westy, RE: "..they [B Riley] were right if not late in doing so! They should have called it a sell."
wow..Monday Morning quarterbacking at its best, Westy!!
Did you forget that you stated on this very thread that you bought back into RCKY after I posted that Riley downgraded RCKY??? It was so obvious that RCKY's shareprice would decline and it was a sell (in your two month old rear view mirror), yet you stated that you bought RCKY at $15 after this downgrade? I was still waiting for the buying opportunity to happen, and right now I'm waiting to see what December brings.
By the way Westy, responding to a buried two month old post on a Message Board thread, with pomposity and witless sarcasm is the definition of a Troll.
Happy Turkey Day!
ceedan, re: "Why is the .41 price significant here?"
Its not significant except that its currently a level of resistance. But if you are long or short or whatever, and for a few days you stare at that number constantly...eyes fixated on the MCZ streaming quote as it moves on every 100 shares, from red to green and back again, carrying your laptop into the john to make sure you don't miss any thousandth of a penny move up or down.....well, you start seeing whatever you want in it, each and every stock conspiracy theory appears in your mind, kinda psychedelically.
Its sorta like if you had to stare at one of those Rorschach inkblot images, but instead of a few seconds, you had to look at it for ten straight hours. You'd start seeing the history of the universe, all your former lovers, aliens from other planets - both good and evil, and maybe where you put the keys you lost three years ago.
westy, re: "..same old tune.."......now thats about the biggest 'pot kettle black' I've ever seen.
I sold at twenty, told you here, told you why I thought estimates were too high, said the high sixteens looked good for a trade, made a few points, mentioned I sold my shares here, they detailed why I thought RCKY was having troubles. All the time, I was trading other stocks as well.
On the other hand you've spent your whole time here, and I mean your entire investing time, saying silly comments and adding nothing to the RCKY thread, or your own wallet. Thatll probably continue.
I was 100% correct. And I gave my reasons, when I originally sold around twenty. When I bought back at 16 and sold for a quick profit...mentioned both buy and sell here. When I said analysts would have to lower their estimates....and they did, albeit months after I thought they would . And when I detailed how and why RCKY was failing in its marketing initiatives. And when I said RCKY had become, in the short run anyway, a play on winter weather. And when I said there still is value in RCKY since it still has strong value as a possible buyout.
I havent called all the stocks I've owned so well....many I've been wrong on. But I have been correct on RCKY, made money both on the way up and on the way down.
hopefully, your general underperformance will change in the near future.
I thought earnings were solid. I listened to the CC and read the earnings report, but I still dont understand the adjustments earnings adjustments regarding their quota share agreements, and I'm not sure if you should take the (I forget, ten or fourteen cents) amount off what FNHC posted to get a true earnings reading. Forgetting about how it effected this quarter, its more important to understand how the forward quarters should estimated.
Anyway, to me, its the difference between a solid quarter, with perhaps some upside to the current price, and a very strong qtr, with good upside to the current price. Problem is, a bunch of analysts have already updated their estimates for the fourth qtr of '15, the first of '16, and all of FY '16, and they really didnt change much at all. I thought this qtr should have caused them to up their estimates for the 4th an 1st qtrs, but basically some went up a penny or two and some went down the same.
As for UVE, they have similar earnings estimates to FNHC, and the share prices are pretty close. FNHC is growing faster and is more conservative; but UVE pays a much higher dividend...and is expanding o/s of Florida. I like FNHC much better, but on a p/e valuation basis, they are pretty close. UVE trades at a wacky price to book value, therefore, I believe it is overvalued, and should come down more than FNHC should come up.
The hurricane season is basically done, and all these plays could make a run b/c of it (I own UIHC). But at this point, if any of these stocks were to move up 10 to 20%....I'd be a seller.
So could FNHC get to $36? Sure....it did before. But there's some risk at these levels, imo. FNHC did state in their conf call that they are lowering their insurance rates in the mid single digit area this coming year. They said they are simply passing along their reinsurance saving to their customers. But I think this Florida insurance field is becoming much more competitive.
what you talking about...they didnt use it 'at the treshold of non-shareholder approval.
And by the way, those of us who bought at then...as it fell back to a low of .36, and traded under .40 for a long time.....had the chance to sell all or part as high as .75/share...over 100% return. And for those that held until now, well if they want out right now, they'll have to suffer with between a 15% to 25% return.
its two positive quarters, the next two, right? MCZ hasnt had a positive quarter in a long long time.
..biggest takeaway from me was this one line from the earnings pr which I shortened a bit:
"We [MCZ management]....remain confident that our business strategy...will help us return to sales growth and profitability in fiscal 2016."
MCZ believes they will be profitable for this Fiscal Year which ends in less than four months. So far, MCZ has lost eight cents/share in the first two quarters. So for MCZ to "be profitable" for the entire year, they have to make north of .08/share in the next two quarters combined. Lets say they only make .01/share year. of profit this fiscal year. That means MCZ would have to make .09/share for the rest of the year. B/C of their seasonality and the holiday season, the vast majority of that profit would be made this current quarter, ending 12/31/15......so maybe they make .07/share for the quarter, and .02 in March. And thats with only a profit of one penny.
Maybe the price targets that MCZ would go to $1.50 or $2.00+ won't happen. But MCZ is trading at .47/share afterhours. Do you think MCZ' guidance for eight cents per share in earnings over these next two quarters should send MCZ higher than .47? Heck, .even a .75/share price would be 40% higher than .47.
So there are valid negatives with MCZ. But one positive we do have is that MCZ is reitterating strong guidance for the December and March quarters. And the afterhours price seems very cheap given that guidance.
hope, did you lighten up a bit during the runnup?
I did not.....well I sold less than one percent of my total shares around .74 on a small fill, and the price never returned there.
I guess the good news on MCZ' dip is that at around .60/share, we're not expecting much out of the September quarter.
I wrote a very long response to your last question to me yesterday, but I dont see it. Anyway, I dont have the time right now...but I sold most yesterday around $32. Although, as I mentioned, FNHC has lots of momentum, and its not expensive.
Hey catj, Are you aware that the .41/share quarter that UIHC posted last year sent UIHC skyrocketing to $27 in just a few months....they went over $27 in February before the q4 earnings report....based on a .41/share quarter. Maybe you haven't followed UIHC too long.
Since a .41 qtr last year sent UIHC OVER $27 in just a few months, maybe a .38 quarter (which as I mentioned is filled with additional costs that will start heading lower very soon) could take UIHC to $20? I mean .38 is an absolutely huge improvement for UIHC over the past few quarters, and this is their seasonally weakest quarter.
I guess we'll see what happens.
estimates were for .22/share and they made .38/share.
The great thing, is that even with all the additional money UIHC stated they are spending to upgrade their sytsems, including their computer hardware/software, forecasting, and for upgrading their computer systems, claims management etc....and not even talking about the one time professional costs they must have incurred to in their purchase of NY based interboro insurance during the quarter......they still were able to beat and post a very strong quarter.
And, UIHC has stated, that they expect these additional expenditures to not only come down in 2016, but they will lead to a significantly lower cost structure.
And of course, the hurricane season is now over, we should expect earnings to begin to increase sequentially for the next three quarters.
come in weaker than expected, as all of RCKY's recent sales and branding initiatives have basically failed. We'll see if thirteen holds in the near term. That being said, there's still a ton of value in RCKY, and it retains the potential to be bought out for much higher prices.
Since their branding/sales growth initiatives have all flopped, whats left is a nice flat to low revenue growth biz which still has the ability to generate eps growth by cost cutting.
The next two...maybe even three quarters, are all about the weather. If nasty cold snowy weather hits, revenue and earnings will get a nice bump. If the weather were to be unseasonally warm from now through March, then revenue and earnings will suffer. With no brands outperforming, the weather is the only thing that will drive (or possibly dive) revenue growth over the next six months or more.
Last years q4, and q1 and q2 of 2015 were basically saved by bad winter weather with loads of snow, and a fantastic job of cutting costs by RCKY. That could happen again. But imo, that strong winter weather of last year kinda provided false optimism about RCKY's future.