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Emmis Communications Corp. Message Board

fabulouspoodle 47 posts  |  Last Activity: 7 hours ago Member since: Apr 7, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Love the mobile accessories----Hate the timing

    by nicebooger Jan 6, 2015 8:53 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jan 6, 2015 10:42 AM Flag

    when was it all sold?

  • FNHC expects their Monarch's joint venture written premiums as follows:

    q1 '15 = $650,000
    q2 '15 = $1.3 million
    q3' 15 = $3.25 million
    q4' '15 = $6.5 million
    q1 through q4 '16 to average $13 million per quarter or $52 million for full year 2016.

    FNHC owns what, I think 42% of Monarch, so Monarch should have a significantly positive effect on FNHC's earnings in less than one year. And, if I recall correctly, FNHC is a 42% owner of the joint venture PLUS they will receive additional management fees from the JV for operating the business....another source of revenue and profit.

    I am very impressed at how quickly this venture will directly lead to nice increases in FNHC's bottom line.

    Direct from the 8k, "..it is currently anticipated that Monarch will start writing premium during the first or second quarter of 2015. It is currently anticipated that Monarch will write approximately $650,000 in premium during the first quarter of Monarch's operations, approximately $1.3 million in premium during its second quarter of operations, approximately $3.25 million in premium during its third quarter of operations, approximately $6.5 million of premium during its fourth quarter of operations, and approximately $13 million in new quarterly premium starting in its second year of operations."

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jan 12, 2015 10:09 AM Flag

    jbear, I think FNHC discussed Monarch margins in their conf call (with slide presentation) a while back, but off the top of my head I cant remember, other then I believe they said Monarch margins are expected to be equal or slightly better than FNHC's current book of business.

  • scott, I bought around $24 several times, and have as much as I need. I think next quarter will be strong (beat estimates), and the following two quarters should be very very strong and easily beat the estimates out there.

    Relative to the other Florida insurers, I dont think all investors understand that FNHC earnings dropped last quarter because their reinsurance expense went up so dramatically.....but that's because their organic growth rate is far far far greater than any of their competitors (HCI, HRTG, UVE, UIHC). Therefore they are the only one that actually had to add a very large chunk of reinsurance which hit their earning dramatically last quarter. Plus, they are more conservative than their competitors, so I believe they pay for more reinsurance then competitors...which means they are a bit less risky when bad weather hits.

    But this December quarter, just like last year, their growth rate will add new policies (and revenue) against a reinsurance expense that is now fixed for the next three quarters. More in q1 '15, more in q2 '15.....which will lead to expanding earnings. Of course, while the December quarter seemed very quiet weatherwise, their is always a small risk that they had some insurance hits...or some other one time negatives. The March and June quarters are virtually always quiet with respect to weather. So seems to me, in the short term (looking out eight or so months)....things look really good for FNHC.

    And thats not even looking at the obvious positives that Monarch will add to the earning front in just a short while.

    FNHC looks to me to be the best value by far relative to its Florida insurer peers.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jan 13, 2015 12:45 PM Flag

    IMO, "shipped", in general means delivering to final customer.....and as emory said, revenue is booked.

    If a full container is sent from china directly to a US customer, imo, that means shipped and booked.

    If a container is shipped to the US, (eighteen days).......... then it clear customs (1 day to weeks if customs they inspect your container...chance is very small that happens)....then you get 48, to 72 hour to pick up the container from the peer (excluding weekends). If that full container belongs to MCZ, and it is to be delivered to multiple entities, then the container is shipped to a MCZ (or mcz sub) warehouse, where it is stripped, sorted, and then repalleted for delivery via trailer. In this case, and imo, these items are not shipped and booked until they are shipped from the MCZ warehouse to the final customer. But I guess it could be booked as a sale out of China.

    If MCZ only gets a portion of the container, then the container is sent to a container freight station from the pier, where it stripped and sorted, and picked up LTL from there by MCZ...after customs clearance. And imo, these items are not shipped and booked until they leave the MCZ warehouse. But I guess it could be booked as a sale out of China.

  • Reply to

    Fascinating...it would

    by uptabdowntab Jan 15, 2015 12:44 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jan 15, 2015 1:42 PM Flag

    uptab, I had 60,000 shares and sold 22,000 after the announcement, between 4.13 and 4.29. I have bought a some back today and will buy them all back probably in the short term .

    Why now? Well the $3.50 makes some sense as a trading divvy, and there is some support there. Although without any positive announcement it could certainly go lower (the $3.30's are reasonable).

    Why sell, b/c to me it seemed like there was just huge chance of a selloff, given the slight miss (off analyst estimates) in the Dec quarter, and the March quarter guidance also missing estimates. I want to be in this one b/c I like it longer term, so I'm buying back early just in case.

    best.

  • Reply to

    LOL!!! WPCS!

    by b_fr_nk Dec 4, 2014 9:39 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jan 27, 2015 3:45 PM Flag

    I was trying to short that junk in December of 2013......Interactive Brokers (I think the best broker to find shares for shorting) never had any shares to short. Unfortunately thats the way it is with many scam companies spiking up on b$.

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Jan 27, 2015 4:28 PM Flag

    decent quarter, made .12, guiding for around .16 next quarter on a sequentially flat to downish sales number, they do sound positive going forward, but they always do.

    I guess its about as expected. Personally, I was hoping that they'd guide a bit higher, but the from what I've seen it just seems KTCC takes longer to ramp up new customers then others. I mean, I guess I thought they could convert the purchase of CDR (or whatever they are called) into earnings faster, after all, they did take on a bunch of debt to make the acquisition.

    Anyways, I expect the same old stuff from the conf call....optimism on lots of new customers ramping up. With no news, I think KTCC could trend a bit higher to next earnings....maybe a trading range of $8.00 to the low or even mid nines on the mild optimism.

    I'd add if it goes to the sevens, and will probably hold unless it moves near $10 where I might sell some.

    best.

  • Reply to

    added just a bit more at 7.10

    by hopeful200 Dec 18, 2014 12:04 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jan 27, 2015 11:01 PM Flag

    mrkory2002, isnt much of the currency problems abated by the fact that most of SGMA's output takes place in its factories in Mexico (and some in Asia)?

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jan 28, 2015 9:07 AM Flag

    uptab....yup, back half of fy could be very strong. CC started out a bit blah, but the Q&A was great, CEO really started to show his optimism...and the potential for OIS, according to the CEO, is pretty dramatic.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jan 28, 2015 9:12 AM Flag

    just to balance, flip side is that next qtr is disapointing.....

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jan 28, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    hey uptab, if you're responding to my post, I also said
    "uptab....yup, back half of fy could be very strong. CC started out a bit blah, but the Q&A was great, CEO really started to show his optimism...and the potential for OIS, according to the CEO, is pretty dramatic."

    The negative was they missed thieir estimate. The street was expecting $69.6 million revenue, and eps of negative .13/share, and HTCH lowered both. You can argue that 10% YOY is solid, but its a miss on expectations.

    Anyway, I sold some of mine (15,000) into what I thought was the gift bid over $3.53/4 near the open, and I' m already looking to back half of that b/c I luv HTCH's future beyond next quarter.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jan 28, 2015 11:52 AM Flag

    uptab, I dont think I'm that nimble....I did have a bunch of trading shares, so I stuck a couple of orders in before the open..a few cents above the $3.50 bid and they ended up hitting.

    Of course when you do that, you can always be wrong, and the stock could tick up over $4 with your sale being the low. You just have to be comfortable with your investing style so you dont get too frustrated when things dont go your way.

    best.

  • Reply to

    Question about shorting

    by norwalkron Jan 29, 2015 12:03 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jan 29, 2015 12:38 PM Flag

    Norwalk, if the company is bankrupt and delisted, the 'shorter' doesnt have to do anything. However, their may be a delay in being able to use that money freely until the broker writes off the loan.

  • Reply to

    Earnings Release

    by westnash1 Jan 26, 2015 9:38 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Jan 30, 2015 8:45 AM Flag

    westy, i'm certainly no expert, just an experienced guy, and if I may be a bitforward, just want to tell you that I think you may be sliding ever so slightly down the slippery slope of losing your sanity.

    Again, only and opinion, I'm not an expert.

    My advice would be to step away from your desktop....take a breath of fresh air.......then yell "I'm mad as He!! and I'm not going to take it anymore!".....next step would be to actually go outside and talk to another human. If you don't know what to say, I recommend Marshawn Lynch's line...just step up to somebody (maybe the postman) and say, "..you know why I'm here..".

    best.

  • Reply to

    QTR might be just so-so

    by truth8360 Feb 2, 2015 10:19 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Feb 2, 2015 9:52 PM Flag

    Looks like their seasonally weak March quarter could be real strong with big orders form DirectTV...and more orders should follow throughout the year. They also said that later in the year, in the June and September quarters, there should be large orders for digital equipment as its the last chance to convert before companies are fined.....they said their are still lots of servicers that need to fully move to digital. And there were a bunch of other opportunities that they expect to come to fruition in 2015.

    And at the end of BDR's commentary on the CC BDR COO Bob Palle said that they expect improving sales and results in the future.

    So whether BDR has a good or great q4, it looks like 2015 should be real strong for this very profitable yet under book value company.

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Feb 2, 2015 10:54 PM Flag

    Looks like their seasonally weak March quarter could be real strong with big orders form DirectTV...and more orders should follow throughout the year. They also said that later in the year, in the June and September quarters, there should be large orders for digital equipment as its the last chance to convert before companies are fined.....they said their are still lots of servicers that need to fully move to digital. And there were a bunch of other opportunities that they expect to come to fruition in 2015.

    And at the end of BDR's commentary on the CC BDR COO Bob Palle said that they expect improving sales and results in the future.

    So whether BDR has a good or great q4, it looks like 2015 should be real strong for this very profitable yet under book value company.

  • Reply to

    BDR prospects

    by fabulouspoodle Feb 2, 2015 10:54 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Feb 3, 2015 5:25 PM Flag

    Ym OT

    I think you can add KINS here, although I havent yet. The reason for the dip, imo, is the two recent big snowstorms where KINS provides coverage (mostly in the areas around NYC, like Long Island and Westchester). So March earnings will be effected by damage related to those storms. December quarter was pretty clean, except KINS provideds some insurance coverage in the Buffalo area....and there was that huge snowstorm in the late fall there...so I still believe that December's numbers will be very good.

    Anyway, some years you have bad winters....thats the risk. But after the March quarter, KINS should again start pounding out quarter after quarter of super strong earnings.

    I had a buy order in at $7.50 that didnt hit today.

    best.

  • Reply to

    QTR might be just so-so

    by truth8360 Feb 2, 2015 10:19 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Feb 4, 2015 9:55 AM Flag

    After the great June quarter, the stock price almost doubled after earnings to $1.90, then investors sold it all the way back to one dollar, $1.00. Those sellers certainly didn't know anything since the September quarter turned out super strong, and the stock nearly tripled off those lows just a few weeks later after q3 earnings were announced.

    Anyway, who knows about this quarter,all we know is that 2015 should be super strong, and guidance next quarter for 2015 should be great.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Feb 4, 2015 2:41 PM Flag

    uptab, I would buy at least 500,000 additional shares if they were available near today's price if I knew that info.

    I mean imo, the only way it wouldn't go up given that info would be if this were an industry that was dying....for instance there was a company that made non photo chemicals a bunch of years back that posted those kinds of numbers on decreasing revenues for a long time.

    Seems to me lots of investors are expecting disastrous numbers with a poor outlook, based on some competitors in the space that have already reported poor numbers plus a history of unexpectedly poor earnings; couple with the possible negative one time effects of West Coast port problems, and foreign currency.

    best.

EMMS
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