter. I doubt any rebound is expected before the second half of calendar year 2016. However, if they do need to raise funds at some point, the recent share offering provides MCZ with a better opportunity to borrow funds in the future (rather than a stock offering).

    All imo. best.

  • Reply to

    Volume is NIL across the board...

    by microcaptrader Apr 16, 2015 11:56 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Apr 16, 2015 9:05 PM Flag

    hopeful, there's no machine bs going on here, imo. Its real people with real orders, for good or bad. I've put orders in at .3671 which have hit for some shares recently (including today). Why .3671....no real reason...its somewhat arbitrary, no harder to place the order at that price than any other...I decided I'd add if it went under thirty seven cents.

    IMO, too much studying individual trades or daily trading patterns leads to weird and often unjustified conspiritorial conlcusions....just like trying to get too much info out of a chart............or tea leaves for that matter.

    Look, I know you've been a successful trader, so whatever works....there are plenty of people who have made more money than me in ways I dont fully understand. But lots of people stick in four digits on the bid and ask.

    Hope all is well....both in life and market.

    best.

EMMS
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