....maybe hogryder2000's too broke to buy. Maybe him want stock lower? My experience with other investors tell me hogryder2000 be broke. Skint. Skint to bone. Remember? Hogryder selt MCZ low for buyin other stock high. very high. Hogryder trades his way out of his money. Now want in MCZ but too high for Hogryder.
Hogryder skint. Skint to bone.
dc, reserves for potential litigation have dropped dramatically over the past few years...I mean if your just looking at that, you should be a buyer of SNFCA..........they have made settlements for the vast majority of potential litigation.
Q3 could be a huge quarter.
hey ulp, add me to the dumb money group....I own 600,000 shares right now.
quarter seemed ok, and guidance was good. I realize that guidance includes a higher tax rate than this quarter, still it looks like margins are tightening a bit....probably just the expected product mix and ramping of new customers.....still, be nice if eps guidance was a bit higher.
SMID is very very bullish on the coming quarter,and also bullish on the rest of '15 AND 2016. From their earnings PR..........and the just released 10Q, SMID made a nickel so far, just in the month of JULY, should be a great q3. Just take a look at SMID's comments:
“The company’s most important news today is for the month of July, 2015 (the first month of the third quarter), the company’s net income was almost comparable to the total earnings of the second quarter. Management believes that the third quarter of 2015 will show a significant increase over that of the second quarter of the year.
“The Company continues to receive orders on a weekly basis, most of which will be put into production during 2015 with the remaining orders to be produced in 2016. At this point, we have enough orders to be profitable until the end of June 2016.
from the 10q: "As of June 30, 2015, the Company’s sales backlog was approximately $17.8 million, as compared to approximately $9.6 million at the same time in 2014. It is estimated that substantially all of the projects in the sales backlog will be produced within 12 months"......and
"The Company's expectation for the fourth and final quarter of 2015 is to produce another positive quarter of earnings as a result of our current backlog, making 2015 a significant turnaround over 2014. It is management's belief that the positive quarterly earnings of the 2015 will continue into 2016."
thanks value, so obviously its best to just look at income before taxes (ex any one timers). Still, it seems like the tax situation...even though taxes are a non-cash issue....makes it confusing and less desireable to investors. Do you agree with that.
In any case, I think its a good value, and certainly would add on dips........the Cable TV side is too compelling, and as you mention, the casino deal will bring in additional cash flow and earnings in less than one year.
fieldman, I'm not saying the move by others to add policies o/s of Florida doesnt make sense...it may be the right thing to do. I'm just saying as an investor, I prefer all In Florida (or at least Florida plus a few neighbors). And thats b/c, purely on share price, if a Hurricane hits they all go down, whether yer 98% Florida or 58% Florida. At the same time, you add risk in times when Florida is virtually risk free (like UIHC in the winter an early spring b/c of Massachuettes and Texas). Just easier to trade, imo...obviously thats completely selfish.
Is ASI publicly traded?......I mean my universe is only companies that trade publicly? The only predominantly Florida P&C insurers I know are HCI, HRTG, UIHC, UVE, and HRTG. I do like HRTG at these levels after it got earnings wacked. But their growth is purely from Citizens and buyouts. Do you agree with theory that Citizens policies (at this point) are low quality overall, since they've been picked at for years? And of course, HRTG has even stated in the last CC that they wont be getting much growth anymore from the Citizens pool. HCI looks cheap, and I bought a very small amount when it dipped at $19.51 after earnings....but too teeny to really matter. There are some carriers that have a minority of policies in Fl (like NSEC), but I dont consider those Florida insurers.
Not sure about UIHC' management, just b/c of the past development problems they have had (my term is probably incorrect but I mean older policies that come back to bite them in the butt). However, UIHC has gotten creamed b/c of getting first hit by the worst winter weather in Boston in Years in q1 (even thought its a small percent of total, they got wacked their in winter)....and then the Texas storms/hail/flooding/roof damage hurt them in q2. Seems real cheap to me at these levels. You have any feel about them?
Well, look, I did know that many of his former execs were still running FNHC....didnt know some are relatives. Still, to me, they seem like a conservative outfit...and their growth has a lot to do with their relationship with State Farm, where FNHC gets their Florida leads (or whatever that large ins company is). I didnt get the impression that these growth policies were risky...I mean FNHC has stated that they turn down or cant accept some ridiculous number of potential customers b/c of their risk profile. The Monarch initiative started b/c they have such a huge number of these potential customers, that they needed a second company that could handle these leads at a higher risk adjusted price.
I think they have been the best managed of the FL based Prop and Cas companies over the past three or so years, being far more conservative then others (in quota share), yet able to drive huge growth without having to utilize the Citizens cesspool.
As an investor/trader, I dont like when all their competitors, like UVE, UIHC, now HRTG starting to do it.....make strong strides to add lots of other states. Thats why UIHC got kilt (b/c of exposure to Massachusetts in winter, and then Texas in the second quarter). Now, I'm not saying how they should run their companies.....it may (or may not) be a smart thing to do long term . But I prefer Florida only rather than adding georgraphy, b/c its easy to follow...I know when the storms are hitting, or expected to hit, I know when the season ends,.....sure, you can get kilt holding at the wrong time, but its super easy to trade.
I understand not liking FL insurers as a whole....they've moved up a ton, pricing/competitive pressures, gotta be a storm sometime, as a group they trade a a high price/bk....but I think of the bunch FNHC is well run, price to book is decent, growing faster than the others, got Monarch, and has pulled back.
Anyway, I do consider FNHC as trading material, and not a long term buy.
what really weird is the relationship they have with their two MVP deals. I management runs MVP and Vestin pays them to invest in Real Estate...ok, a little conflict of interest, but as long as they perform. But the real estate or investments MVP has made, and I think they started this relationship two, or maybe less than two years ago......has already been impaired milions and millions and millions of dollars. I mean they just started investing in these properties, in decent RE market, and they get impaired down to zero within a few years? How is that even possible?
I don't own any stock (but have traded it in the past).....but I sure think a real explanation detailing how these impairments occurred in such a short time.....like where this real estate is and why this real estate lost its value so quickly. Vestin should explain this in a press release.
Now, there still is a ton of real value in this stock.....if you ex out management....VRTA/B are worth far more than the share price, I mean it trades at a fraction of book, and there are virutally no liabilities, its all saleable assets and a ton of cash.
IMO, the SEC should certainly investigate VRTA/B for managements practices. It just doesnt make any sense.
micro, DR may be a 'word weasel'. But RB4 vs RB3 pre-order comparisons may be difficult since RB3 wasn't released until November 23, 2011.....much later in the holiday season.
sappy, but that a bit like saying for any mini-micro on the ropes that, 'without that huge contract they just siged. they'd be on the ropes'. But they did sign that big contract.
The CEO said on the conf call that he thought RB4 could bring in revenue over the next four years. Will it really last 4 years....I dunno, but remember, when MCZ did RB3, it was already out for awhile. In fact it came out before the 2010 Holiday Season, and MCZ got its contract with it for the 2011 Holiday Season. So we know that RB 3 produced big revenues for two straight years, and MCZ got it in the slower (but still big) second year.
So, if RB4 produces similarly to RB3, it will provide strong revenue and earnings for the next two years. So to me thats way more than a one-off product.
There's no guarantee, but thats what history tells us.
I like roiak because imo, their their cable tv segment is going strong and they are guiding that it will do better. The long term tv contracts they are signing provides strong and stable cash to pay their large debt load. They just have to fix their radio division....it doesnt have to do all that well, but stop losin the money.
ok....but most companies that have separate divisions are able to have their taxes calculated on a combined basis, right? So in the case of ROIAK, since overall there was a loss, they would not have be assessed federal taxes, at least for the most part.
I appreciate the response saeidrugs.
hey fieldman, on the divvy, I think they've mad it clear that at least in the short term, they weren't going to raise the divvy to anything very high. B/c they are growing much more rapidly then most of the other FL carriers, they need cash/assets to fund that growth. Obviously they also invested a lot of cash in their Monarch initiative, and hopefully shrareholders will start reaping the benefits in additional eps in 2016. Yes, I agree they are very conservative with the cash, and I'm certainly not pro increasing the quota share pecent...but it is only by ten percent, and hopefully that will be the last time they increase it. I think while many of the current execs worked under Lawson.....they learned the hard way that his high risk gambling ways were not good longterm, so they have gone the other way. Going for growth (which they've continue to succeed at) while holding risk down.
Lawson has been out for a very long time at this point....he wasnt even really there his last year or two, he was playing poker on the professional tour more than staying in the office. Its not the name change that has helped the, but the complete change in corporate culture from Lawon's wild west times.
Why do you even bring up Lawson when he hasnt been at FNHC in years and years?
Are you long, short or out? Btw, any of those three options is fine by me.....I dont dislike shorts (unless their obnoxious).