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Zale Corporation Message Board

fabulouspoodle 70 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 29, 2016 11:02 AM Member since: Apr 7, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Borg's at it again

    by hopeful200 Apr 28, 2016 11:46 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Apr 29, 2016 11:02 AM Flag

    same author, but a more detailed and far longer hit. They probably had it ready if Borg was to sell so they could get some action. I only skimmed it....been too busy this morning.

    best.

  • Reply to

    Borg's at it again

    by hopeful200 Apr 28, 2016 11:46 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Apr 29, 2016 10:43 AM Flag

    Hopeful, I'm seeing the hit piece was released this morning at 8:07 AM....its not the same one as two days ago about the patents.....much much longer and detailed. I'm not saying I agree with it. But maybe if you're a SA PRO subscriber you could see it yesterday. I thought it was given 'Must Read' status (by SA), and its a freebie peak at SA's Pro atricles:

    Large Downside Expected Near Term For Natural Alternatives International, Inc.
    Must Read|Apr. 29, 2016 8:17 AM ET|2 comments | About: Natural Alternatives International, Inc. (NAII)

  • I added more at the open today, after adding more last week.

  • Reply to

    Borg's at it again

    by hopeful200 Apr 28, 2016 11:46 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Apr 29, 2016 9:57 AM Flag

    I expected Borg to continue selling. But its also the big short hit piece on SA by the same group from a few days back thats hurting the shareprice.

  • ....and look great for the future. Q2 should be real real strong.....if Interboro is accretive (which it should be considering there are virtually no weather related events on Long Island in q2), numbers should be even better.

  • Reply to

    Reeking Alpha

    by b_fr_nk Apr 27, 2016 6:39 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Apr 28, 2016 7:02 AM Flag

    Weak? It was way less than weak....it was completely meaningless. I know SA makes its money by having longs pump and shorts wack, so you always have to read knowing theirs some (or lots of) bias.....but still, you can get good info and ideas out of some 'articles'.

    But geeze, how do the editors allow such a silly and insignificant piece like this get published. A hit piece saying NAII's press release about some patent was actually done a few weeks after the patent was issued? OMG.

    Woodward and Bernstein they ain't.

  • Reply to

    one thought that keeps popping in my head

    by hopeful200 Apr 26, 2016 12:36 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Apr 26, 2016 2:54 PM Flag

    Personally, I don't think Borg's selling meant much other than the stock went up a ton and he made lots of money...and I also don't think his stopping means much.

    I do think NAII wangled its way up to fair value given the very strong quarter. Not sure who is selling, but I've mentioned in earlier posts that I personally have no feel whether earnings are sustainable which is why I sold. Also why I sold the last time. Now, after I sold last quarter, some wacky crowd sold it way lower....and we were completely wrong last time, earnings came in super strong in a historically weak quarter. Just got lucky that NAII was cheap enuf to buy back. We'll see what happens this time.

    Earnings won't be out for around two plus weeks. Who knows where NAII goes from here, up or down...but if she heads to the tens, I'd buy some back.

    best.

  • Reply to

    Another solid quarter

    by dukbludev Apr 20, 2016 4:09 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Apr 20, 2016 5:24 PM Flag

    ...they just stated in the conf call that they are applying for a NASDAQ listing once the 10k is filed in just a few weeks in May, and then expect to get approval by late June....and then voila, SCKT's NASDAQ listed.

  • Reply to

    Any clues on reasons for the dip?

    by miltonmartin301 Apr 18, 2016 11:29 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Apr 19, 2016 12:46 PM Flag

    bf,

    I trade to make a living, so I need to take profits, and had a sell target around $14 when I bought.

    And at anything over $13, I wasnt going to hold through earnings anyways, so I'm happy no matter where the stock goes from here. I mentioned in earlier posts that I had no strong conviction about NAII's future earnings.

    I cant worry if a stock heads far higher than my target...I need to take profits (or cut losses), and not look in the rear view mirror. I'm content with my trade no matter where NAII goes....I wish they all went like this, quick and very profitable. There are always other stocks to buy. For me, its usually better when I am not too attached to any one stock....although of course that happens.

    Anyway, hope you make a fortune.

    best.

  • Reply to

    Any clues on reasons for the dip?

    by miltonmartin301 Apr 18, 2016 11:29 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Apr 19, 2016 12:06 PM Flag

    I sold 2/3 of mine in the upper thirteens. So I was selling wit you, or maybe earlier.

    best.

  • ..albeit its their seasonally strongest one. Still....been a long long time since they had a profitable quarter.

    I guess some dont like the q4 revenue comp, which was down slightly year over year. But, it probably was a hard comp (and next quarter as well)....because I believe they just introduced their new 'revive brand' in q4 last year, and that was a real big deal for NTZ.

    So, its nice they were able to make a profit even though sales dipped a bit. I've been skeptical on NTZ' ability and resolve to cut costs, but improvements are finally getting to the income statement. And they said in the conf call that they are now introducing these new efficiencies into all their plants, and they also said there was a bit more room to cut costs. So, maybe even lower costs to look forward to.

    Trading at $1.50, thats what, maybe half of tangible book value?

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Mar 29, 2016 7:20 AM Flag

    thanks lf.......note 1 shows they spent about $1.5 million on property and equipment this year. Is that what you are referring as evidence that they are ramping up?

  • ..at least the last three years....may buy some if I can get a decent price.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Mar 28, 2016 9:17 AM Flag

    csi, snfca isnt buying First Guaranty with any of their stock. Its is all cash and real estate. The 'all stock' transaction refers to the fact that they are buying all the stock of First Guaranty (as opposed to a sale of its assets}.

    "Reppond Holding has only two shareholders. The purchase price for the Reppond Holdings stock will be allocated between the two shareholders of Reppond Holding. One of the shareholders will be paid $1,691,250 in cash at closing; the other shareholder will be paid $5,061,750 in a combination of cash and real estate properties owned by First Guaranty at closing, to the extent such real estate properties have not been sold prior to the closing, with the cash portion of the purchase price payable to such shareholder reduced by an amount equal to the book value of the real estate transferred to such shareholder at closing. The total book value of these real estate properties is $863,997."

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Mar 25, 2016 7:41 AM Flag

    ..to cash on Friday. Nice. Give a thanks to LTF on this one.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Mar 23, 2016 12:27 PM Flag

    uptab, its not always as easy as you make it out to be, at least for the individual investor. But first, I'm not claiming MCZ will go to zero.

    Shorting is not necessarily so easy. For instance, when I checked a few weeks back with TDAmeriturd when MCZ was in the very high twenties, there were no shares available at TDAmeriturd to short MCZ. (I'm not saying I would have shorted, I was thinking just looking at the situation).

    Now you can't short in retirement accounts, so for me that leaves out at Fidelity.

    I believe Interactive Brokers had shares available to short of MCZ back when it approached .30, but not that many. And I dont like to short when not many shares are available b/c the broker can call in the stock at any time....they can force you to cover your short up or down w/o your approval at any time if they dont have the required shares on a given day.

    Right now Ameriturd has zero shares of MCZ available for shorting.

    best.

  • Reply to

    Hey turn_turn: OT re/ EMMS

    by uptabdowntab Mar 21, 2016 9:55 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Mar 22, 2016 10:19 AM Flag

    Is there any reason to believe that EMMS will be able to monetize NextRadio.....they cerainly havent been able to so far and its been years. I just dont see it happening. And if doesnt happen soon, I dont see why it would ever happen.

    I do follow EMMS closely, and have probably listened to the last 40 conference calls.

    They way overpaid for NY station WBLS two years back (I think it was $130 or $140 million), and that where most of their real debt comes from. The non recourse debt they have out related to their lease of their other NY licence to ESPN was just an amazing deal for EMMS., a home run five years back. Without that they might be in trouble.

    I own a bunch of cheap trading shares of EMMS. Biggest negative is probably that interest rights rising could devastate EMMS....and of course terrestrial radio is now a zero to negative growth bus, although certainly a profitable one if you already own the licesnces. Second biggest worry is Smulyan takes them private by going through a bankruptcy reorg on the cheap.

    I also own ROIAK...at this point most of their biz is related to their TV One station, although they also own a bunch of radio...all in the Afro American market. LIke EMMS its very risky, but could move up a ton. They own some high interest debt, if they can make a deal on that debt, and they've intimated they will, the stock could really move.

  • Reply to

    Somebody asked about "story mode" for SFV...

    by microcaptrader Mar 20, 2016 12:31 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Mar 20, 2016 3:30 PM Flag

    micro, thats why I said they may have negative tangible book at the end of the March fy. If that $7.2 million tax asset is reversed, then tangible book will take a huge hit.

    Of course it is a non cash item, but still, it goes to show you what the balance sheet really looks like. The net loss would also be huge, but again....that part of the earnings would really be meaningless since its non cash.

    Also, in the fourth qtr of last year MCZ did that secondary offering which raised what....something like $3.5 million in cash. Turns out that was a genius and prescient move by Darren...........they'd really be in big trouble without that money on the books, and it would be impossible to raise that cash at anywhere near the terms they got.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Mar 20, 2016 10:55 AM Flag

    well, I completely agree with you uptab.

    As for UVE, I have made more money, by far, on the Florida P&C insurers over the past five plus years than any other stocks/sectors. And...since you mentioned, I remember when I first heard of UVE, then trading as UVIH, on the otcbb, an in November 2005 I got an alert from some fellow traders.....UVIH was trading at .08/share, with a p/e well under one. In the next month it went over a buck. And just a short while later it was offering year dividends greater than when I first could have bought some at (in the .12 to .19 area), than quarterly dividends greater than where it was trading at. I knew a bunch of good traders buying lots at those prices (a poster by the name of KnowledgeisKing was one).

    While I did make a lot on UVE, I didnt really start trading it till it fell back to three bucks after running to double digits (as I recall).

  • Reply to

    Growing the bisiness & rewarding shareholders

    by smurfdeej Mar 18, 2016 3:49 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Mar 20, 2016 9:56 AM Flag

    norwalk, impossible for me to know the probability of 'MCZ going to zero', but it seeks like a non-trivial possible outcome. If the 'retrenching' is a failure, and MCZ is not able to return to profitability in the short term, bankruptcy in the mid term is certainly not out of the question....or at least some sort of bad dilution to current stockholders to raise cash. There balance sheet is not strong at all, and they do have a going concern notice on them. We shall see if the going concern notice continues after the auditors look at MCZ' books before the year end March qtr is posted.

    And, it seems possible (though I'm not sure how much) , that MCZ' tangible book value may go pretty low....there's even a chance tangible book value of MCZ goes below zero and is negative when the next quarter and year end in March of '16 is announced. That alone wouldn't mean bankruptcy is in MCZ' future in any way.....but negative tangible book value may cause even more problems with MCZ' bank covenants and its ability to refi its debt at some point in the future.

    best.