Two Short Risks (amongst others)
1. Margin Call - the Broker can require you to increase your total funds in an account as a short position grows to cover additional risk.
2. Forced Buy-ins - (sounds like this is what happened to you, and as mentioned by smaycs4). The broker can call for the return of shares at any time, unilaterally, and you must buy those shares in the open market and return them to your broker. If you dont do it, the broker will do it themselves.
This often happens at inopportune times such as when the share price is increasing and the original share owners (who you borrowed from) want to sell and grab profits. Although its happened to me in the opposite case where the share price was falling extremely fast over a short period of time.
...heck, their were people buying right after last quarters earnings release as high as $4.35 based on what COBR said the back half looked like; and the success of their new offerings. What is that, 15% below tangible book. And that's heading into the Sept and Dec quarters where analysts estimate COBR will make a total of .44/share. If that estimate is a good one, you'd think COBR would've been over five bucks in within five months.
Unless of course something has severely changed in the only thirty days since their optimistic conference call. Unfortunately, with COBR, that's a distinct possibility.
Anyway, giving what we shareholders know right now.......$4.30 is a lowball buyout. I'm amazed COBR management went for it.
And, Momomay is commencing their tender within ten days from now....sounds like they know they got a good deal, and want it closed quickly, before any other suitors get a chance to make an offer.
Point is, this is one piece of $h!# deal.
FNHC may bounce back strongly. Its is imo the best run of the Florida prop and casualty insurers, with I believe the best reinsurance coverage, and an excellent overall control of expenses while at the same time expanding dramatically.
So what were the negatives? My guess is the following 'negatives' sent FNHC down (and again, it could bounce right back up):
1. Seems this is a common reaction after strong earnings amongst all Florida insurers, a scratch your head sell-off, and then an eventual rebound.
2. Along with earnings, FNHC announced a $40 million secondary offering. Lots of people sell automatically at the notice of any stock offering and wait till it prices to reenter. Plus, FNHC just had a large offering around seven months ago, so that's two very close together. The good news is its not that large, and their growth is still very strong....so it makes sense that they have to fund growth and their Monarch initiative coming up in five months.
3. In the CC they announced that Florida approved a 3% RATE CUT for federated. I mentioned in recent posts that I thought rate cuts would be a trend going forward, due to huge sector profits and more competition entering the market. 3% is not huge, but its not trivial.
4. In the CC the CEO discussed the current reinsurance rate increase, and stated that reinsurance expense is increasing from 17 million per quarter to 30 million going in the coming third quarter. He really didnt make clear (this is my understanding) that 1/3 of that increase already took effect in q2...so its really an increase of $8 million plus for q3 compared to q2 (my understanding anyways). That is still a big increase. He also said the third quarter is in general their slowest growth quarter.
Insiders have been excercising options, and then selling...for the most part they've ended up with the same number of shares they started with. Stock certainly has gone up a lot (and the S-3 was filed a little while ago).
Positive is that the June quarter should be super strong. No storms.....reinsurrance exp will be up, but growth should make up for that.
Like you I took some off at higher prices. Seems a bit late to sell right now. I mean its more of a buy at these levels. imo.
at these levels. I bought a few of this fallin knife at $9.60. Trading at what, less than 1.2 times book; they sounded positive in last quarter's CC. Should have a decent quarter. Competitor PCCC just reported a strong quarter....and PCMI trades at much lower multiples. I think PCCC trades around 1.8 times book, vs PCMI;s 1.2 times book. PCCC trades at a way higher p/e then PCMI. I dont see the big reason for that.
Earnings on Thursday, so we'll see soon enuf.
pretty crappy guidance for the remainder of this year though. By my calculations, SFY expects production to drop a bunch in q3 and q4. Check my numbers, but SFY stated that production was 2.94 MMBoe in q1, 3.45MMBoe in q2, and the estimate for q3 is 2.82 MMBoe, and the estimate for q4 is 2.69MMBoe. Plus, they estimate lease operating costs to increase abut 33% from q2 to the second half of '14. Please check my numbers.
automatic five minute trading pause due to (as traderx mentioned) volatility in trading, code LUDP. a greater than ten percent price deviation within five minutes....
"trading pauses", which are defined as, under NASDAQ, "if a security is subject to a Trading Pause, the Pause Threshold Price field will contain the reference threshold price that deviates 10% from a print on the Consolidated Tape that is last sale eligible as compared to every print in that security on a rolling five (5) minute basis".
s12, they really didnt have a choice. The stock was in the $19's yesterday, so pricing at $19.50 was very reasonable, imo....not much of a discount to current price. They really couldnt do it in the past three weeks because they had to wait for earnings to come out. And problem right now is they really cant wait since we're in hurricane season, there's always a chance for a hurricane or two, which could have sent the price even lower. And we know these guys dont like taking much risk.
Maybe if they waited a few more weeks they have gotten $21 or $21.5/share....but that could go the other way too. If they were able to get $21.25, they'd have 167,000 fewer sharesissued in the offering. Not nothing, but not too significant either.
hey commandor, I agree with your thoughts. This purchase allows them to get near that $100,000,000/qtr sales mark, while retaining their 'North American based' manufacturing niche. And and as management stated in the conf call, just as more biz continues to flow towards Mexico, now some of that biz is moving to the US. So the trends are with them.
And the now have an inside opportunity to lever all these North American Based new printed circuit board clients, by offering full EMS, engineering, plastic molding and metal fabrication, assembly services, etc. And its an accretive purchase even without any of this new universe of sales opportunities (if you believe them).
Of course it all depends on management, and their ability (along with their sales team) to pull of these new customer wins over the next three years. If you believe management is weak (like 'poet'), then this won't help.
As for smaycs question regarding their non answer to how accretive this will be; I agree with algo41 that would only be available after they've completed their dd. Unfortunately, knowing KTCC, I'm not sure if they'll ever give a set quantitative figure on that.....more likely it'll be a qualatative adjective.
Anyway, overall, I like the acquisition.
Wonderful to hear about the addition to you family!!!
I've actually heard of CONX and their test kit before, from another strong investor a couple of weeks back. I looked them up quickly, but never followed up. You know, busy looking up so many stocks,especially referrals from others....hard to keep up. Anyway, I'll look further.
On the recommendation front...I dunno. MUEL earnings were strong, I have a position but havent added. KINS (northeast based prop and cas insurer) has earnings in Thursday....if it were to drop to $6.50 or under prior, I'd recommend (and I'd add). There are others but dont want to clog up APT thread with Off-topic stuff. Certainly lots of earnings coming out on the micro's next week.....should be fun.
hey hope, I added some at $2.22 after earnings.....I thought earnings were solid. Progress in both segments for the first time in a while. Sure, this mini-move may be b/c of ebola (as nfpcomp states)....but its also possible that some want to get in b/c of the strong quarter APT posted, and the decent prospects of a strong(er) September quarter.
If APT could somehow pull off a straight-laced five or six-cent Sept quarter, then APT should head straight to three. And if more investors start believing that APT's prospects are high...due to what appears to be APT taking market share in their building products segment while at the same time turning around the long dormant protective gear segment...then APT could head up towards three in the next month or two.
And with APT, you never know when or if some scare, like ebola (or the more mundane avian flu's and influenzae) , will bring the momo's in to chase the ask up to whatever level, whether APT benefits financial or not.
I didnt get the feel it has anything to do with Canadian housing. My understanding, from the conf call, is that Monarch is being set up because at the moment, FNHC accepts only a small percent of the policies its agents offer to FNHC....I think they said 12%, but not 100% sure. Monarch, will be a prop and casualty insurer just like FNHC specializing in Florida policies, but Monarch will be set up to accept a slightly 'riskier' profile, which in turn means it will charge a higher rate than Federated. I like it because it will allow FNHC through Monarch to accept another type of business, and their agents will be happier b/c more of the policies they send to FNHCwill be accepted.
I think its a good move for FNHC, but I dont think its a gamebreaker or anything. Wont start till 2015, and I'm sure part of the reason for the secondary they announced today is to fund Monarch.
....hasn't moved much at all yet in response to their expected growth, and guidance. Listen to the Conf Call...skip to the last question in the Q&A....amazing.
Just a few days ago, analysts moved up their estimate for the next two quarters to .21/share for September, and .26/share for December. I'll say the obvious....that's pretty cheap for a fast growing seven buck stock.
And management stated in the conf call that due to their strong balance sheet (and cash raise six months back), they won't need to raise any cash in the next year plus...which is always a bit of a worry for growing property and casualty stocks.
Insider buying continued from lower levels into the mid sixes, and now continues again in the low sevens. Reminds me of the constant insider buying in FNHC from under five bucks into the low twenties.
Still not much risk yet built into the stock price. I mean sure, you can always have a bad quarter due to a bad storm or two...but that would just present another great buying opp. Given estimates of .47/share in the second half of this year, insider buying, strong balance sheet; KINS should move up into the double digits by year end.....and higher in 2015.
I like KINS a lot.
Not true. FNHC is not raising policy costs, while others, such as competitor UIHC, are raising their prices. FNHC is taking market share from their competitors at a rapid pace. And all policy's are not up on June 1st for FNHC. That's just dumb. Renewal date depends on when the policy started.
uptab, do you still own aci, or have you switched into anr b/c of its strpnger balance sheet in these funky times for coal?
specifically, they were both added preliminarily to the Russell 2000 index. I mentioned earlier on both the FNHC and UIHC boards that they would be added. Its based purely on market cap....both are pretty secure to stay in (final is last week in June) unless their share price drops a ton.
Well thats not true. FNHC said in the conference call that they were adding policies in April at their fastest rate yet, near 4000 policies per week! FNHC continues to take market share from their poorer performing competitors.