micro,I suppose they are supposed to test their inventory each quarter for any significant writedowns. They probably hoped for a more successful sell through of the old stuff this quarter...and since the holiday season is now over without success in that inventory dumpage, they decided its time to write it down going before entering their slower seasons.
soccer, I've followed them, on and off for over ten years, and have owned SMID a bunch of times. I really liked the optimism of their last earnings call.
re: "By truly shine, I mean $30 per share and $2.50 in EPS. With 3 companies, I fear the best they can do is a $15 stock in 18 months or so"
....from your mouth, to my Bank account.
...with a solid risk reward, imo.
a per their last earnings pr, SMID management seems very positive; they expect strong growth in both the short and long run. You have:
..strong tangible book value...its trading right now at around .85 times tangible book;
..solid,earnings, .06 eps last quarter..not bad for a two buck stock;
..guidance of a stronger quarter ahead despite entering a seasonally weaker qtr..."Our average monthly production at retail dollars during the first quarter was just under $900,000, the average for the second quarter was approximately $850,000 while the average monthly production for the third quarter was $1,240,000 or a 38% increase over the previous quarter. We expect the fourth quarter to have an even higher rate of increase than the previous quarter making the fourth quarter the best of the year";
..and their strong optimism regarding the mid and long term; "The combination of cash on hand, 'Blue Ocean' products, the SMC Lean Initiative, and the end (we hope) of the Great Recession will position Smith-Midland for our most profitable years ever going forward."
I guess the negative would be if the super cold winter hurts them in the short run. Of course that would just make their backlog grow and give them some huge quarters later on. And with the very solid tangible book value and positive prospects going forward....worst case is a small selloff. Best case is a move towards three bucks in the short run, and if SMID management is correct that they are looking forward to their most profitable years ever, then maybe $4+ in the mid term.
hdd stocks definitely live in a weird world. Going way back....I think the the latish 90's, I can remember when Applied Magnetics tried to buy the much bigger Hutchinson. Hutchinson was far bigger in sales, market cap, and everything. Applied Magnetics needed Hutch cause they didnt have the technology required for the future. The huge APM bid (all stock) was ignored by HTCH, and Apm went out of biz a few years later.
Point is, the HDD sub assemblers were considered the dregs of the tech world way back then, and they still are now.
Of course in the case of HTCH right now, its pretty darn cheap...especially if prospects get a bit better as the year progresses.
I didnt see anything specific to cause the big drop near the open.
....made .14/share in q4 on $2.26 million in sales. I was expecting more in their seasonally strongest quarter. On a year over year revenue basis, the q4 '14 was lower than q4 '13, and eps went down sequentially. I believe like in past qtrs, eps is untaxed. So, normalized for taxes, FTDL would have made around .09/share in q4.
On the other hand, they seem very optimistic about their growth prospects going forward, along with improved margins.
In 2011 things went bad, they were losing tons of money....and then they restructured.
2012 was nice for FTDL; 2013 even better so far.
In q1 '13 they made .09;
in q2 '13 they made .10;
and in q3 '13 they made .16.
q4 = ???
Maybe q3 was a bit of an aberration....they stated in the earnings pr that they couldn't guarantee a stronger quarter ahead.....but......the December (q4) quarter has seasonally been their strongest quarter....by far.
In 2012, they went from revenue of $1.85 million in q3 to $2.61 million in q4.
In the September '13 q3 quarter they had revenue of $2.17 million. So we should expect something well north of $2.61 million this quarter, maybe over $3 million. That could generate a lot of earnings....but even if they were only able to match q3's .16/share......that would be a pretty good number.
Just seems that at $3.65/share, FTDL's share price hasn't come close to reflecting the huge earnings progress of the last few years.
micro, Not sure how of your definition of 'total assets'. I'll define my base as all tradeable family accounts, which for me includes all taxable Brokerage accounts, IRA's for myself and my wife, and all UGMA (or whatever they are called) accounts for my kids. I am excluding any bank accounts, or funds not managed by myself (mutual funds etc), and all non-monetary assets.
So, as defined above, I was up about 75% in my accounts. My cash level was probably between 15% at its low, and 40% at its high. I do trade full time. And unlike you, I dont concentrate on a relatively small number of stocks, but have a portfolio of probably around 50 positions at a time.....although I may be dramatically overweight in a small number of positions at any given time.
rosen, I should have said I thought it would be free for EMMS, since they developed the app....I thought their costs would be covered.
And the Sprint fee ($15 million/year) does seem very high....although I admit I have no comps.
as per today's 10q, NextRadio has to pay Sprint $15 million per year, in $3.75 million quarterly installments to pre-load the application on its phones. That money is raised by EMMS and other radio stations.
The first payment was due August 9. EMMS paid $800,000 of the fees, while the rest was raised by other stations. The second payment was due on December 12. $2.2 of the $3.75 was raised by other radio stations, EMMS has paid zero so far, and they owe money to Sprint but are in discussions. They say they believe Sprint is continuing to pre-load the app even though they are 'in arrears', but there are not certain.
I guess I'm naive, but I didnt think EMMS would have to pay significant sums to Sprint, I thought Sprint would add the app for free.
Its all on page 21 of the 10q, Note 5. Significant Events, Next Radio LLC - Sprint Agreement.
I looked kinda quick, so its always possible my understanding of the agreement is incorrect.
First of all, I'm back in as of today at just over .48/share. Last time I bought was just 'bout a year ago. I'm buying the optimism of this being a transitional year via 'console cycle', and even a middle range (or for that matter, even middling range like your $30 -35 mil est suggests) upcoming December quarter will be met with buying on forward optimism.
Secondly, I'm sure you know this, but selling in a taxable account while buying in a non-taxable account; to capture the tax loss while keeping a full position; is not allowed under the tax code. Even if one uses different brokerages. Of course it is probably very common. Theoretically, when preparing taxes for 'wash sale rule' purposes, one is supposes to view all transactions in all taxable and nontaxable accounts as if they occured in one single uber- account.
However, it certainly is very impractical, and I doubt many traders follow this rule.