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Universal Insurance Holdings Inc. Message Board

fabulouspoodle 47 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Apr 7, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Hungary Litigation

    by keyes_fred Mar 24, 2014 10:32 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle 10 hours ago Flag

    If they lose, then they just lose what they have already sunk into it in litigation costs. I certainly dont think winning the lawsuit is built into the share price...I mean who knows how many years and appeals the case could go through.

  • The March '14 quarter average earnings estimate moved up from .37 to .47, and the June '14 quarter average earnings estimate moved up from .36 to .49.

    There are two analysts covering FNHC. The analyst who changed his estimate moved his March '14 quarter estimate up to .59, and moved his June '14 quarter estimate up to .67; and has an estimate of $1.75 for year end December '14, and $2.25 for year end December ' he expects continued growth for FNHC over the next several years. Obviously, if FNHC earns .57 and .67 over the next two quarters as he estimates, with growth, FNHC has plenty of space to move up .

    The other analyst with lower estimates may increase his estimates soon.


  • ...and maybe into the lower $20's where it would be at least closer to fair value relative to its competitors.

    I'm no chart expert, but its sure feels like that.

  • Reply to

    Sure taking their time

    by stokluver Apr 2, 2014 11:08 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Apr 2, 2014 6:29 PM Flag

    well, last year they reported on 4/3. As a foreign company, I dont think they have to report till the end of April.

  • They made .07/share for the December quarter, fully taxed. And tangible book value is $2.34/share, so SMID is not even trading above net assets/share.

    The said that they have increased spending on advertising, marketing, equipment and R&D in 2013, and earnings is strong even with these increased expenses. This spending will continue, but SMID expects to continue to get great returns on these investments going forward:

    "SMC has also increased its advertising budget significantly in 2013 and will continue to do so in 2014 and 2015. This investment is paying off now in the form of the most high quality inquiries for our Precast Products that I have ever seen just as the Great Recession is winding down. This level of inquiries could propel SMC to high levels of production by the third or fourth quarter of 2014 and certainly into 2015 and many years beyond.

    Our R&D efforts are and have been at our highest levels during 2012, 2013, and 2014, bringing what may be our best ‘Blue Ocean’ products ever to market.”

    The March qtr may not be as strong as the rest with the harsh weather, (plus last year they had the presidential innaugaration contract which wont reoccur), but geeze, it looks like they will be able to give great guidance for the rest of the year as the 'record level of inquiries' turn into backlog and sales.

    SMID looks like a good value here.


  • ....not too shabby for a stock trading at $5.50. Trades at 41.66% of its net assets. And since the hotel writedown is included in that number, doesnt look like they have too much left in the way of any big writedowns. Stock is too cheap here.

    Of course if this thang goes down to that $4.60 level (which would be $1.15 pre reverese split) more.

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Apr 2, 2014 12:09 PM Flag

    ...for the quarter they made .03/share from continuing operations, and another .04/share from discontinued operations. Sure, they wont be profitable every quarter, but it looks like the era of big writedowns is over, and we can look forward to more 'write-ups' of assets/loans.

    Oh, forget to mention that VRTA has $3.51 in tangible assets per share. $3.51/share. And the stock is trading at $1.63. Loads of room to move, especially if VRTA decides to buy more of their own stock.


  • ...before taxes. Looks like they had a very large tax benefit. At least thats what I get.

    They made $9,823,727 for the year before taxes, and they made $9,661,427 for the nine month period ending September 30. That means they made $162,300 before taxes for the fourth quarter. With 12,337,663 shares, the made about .01/share earnings before taxes.

    Looks like they had a $1,300,000 tax benefit in the fourth quarter, which is why earnings look much higher.

    But thats just on my quick calculations....please check.

  • Reply to

    Congrats to the shorts

    by smaycs4 Mar 27, 2014 1:09 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Mar 28, 2014 7:31 AM Flag

    Maybe thats one reason why its been pretty strong in the face of what seems like massive short talk here since nine bucks. That is, past management was so bad.....doing things like closing at 7pm, dirty stores, no real internet presence....that new management can make significant yet easy changes to help grow change store hours to match competitors, spend a couple of bucks extra to clean up store appearance, and add usable internet functions.


  • Reply to

    Thanks fabulous....

    by scottr2958 Mar 21, 2014 10:32 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Mar 27, 2014 6:08 AM Flag

    scott, in the short run, FNHC is underpriced relative to its competitors, particulary on a price to book basis. Looking at eps, growth, and price to book (where FNHC is still way cheap)....FNHC would have to go over $20...maybe around $21 to be on par with its competitors, imo.

    Looking forward, FNHC is growing at a very strong pace, way faster than its peers...from whom it is taking market share. Its biggest expense, by far, is reinsurrance. And FNHC (and the other florida P&C insurerers) has stated that they expect reinsurrance expense to decrease a decent amount upon renewal (in late June)....I believe they and others have stated they expect a reduction of five to ten percent on an equal policy count basis. They've also stated that they would use some of that savings to increase their reinsurrance per policy and lower their total risk; the rest of the saving would go straight to the bottom line.

    So, while any single quarter can be funky, looking forward, we can expect more and more policies....each bit more profitable. So, once this works into the system (we will have a bump up in overall reinsurrance since we have so many more policies) lets say Sept and Dec of '14, and even more so in March and June of '15; FNHC should be posting very strong eps growth over the next fifteen months, and that should be accompanied by the share price moving higher. I don't know how much, but just look at how far we've come in the past year or two. Of oourse there are always risks with hurricanes or if the sector becomes out of favor, or whatever. But from what we know right now, things look good.

    On the other hand, Scott, if you wanted to trade a portion of your shares, trying to capture some swings in the stock; or simply lock in some profits (as you noted, FNHC has risen a bunch of its lows like many stocks), well, there's nothing wrong with that.


  • Reply to

    Buying aggressively today.

    by longtimefollower Mar 14, 2014 11:50 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Mar 25, 2014 8:24 PM Flag

    nip, what with all the negativity? Believe it or not, some people like LTF have lots of money because they are excellent investor/traders. Don't be a hater, bro.

  • ...the made $2.39/share on an after tax basis for the December quarter if you ex out the one time large tax gain and the one time LIFO adjustment. Unlike prior quarters, this $2.39 is fully taxed.

    Backlog was up $19.5 million year over year (to $67.4 million from $47.9 million), and up just a tad over the Sept 30 backlog of $67.1 million. Since the backog remains high, we should expect more strong quarters ahead.

    Book Value is at $25.65 per share, another solid number.

    A 10 p/e would take MUEL to $95/share. Just a 7 p/e would double MUEL from its current $33 to $66/share.

    Of course there are only a total of 1,237,591 shares outstanding...probably less than a million in the public float. So if MUEL ever sees some real volume, or catches the eye of those low float traders....who knows where this thing could go.


  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Mar 19, 2014 9:29 AM Flag

    ...Bruce Simberg, Chairman of the Board, buys a total of 5,040 shares in the open market, on Friday 3/14 and Monday 3/17, at prices between $16.07 and $16.65.

    On a price to book basis, FNHC is still far cheaper than its Florida insurer comps.....FNHC would need to rise what, like 20% from current levels to even up with the likes of UVE, HCI, and UIHC on a price to book basis. FNHC has BY FAR the highest growth rate of the group, and the lowest PEG of the group.


  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Mar 18, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    ....under .09/share. In the very shot run, from the guidance they just gave a few days ago (if everything is kosher), seems like they should make a bit over a half a cent for the Dec quarter, which I guess will be announced at the end of the month. Not bad for a stock trading under .09/share. Plus, they state that they expect growth in fy 2014 vs fy 2013.

    So looking for a nice spike after the announcement....maybe up 50% o more from current levels. This thing was at .24 back in septembe on no real good news.

    Of course, there has been a big seller, willing to sell lots around 9 cents. So there is that negative...if the seller actually knows something. But ampg did put out their strong guidance just a couple of days ago....we'll see soon enuf.


  • Reply to

    Math always makes me feel better

    by uptabdowntab Mar 14, 2014 4:32 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Mar 18, 2014 8:37 AM Flag

    Micro, as you say things can change fast. In the shorter term, Gartner is forecasting HDD growth at a rate of 1.8% over the next three years, and ISI something less than that, but not negative. Meanwhile, the average number of heads per drive is rising.


  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Mar 12, 2014 2:59 PM Flag

    pretty solid quarter, especially considering the recent dip in price.

  • Reply to

    earnings out...

    by fabulouspoodle Mar 12, 2014 10:17 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Mar 12, 2014 11:22 AM Flag

    mrkory, its a seasonally weak quarter, sales tend to drop from the Oct to January quarter, just look at the past. sure, they were hoping for a million or two more in revenue, but that wouldnt have effeted the bottom line too much....just look at the margins.

    and the ceo of sgma often says some weird stuff in the earnings reports....sounds like he's not quite so optimistic as he was a quarter ago, but he's really hard to get a feel for.


  • Reply to

    earnings out...

    by fabulouspoodle Mar 12, 2014 10:17 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Mar 12, 2014 10:57 AM Flag

    imo, weather would have effected sales, but the sales number was fine, imo.....problem was on the expense side.

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Mar 12, 2014 10:17 AM Flag I mentioned in my last post, one month ago, great opportunity to sell at least a chunk before earnings. I sold two thirds prior to earnings, and got a small fill at $9+today, so sold a bit over 75%. Question is should you buy back, and when.


  • Reply to

    Looks like somebody learned

    by one_fine_windbreaker Feb 27, 2014 3:19 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Mar 12, 2014 10:01 AM Flag provided everyone with a great short term sell opportunity!

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