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Emmis Communications Corp. Message Board

fabulouspoodle 64 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 49 minutes ago Member since: Apr 7, 1999
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  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Sep 15, 2014 1:05 PM Flag

    ...around $12.85 on the fall in response to the southern Florida storms. We're over halfway through hurricane season, and after the storms clear in S Florida, there's nothing on the horizon weatherwise, so we got a week or two of worry free weather.

    UVE should post strong numbers, and from the sounds of their latest pr, it look like they may be turning things around and returning to growth......since their reinsurance costs are set till next June (and are pretty low), any growth should be amplified in the bottom line.

    We'll see how the rest of the hurricane season goes....but you gotta like their 'return to growth' comments after several years of flat to negative policy growth.

    best.

  • Reply to

    Rouleau's history--a galaxy far, far away

    by keyes_fred Sep 3, 2014 8:24 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Sep 4, 2014 8:57 AM Flag

    Well one thing we do know is that Rouleau has done far far better than his much much younger predecessors. And while each individual may be different, many 75 year old guys now are fully capable of doing what was expected of a 60 year old person just twenty or thirty years ago.

    I have no position in TUES either way....I certainly wouldn't buy any here. But to base a short case on the hope that the CEO's mental capacity is heading downhill 'cause he just turned 75. is pretty weak imo. Grasping at straws. Unless you can point to some actual examples of his weakened behavior. Even if he has only two good years left, well that's a long time stock wise.

    best.

  • Reply to

    Apparently, earnings don't matter these days

    by hopeful200 Aug 7, 2014 2:34 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Aug 8, 2014 6:29 PM Flag

    hey hope, I added some at $2.22 after earnings.....I thought earnings were solid. Progress in both segments for the first time in a while. Sure, this mini-move may be b/c of ebola (as nfpcomp states)....but its also possible that some want to get in b/c of the strong quarter APT posted, and the decent prospects of a strong(er) September quarter.

    If APT could somehow pull off a straight-laced five or six-cent Sept quarter, then APT should head straight to three. And if more investors start believing that APT's prospects are high...due to what appears to be APT taking market share in their building products segment while at the same time turning around the long dormant protective gear segment...then APT could head up towards three in the next month or two.

    And with APT, you never know when or if some scare, like ebola (or the more mundane avian flu's and influenzae) , will bring the momo's in to chase the ask up to whatever level, whether APT benefits financial or not.

    best.

  • ...heck, their were people buying right after last quarters earnings release as high as $4.35 based on what COBR said the back half looked like; and the success of their new offerings. What is that, 15% below tangible book. And that's heading into the Sept and Dec quarters where analysts estimate COBR will make a total of .44/share. If that estimate is a good one, you'd think COBR would've been over five bucks in within five months.

    Unless of course something has severely changed in the only thirty days since their optimistic conference call. Unfortunately, with COBR, that's a distinct possibility.

    Anyway, giving what we shareholders know right now.......$4.30 is a lowball buyout. I'm amazed COBR management went for it.

    And, Momomay is commencing their tender within ten days from now....sounds like they know they got a good deal, and want it closed quickly, before any other suitors get a chance to make an offer.

    Point is, this is one piece of $h!# deal.

    best.

  • Reply to

    Not sure what happened yesterday

    by tclevenger327 Jul 30, 2014 7:20 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jul 30, 2014 7:51 AM Flag

    FNHC may bounce back strongly. Its is imo the best run of the Florida prop and casualty insurers, with I believe the best reinsurance coverage, and an excellent overall control of expenses while at the same time expanding dramatically.

    So what were the negatives? My guess is the following 'negatives' sent FNHC down (and again, it could bounce right back up):

    1. Seems this is a common reaction after strong earnings amongst all Florida insurers, a scratch your head sell-off, and then an eventual rebound.

    2. Along with earnings, FNHC announced a $40 million secondary offering. Lots of people sell automatically at the notice of any stock offering and wait till it prices to reenter. Plus, FNHC just had a large offering around seven months ago, so that's two very close together. The good news is its not that large, and their growth is still very strong....so it makes sense that they have to fund growth and their Monarch initiative coming up in five months.

    3. In the CC they announced that Florida approved a 3% RATE CUT for federated. I mentioned in recent posts that I thought rate cuts would be a trend going forward, due to huge sector profits and more competition entering the market. 3% is not huge, but its not trivial.

    4. In the CC the CEO discussed the current reinsurance rate increase, and stated that reinsurance expense is increasing from 17 million per quarter to 30 million going in the coming third quarter. He really didnt make clear (this is my understanding) that 1/3 of that increase already took effect in q2...so its really an increase of $8 million plus for q3 compared to q2 (my understanding anyways). That is still a big increase. He also said the third quarter is in general their slowest growth quarter.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Oct 15, 2014 4:01 PM Flag

    ....and look forward to being ridiculed by Westy. I can only hope that I reach a level where he can sarcastically label me as some great investor, like Icahn or Buffet. While I certainly haven't yet earned Westnash's utter disdain (despite trading RCKY for many many many years), I would humbly request the moniker, 'Nasgovitz'.

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Sep 12, 2014 3:40 PM Flag

    ...around $2.30. In the pr, and more so in the Conf Call (transcript avail at seeking alpha), the CEO sounded optimistic that both of their segments would improve in the next several quarters (particularly Telco near term).

    I just think its a good risk reward at 2.3x, even if they break even, the stock wouldn't go down much. If they can make around .05/share, I think it would head towards three bucks. And if it makes around .07+/share, it could head over $3.50.

    best.

  • Reply to

    Last 1/4 cash flow was about $90 million...

    by keltus1952 Sep 23, 2014 2:35 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Sep 24, 2014 9:24 PM Flag

    The fact that SFY has been actively trying to sell some of its large properties for over a year with no takers may say something about its 'Intrinsic Value'. There have been plenty of property sales by other energy players during this period, at decent multiples.

  • Reply to

    Last 1/4 cash flow was about $90 million...

    by keltus1952 Sep 23, 2014 2:35 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Sep 24, 2014 9:54 AM Flag

    ...yet they can't even afford to spend their planned capex....and their debt somehow goes up every quarter.....and noone seems to want to buy the properties they have had for sale for the past year......

  • Reply to

    5% Down On 55K Shares

    by twitter_trader Sep 26, 2014 10:38 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Sep 26, 2014 11:11 AM Flag

    disagree, its reasonable to expect at least a small degree of selling in response to the s-3. Not many sellers actually. But there are no buyers right now so the share price falls a bit.

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Oct 1, 2014 9:48 AM Flag

    ...I bought a very small starter at .54 a short while ago, and added 27,000 shares this morning. So I got 35,000. Still a very small position....I might add. Not sure I agree with much of what is stated on the board. As an outsider non-owner, it didnt surprise me that MCZ fell to the mid fifties.....I mean operationally MCZ hasnt done well in a long time, and in my opinion the earning pr's and quarterly filings really didnt say all that much positive.......except they seemed to have decent management of their cash. Unfortunately, operationally, management seems to be failing, and this same management has been failing consistently for a while.

    I just think the company is worth more......although there is certainly risk. Re the s-3.....to much to speculate on to have any idea of why. Given MCZ management's track record, you hope it aint for a non accretive and messy acquisition.....I dont have faith that management could pull it off.

    The hope would be that if necessary, they'd only use a portion of it. And hopefully that would be to finance growth.

    I may have said some negatives here, but at this price, just seems risk reward is pretty good. Heck, a return to .60 gets you more than a fifty percent return.

    best.

  • at these levels. I bought a few of this fallin knife at $9.60. Trading at what, less than 1.2 times book; they sounded positive in last quarter's CC. Should have a decent quarter. Competitor PCCC just reported a strong quarter....and PCMI trades at much lower multiples. I think PCCC trades around 1.8 times book, vs PCMI;s 1.2 times book. PCCC trades at a way higher p/e then PCMI. I dont see the big reason for that.

    Earnings on Thursday, so we'll see soon enuf.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Jul 29, 2014 2:09 PM Flag

    ...maybe March was just an aberration, June is very strong, and backlog grew some.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jul 31, 2014 3:16 PM Flag

    pretty #$%$ guidance for the remainder of this year though. By my calculations, SFY expects production to drop a bunch in q3 and q4. Check my numbers, but SFY stated that production was 2.94 MMBoe in q1, 3.45MMBoe in q2, and the estimate for q3 is 2.82 MMBoe, and the estimate for q4 is 2.69MMBoe. Plus, they estimate lease operating costs to increase abut 33% from q2 to the second half of '14. Please check my numbers.

    best.

  • ....but picked up a few at $19.46 premarket.

  • Reply to

    Where is everyone?

    by hweb2 Aug 14, 2014 2:53 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Aug 15, 2014 8:40 AM Flag

    everyone is buying this premarket!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Reply to

    Horrible Secondary offering

    by s12stocks Aug 1, 2014 9:54 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Aug 1, 2014 10:41 AM Flag

    s12, they really didnt have a choice. The stock was in the $19's yesterday, so pricing at $19.50 was very reasonable, imo....not much of a discount to current price. They really couldnt do it in the past three weeks because they had to wait for earnings to come out. And problem right now is they really cant wait since we're in hurricane season, there's always a chance for a hurricane or two, which could have sent the price even lower. And we know these guys dont like taking much risk.

    Maybe if they waited a few more weeks they have gotten $21 or $21.5/share....but that could go the other way too. If they were able to get $21.25, they'd have 167,000 fewer sharesissued in the offering. Not nothing, but not too significant either.

    best.

  • Reply to

    Apparently, earnings don't matter these days

    by hopeful200 Aug 7, 2014 2:34 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Aug 10, 2014 12:22 PM Flag

    Wonderful to hear about the addition to you family!!!

    I've actually heard of CONX and their test kit before, from another strong investor a couple of weeks back. I looked them up quickly, but never followed up. You know, busy looking up so many stocks,especially referrals from others....hard to keep up. Anyway, I'll look further.

    On the recommendation front...I dunno. MUEL earnings were strong, I have a position but havent added. KINS (northeast based prop and cas insurer) has earnings in Thursday....if it were to drop to $6.50 or under prior, I'd recommend (and I'd add). There are others but dont want to clog up APT thread with Off-topic stuff. Certainly lots of earnings coming out on the micro's next week.....should be fun.

    best

  • Reply to

    well, i'm impressed..

    by fabulouspoodle Jul 29, 2014 8:11 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jul 29, 2014 12:21 PM Flag

    I didnt get the feel it has anything to do with Canadian housing. My understanding, from the conf call, is that Monarch is being set up because at the moment, FNHC accepts only a small percent of the policies its agents offer to FNHC....I think they said 12%, but not 100% sure. Monarch, will be a prop and casualty insurer just like FNHC specializing in Florida policies, but Monarch will be set up to accept a slightly 'riskier' profile, which in turn means it will charge a higher rate than Federated. I like it because it will allow FNHC through Monarch to accept another type of business, and their agents will be happier b/c more of the policies they send to FNHCwill be accepted.

    I think its a good move for FNHC, but I dont think its a gamebreaker or anything. Wont start till 2015, and I'm sure part of the reason for the secondary they announced today is to fund Monarch.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Aug 22, 2014 1:12 AM Flag

    ....hasn't moved much at all yet in response to their expected growth, and guidance. Listen to the Conf Call...skip to the last question in the Q&A....amazing.

    Just a few days ago, analysts moved up their estimate for the next two quarters to .21/share for September, and .26/share for December. I'll say the obvious....that's pretty cheap for a fast growing seven buck stock.

    And management stated in the conf call that due to their strong balance sheet (and cash raise six months back), they won't need to raise any cash in the next year plus...which is always a bit of a worry for growing property and casualty stocks.

    Insider buying continued from lower levels into the mid sixes, and now continues again in the low sevens. Reminds me of the constant insider buying in FNHC from under five bucks into the low twenties.

    Still not much risk yet built into the stock price. I mean sure, you can always have a bad quarter due to a bad storm or two...but that would just present another great buying opp. Given estimates of .47/share in the second half of this year, insider buying, strong balance sheet; KINS should move up into the double digits by year end.....and higher in 2015.

    I like KINS a lot.

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